U.S. President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet tomorrow for the second time this year. National security officials know that Beijing is launching three waves of offensives. First, it continues to support the CRINK authoritarian group, raising the cost of the United States' response to international affairs and creating conditions for concessions in the first island chain. It then uses think tank reports and letters from scholars calling for the abandonment of the first island chain. Finally, it uses procurement and coordination with CRINK to induce the United States to lower its island chain security commitments and delay arms sales to Taiwan.
National security officials pointed out that compared with the first Sichuan-Xi meeting in May this year, China launched three waves of offensives before this meeting. The first wave is to take advantage of the U.S. midterm elections and respond to pressure from multiple battlefields such as the Middle East and Russia and Ukraine. By continuing to covertly support "authoritarian gangs" (CRINK) such as Iran, Russia, and North Korea, it increases the cost of the U.S.'s response to international affairs and creates conditions for the U.S. to make concessions in the first island chain.
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The official went on to say that in the second wave, China used think tank reports and letters from scholars in an attempt to influence U.S. decision-making, echoing Beijing's narrative and labeling Taiwan, Japan and the Philippines as "troublemakers", advocating that the first island chain should be abandoned, and at the same time increasing pressure around the first island chain, taking the opportunity to undermine the current situation. The third wave uses "blank checks" such as purchasing and coordinating CRINK in an attempt to "precisely target" the United States, and imposes conditions: delaying arms sales to Taiwan and reducing military presence and security commitments to the island chain.
National security officials analyze that for Beijing, delaying U.S. arms sales to Taiwan means delaying Taiwan's military build-up and extending and expanding the threat to the island chain. Therefore, delaying U.S. arms sales to Taiwan is regarded by Beijing as the first "city wall brick" for the U.S. to withdraw from the first island chain. Beijing is accustomed to using war and talks simultaneously to simultaneously promote changes in the status quo in an attempt to convince the outside world that the situation will ease as long as the United States lets go. In fact, it takes the opportunity to expand the scope of its control.
In terms of specific operating methods, officials gave an example. A think tank released a report on September 10, advocating that the United States adopt a clear policy of non-involvement in Taiwan and gradually move its military forces to the second island chain. It even suggested withdrawing US military training personnel from Taiwan, reducing the US military stationed in Japan, and accepting various options that may lead to Taiwan's political compromise with Beijing. Chinese state media simultaneously quoted Taiwanese media reports to create the impression that "even Taiwan itself is discussing a U.S. withdrawal." Beijing selected and amplified this plan to make "retreat to the second island chain" appear to have entered the mainstream of U.S. policy.
Officials gave another example: Chinese scholar Da Wei published an article in Foreign Affairs on September 7, arguing that the establishment of a new "strategic stability" relationship between the United States and China should be based on recognition of China's sovereignty over Taiwan and public opposition to Taiwan's independence. He also warned that the resumption of arms sales may endanger "strategic stability." He also said that if the United States accepts Beijing's sovereignty claims against Taiwan and reduces its involvement, the security situation in the first island chain will change in a direction favorable to China.
Officials said that Hong Kong media recently released a video claiming that former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton advocated abandoning Taiwan, adding that she had never said that "cross-strait reunification is the greatest common denominator." However, the fact is that Hillary mentioned in a TV interview that the U.S. approach in the Middle East may have caused Xi Jinping to misjudge the U.S. military's inability to support its allies. Xi may therefore think that he can force Taiwan to give up, but it was taken out of context and maliciously edited.
