The Hague International Arbitration Tribunal rules that the Indus Water Treaty remains valid

(Deutsche Welle Chinese website) With the mediation of the World Bank, India and Pakistan reached the Indus Water Treaty in 1960, which allocated and managed the use rights of six rivers flowing through the two countries. Roughly speaking, India has obtained the right to use the three rivers in the east - Ravi, Beas and Sutlej, while Pakistan has obtained the right to use the three rivers in the west - Indus, Jhelum and Chenab. However, India also has the right to build hydropower projects on rivers in the west.

The treaty has withstood the test of war and long-term confrontation between the two nuclear-armed powers. However, after a bloody attack in Indian-controlled Kashmir resulted in the death of 26 people, India announced a series of diplomatic and economic measures, including: In April 2025, India announced the suspension of the Indus Water Treaty. New Delhi accused Islamabad of supporting the attack. Pakistan refutes this.

Pakistan welcomes arbitration decision

Millions of Pakistanis depend on the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab rivers for drinking water, irrigation water and daily needs.

After India suspended the treaty, Pakistan appealed to the International Arbitral Tribunal in The Hague.

On Monday (August 31), the International Arbitration Tribunal in The Hague ruled that the 1960 Indus Water Treaty remains valid.

Pakistan welcomed it and argued that India must still abide by the treaty. However, the Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs claimed that the "so-called arbitral tribunal" was "illegally constituted." "The tribunal does not have any jurisdiction over India's sovereign decisions," the Indian Ministry of External Affairs said.

Expert: India questions dispute resolution mechanism itself

Ayesha Siddiqa, a senior fellow at King's College London and a Pakistani political scientist, told DW that if India refuses to accept it, it may be difficult to implement the arbitration decision "because the arbitral tribunal does not have enforcement power."

But she said the ruling did give Pakistan a moral advantage.

For years, India and Pakistan have been at odds over how to interpret the treaty, particularly over India's plans to build hydropower projects on three rivers in the west.

Uttam Kumar Sinha, a senior fellow at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defense Research in New Delhi, said that India now not only disputes the interpretation of the treaty, but also "the treaty's dispute settlement mechanism itself."

Limited actual impact?

The actual impact will also depend on the specific steps India takes to build infrastructure on its western rivers.

Shanthie Mariet D'Souza, founder of the think tank Mantraya, said: "To effectively stop or significantly change the flow of the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab rivers, large infrastructure such as dams, canals or large water storage systems is required. Such infrastructure currently does not exist." In addition, geographical and technical limitations also restrict India's ability to intercept these rivers.

Sinha holds a similar view. "India cannot simply 'bark' the rivers in the west."

Large-scale water storage and diversion projects take years or even decades, require massive investment and difficult construction in the Himalayas, while also meeting environmental requirements and obtaining domestic approvals.

Read more: Can India and Pakistan resolve their Indus water dispute?

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