Russia, the U.S. and Ukraine resume talks after 9 months, Europe strives to come to the table, Russia and Ukraine continue to attack each other

A new round of tripartite talks between Russia, the United States and Ukraine was held in Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates, on November 10 to explore ways to promote a political settlement of the Ukrainian crisis. The first day of talks lasted nearly four hours. This was the first time the three parties had restarted face-to-face consultations in nine months since the negotiations stalled in February this year. The talks will continue on the 11th. Ukraine said the talks were constructive and the United States commented positively, while Russia was cautious about a ceasefire. At the same time, military exchanges between Russia and Ukraine continue. Experts believe that the political considerations of all parties are inconsistent and the pace of negotiations is also out of sync, making it difficult to achieve a substantial breakthrough.

Focus on humanitarian issues and security

At noon on November 10, local time, delegations from Russia, the United States and Ukraine held a new round of tripartite talks in Abu Dhabi. The Russian delegation was led by Russian Presidential Assistant Medinsky and included Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov and Galuzin. Members of the Uzbek delegation include Director of the Foreign Intelligence Service Umerov, Director of the Presidential Office Budanov and others. U.S. representatives include U.S. presidential envoy Witkov and Trump’s son-in-law Kushner.

Zelensky calls the first day of talks constructive

After the first day of talks, Ukrainian President Zelensky posted on social media that he had received the Ukrainian negotiating team’s report on the first day of talks in Abu Dhabi and that he believed the talks were constructive and substantive.

Zelensky said that the release of captured personnel is a priority for discussion in the talks. In addition, the three parties also discussed the specific content of Ukraine's security guarantees and the mechanism to ensure the long-term effectiveness of the guarantees.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister: Direct meeting between Ukrainian and Russian leaders is expected to speed up the end of the conflict

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Serbiga said on the 10th that during the trilateral negotiations between Ukraine, the United States and Russia held in Abu Dhabi, the United Arab Emirates, Ukraine put forward a number of core demands: easing the situation, implementing a ceasefire, establishing a security mechanism, and promoting a meeting between Ukrainian President Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Serbiga believes that a direct meeting between the leaders of Ukraine and Russia is expected to speed up the end of the conflict. Uzbekistan also submitted special ceasefire plans in the Black Sea and energy fields, and is currently waiting for Russia's response.

Russian Foreign Minister: There will not be another ceasefire when the situation in Russia and Ukraine is unclear

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said in Moscow on the 10th that regardless of whether it is called a "truce" or a "ceasefire", Russia will not agree to it without knowing the subsequent development of the situation in Russia and Ukraine.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Glushko also said on the same day that Western countries as a whole hope that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will be delayed, rather than creating conditions for a peaceful resolution of the Ukrainian crisis.

U.S., Europe and Ukraine coordinate before meeting, Europe seeks to participate in follow-up negotiations

Before the trilateral talks between Russia, the United States, and Ukraine, representatives from the United States, the European Union, France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, Ukraine, and NATO held talks that day to coordinate their negotiating positions on the Ukrainian issue. Participants stated that any future arrangements on the Ukraine issue must respect Ukraine’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and independent decision-making.

U.S. Secretary of State Rubio, who attended the G7 foreign ministers' meeting in Paris, France, said on the 10th that the three-party talks were "very productive" and the scope of the talks should be expanded to include the European side in the negotiations.

In an interview on the 10th, Zelensky also said that Europe should participate in negotiations aimed at ending the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, as well as discussions on the provision of security guarantees to Ukraine by the United States and Europe.

Talk and fight at the same time

Russia and Ukraine continue to attack each other on the battlefield

Although the three parties have returned to the negotiating table to seek a solution to the Ukrainian crisis, armed attacks between Russia and Ukraine continue.

Ganza, director of the Military Administration of Ukraine's Dnipropetrovsk region, posted on social media on the afternoon of the 10th that the Russian army attacked a key infrastructure in Dnipro that day, killing two people and injuring at least four others.

The Ministry of Energy of Ukraine posted on social media on the 10th that the Russian army continued to launch attacks on Ukraine’s energy system, and many substations, thermal power plants, and oil and gas infrastructure were attacked. Most Ukrainian states have implemented rolling blackouts and industrial power rationing.

The Russian Ministry of Defense issued a notice on the 10th stating that the Russian armed forces continue to use drones to attack energy infrastructure that supports the operation of Ukrainian military industrial enterprises, as well as ships transporting military supplies and dual-use goods.

The Russian Ministry of Defense also said that in the past night, Russian air defense forces intercepted and destroyed 155 Ukrainian fixed-wing drones over Novgorod, Bryansk, Belgorod, Kursk, Kaluga, Smolensk, Krasnodar and other regions.

Russia, the United States and Ukraine each have their own considerations

It is difficult for the three-party talks to produce substantial results

Special commentator Su Xiaohui believes that as the trilateral talks between Russia, the United States and Ukraine resume, what cannot be ignored is the impact of the results of the US midterm elections on the talks, as the pace of the parties is not synchronized.

Special commentator Su Xiaohui: First of all, the Republican Party suffered a setback in the mid-term elections, and the US government is eager to divert domestic attention from the Iran issue and the US-Iran standoff. The U.S. government emphasizes that progress can be made in dealing with the Russia-Ukraine conflict in the near future to attract the attention of the American people. However, when the United States blames the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on the conflicts between the leaders of the two countries, such simplistic operations and attempts to reinforce the situation cannot reduce the difficulty of subsequent resolution of the crisis.

Special commentator Su Xiaohui: As for Ukraine, the US government is still continuing its previous thinking of forcing Ukraine to sue for peace in order to reduce the difficulty of resolving the Ukrainian crisis. What Ukraine is now waiting for is that after the new U.S. Congress takes office on January 3 next year, it is possible to increase military aid to Ukraine and increase sanctions against Russia. Russia believes that this transition period is a window period and is eager to promote changes in U.S.-Russian relations. Even if the subsequent administration of the U.S. government is restricted by Congress, Russia still has the opportunity to set the agenda and influence the direction of U.S. foreign policy.

Special commentator Su Xiaohui: For Europe, whether this negotiation can be put on the table is an important observation angle. But Europe is also waiting for changes, especially paying attention to changes in U.S. policy after January 3 next year.