Shall we meet the leaders of North America... U.S. experts say, “The possibility has increased, but this is a show-and-tell meeting.”

Ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump's trip to Asia, U.S. diplomacy and security experts have predicted that the possibility of a summit meeting between President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has actually increased after the midterm elections.

As President Trump, whose political position has weakened due to his defeat in the November 3 midterm elections, seeks diplomatic results, North Korea may also try to use the relatively weak President Trump as a negotiating partner.

However, since North Korea is demanding recognition of its status as a nuclear weapons state as a condition for the summit, a cautious opinion was also raised that it would be difficult for actual talks to take place or lead to substantive results.

Former State Department Special Representative for North Korea Stephen Biegun, who led working-level negotiations with North Korea during the first Trump administration, said at a joint seminar at the Sejong Institute and Stimson Institute on the 9th (local time), "I think both President Trump and Chairman Kim will be willing to participate in a kind of show-off summit that will focus the world's attention on them."

Former Representative Biegun analyzed that North Korea feels that it is overly dependent on China and Russia, and may seek to expand its involvement with the United States to balance its relations with these countries.

In particular, he pointed out that it may be difficult for North Korea to continue to receive the level of financial and technical support it expects from Russia, with which it has been closely cooperating since the Ukraine war.

He said that discussions are underway in South Korea and Japan about deploying U.S. nuclear weapons or arming their own nuclear weapons, and predicted that not only China and Russia but also North Korea will react to these moves.

Former Representative Biegun evaluated that resuming diplomacy with North Korea would not be easy due to the Ukraine-Iran war and the U.S. midterm election defeat, but suggested that the U.S. should maintain negotiating cards such as the principle of North Korea's denuclearization, sanctions against North Korea, U.S. troops stationed in Korea, and ROK-U.S. joint exercises.

Victor Cha, Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), also said in a press briefing that day, "I think the possibility of a North Korea-US summit has increased after the midterm elections."

Chairman Cha said that President Trump will focus on building on his accomplishments after his defeat in the midterm elections, and explained, “The area in which President Trump personally invested a lot of time during his two terms in office was North Korea.”

He also predicted that North Korea would view President Trump as "weaker, more vulnerable and an easier target," and would want contact with North Korea to prevent President Trump from acting as unpredictable as he did in Iran or Venezuela.

On the other hand, former Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell met with journalists from the Asia-Pacific region and expressed skepticism about the possibility of substantive progress in the North Korea-US summit.

Former Deputy Minister Campbell said, “From what I understand, North Korea has conveyed its position that the only condition under which a summit can be considered is if the United States recognizes North Korea as a nuclear state.”

He went on to explain that it is “almost impossible” for President Trump to accept this and that “both Republicans and Democrats in the United States will immediately backlash.”

At the same time, considering the political conditions after the midterm elections, he predicted that even if the leaders of North Korea and the United States meet, "it will be difficult to achieve progress beyond a kind of handshake."

Former Deputy Secretary Campbell said he understood that President Trump had asked Chinese President Xi Jinping for help in promoting dialogue between North Korea and the United States, but assessed that it has become more difficult to resume diplomacy with North Korea as President Trump's political position in the United States has narrowed.

During his first term in office, in 2018-2019, President Trump held two summit meetings with Chairman Kim and also met at Panmunjom, but after the collapse of the Hanoi talks, North Korea-US negotiations reached a stalemate.

President Trump is scheduled to attend the Quad-ASEAN summit in Manila, Philippines on the 17th and 18th and then the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Shenzhen, China on the 18th and 19th, so attention is being paid to whether this trip will lead to contact between the leaders of North Korea and the United States.