
《商报》与《日报》评论分析德国执政联盟对华政策的历史性转折及欧盟贸易防御机制的强化
德法两国提议赋予欧盟委员会更大权限,以便在必要时将特定国家排除在欧洲统一市场之外。此举标志着德国对华政策从妥协转向强硬,旨在应对中国在补贴、技术转移及汇率政策方面带来的经济挑战,并强化欧盟的贸易防御能力。
AI-generated summary
德法两国正推动欧盟建立新的反制工具,以应对中国在经贸领域的不公平竞争行为。此举反映了德国执政联盟对华政策从以往的妥协立场向更强硬的贸易防御路线转变。
(德国之声中文网)《商报》评论写道,德法两国联手要求欧盟设立反制工具,标志着德国执政联盟的对华政策正在发生重大改变:多年以来,柏林对北京的天真态度正在成为过去。这篇题为《德国正在告别天真》的评论写道:
“德国对华政策的这场历史性转折,本来其深远意义如何强调都不为过,但却出人意料的没有得到应有的赞誉。在内政方面上,执政联盟时常为一些鸡毛蒜皮的小事吵得喋喋不休,甚至不惜为食糖税问题自毁政治前程。而在此背景下,默茨总理却在对华政策问题上实现了一次重大突破。为此,联邦政府的工作本应得到久违的认可。
尽管各自的出发点并不相同,但德法两国仍就一份对华政策的立场性文件达成共识,而且这种共识已经远远超出了最低公约数的范畴。德国和法国愿意赋予欧盟使用反制工具的更大权限,令欧盟只需‘按动按钮’,就可以将中国排除出欧洲统一市场。就在三年之前,这一切还是无法想象的事情。
多年以来,尽管北京已经向德国发起了非正式的经济战,但德国仍对北京保持温和立场。德国之所以不敢采取行动,有着多方面的原因:德国高度依赖中国的关键原材料、德国企业离不开中国市场、以及俄罗斯天然气的供应中断。公平地说,对于德国这样一个崇尚自由贸易理念的国家来说,要彻底改变自身的经济基因,当然是一件特别困难的事情。
过去几个月当中,默茨已经意识到,德国正处在所谓‘中国冲击2.0’的震中。如果继续任由中国受到亿万补贴的产品涌入市场,任由中国单方面转移技术,任由中国以令人生疑的汇率政策获取出口优势,那么,德国的工业基础最终将所剩无几。”
《商报》的评论写道,此次对华政策的转变并不意味着德国会走上贸易保护主义的道路。相反,德国政府仍将致力于同中国建立良好的贸易关系,但良好贸易关系的基础恰恰是公平,而这也正是目前双边关系的症结所在。
”德法两国支持欧盟捍卫自身利益的做法,并非没有风险。中国随时都有可能采取反制措施,并给欧洲带来严重经济后果。当初,美国总统特朗普发起对华关税战,中国领导人习近平则叫停了稀土出口,最终特朗普只能甘拜下风。
但欧洲人也必须对自身的优势有所认识,毕竟欧盟也同样拥有反制杠杆。美国市场对中国关上大门之后,中国已经离不开欧洲市场。尽管德法提案的措辞尚未正式敲定,但其核心内容却是经过深思熟虑的:既有胡萝卜,也有大棒;既发出了威慑,也发出了对话建议。提案中已经考虑了中国叫停稀土出口的可能性。与此同时,提案还排除了中国挑拨各成员国关系,从而使欧盟无法启动反制工具的可能性。当然,谁都无法排除中国采取报复行动的可能性。但因为怕死,而不敢自卫,就等于在选择经济上的自杀。”
“显然这是一款为中国量身打造的武器”
德国和法国提议赋予欧盟委员会更广泛的权力,使其能在短时间内将一个国家完全排除在欧洲内部市场之外。柏林出版的《日报》写道,德法提案虽声称并不针对特定国家,却显然是针对中欧贸易的失衡问题:
“新的强硬路线之所以值得关注,有多方面的原因:一方面,默茨的对华政策迄今为止一直以妥协为主。上一次欧盟峰会期间,默茨还就不要引发贸易战发出过警告。这种妥协立场现在显然已经成为过去。马克龙以贸易保护主义为主导的倡议占据了上风,也战胜了历来踩刹车的德国汽车工业。
但另一方面,欧盟现在就已经拥有强有力的贸易政策武器,只是从未投入过实战。这其中最重要的就是‘反胁迫工具’(ACI)。2023年引入的这一工具就已经赋予了欧盟征收报复性关税,并限制相关国家进入内部市场的权限。
ACI工具本来有过几次正式启动的机会,比如前不久欧盟同美国总统特朗普之间就关税和贸易产生争执之际。但布鲁塞尔始终不敢迈出这一步。至于,欧洲人现在为何急于要拥有一种更加锋利的武器,不得而知。显然这是一款为中国量身打造的武器,但各方均不愿承认这一点。柏林方面宣称,有关提案‘并不预设针对目标’。简言之,这个提案并不是为特定国家而制定的。因为预设目标将违反贸易法,并等同于经济制裁。而在制裁问题上,欧盟必须获得所有成员国的同意才能实施,这显然不是默茨和马克龙想要得到的结果。当初制裁俄罗斯时,就总是因为个别成员国的反对而不了了之。而在对付中国的问题上,德法希望欧盟能够‘快速开火’。”
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
欧盟将进一步讨论并完善针对非欧盟国家的贸易反制工具提案。
Likely · Within months

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