The United States and China are rumored to be discussing mutual visits to nuclear facilities. Scholars warn that Beijing is seeking concessions on the Taiwan issue.

In response to China's continued expansion of its nuclear weapons, CNN quoted people familiar with the matter as reporting on the 6th that the Trump administration has internally discussed the idea of ​​mutual visits to nuclear facilities with China and plans to continue to promote this possibility in physical meetings in the coming months. However, experts warn that China has always regarded nuclear arms negotiations as a tool to obtain political concessions on the Taiwan issue, rather than based on pure arms control goals.

The report pointed out that after the last arms control agreement between the United States and Russia expired last year, the United States has become increasingly concerned about China's rapidly expanding nuclear weapons program. During his first term, U.S. President Trump pushed for the establishment of a trilateral arms control agreement between the United States, Russia, and China, but no substantial progress was made. People familiar with the matter said that the idea of ​​mutual visits was first proposed by Chinese officials during a meeting with U.S. officials this year. The two sides discussed the possibility of visiting the U.S. Department of Energy’s national laboratories and Chinese counterparts; the United States is also open to discussing mutual visits to nuclear test sites.

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Since the beginning of this year, most working-level nuclear weapons-related discussions between U.S. and Chinese officials have been held on the sidelines of meetings of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council. They are still informal and at a preliminary stage. The idea of ​​allowing visits to nuclear facilities is expected to advance U.S. efforts to engage China on strategic stability issues and could become the basis for a trilateral agreement.

U.S. officials revealed that when Trump met with Chinese President Xi Jinping last month, he reiterated his support for trilateral arms control negotiations between the United States, Russia and China, but the two did not mention the possibility of visiting nuclear facilities during the conversation.

However, China still insists that it will not participate in any discussions that may limit the expansion of its nuclear arms. The United States currently has about 5,000 nuclear warheads and China has about 600, but it is rapidly expanding its nuclear weapons infrastructure and is expected to produce hundreds more nuclear warheads in the next 10 years.

Experts and former U.S. officials are positive about the idea, but have reservations about whether it can achieve a breakthrough quickly. Some former officials pointed out that Beijing may have thrown out this proposal just to create a good atmosphere or to show its willingness to engage in dialogue on nuclear weapons issues, or even with "bad motives."

Paul Dean, the former acting assistant secretary of state at the State Department who was in charge of arms control affairs, told CNN that mutual visits will be a "very valuable confidence-building measure" and can provide information and diplomatic basis for the two countries to reduce nuclear risks. However, the US government must "open its eyes wide" and face any nuclear negotiations with China prudently.

Gerald Brown, a former State Department intelligence analyst specializing in China's military at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), a US think tank, pointed out that if the mutual visit mechanism can be implemented, it may indeed effectively reduce the nuclear risks between the United States and China, but he is not optimistic about this. Brown warned that China's continued expansion of nuclear armaments is deeply linked to its political goals, especially its aggressive ambitions against Taiwan; from a historical perspective, China has long regarded nuclear weapons negotiations as a tool to obtain political concessions on the Taiwan issue.