
An analysis of expert nominations and Opta statistics on the competition for the European title and a follow-up of the most prominent emerging talents
With the start of the league stage in the Champions League, experts Julien Laurent and Guillem Balague review the chances of the teams nominated for the title, led by Arsenal, Paris Saint-Germain and Bayern Munich, while highlighting the most promising players and the predictive “Opta” statistics.
AI-generated summary
The Champions League returns with a new system for the league stage, with the major clubs seeking to compete for the title that will be decided in Madrid next June.
The Champions League is back again, so who will carry the famous trophy in Madrid on June 5 next year?
Paris Saint-Germain is seeking to win the title for the third consecutive season, with the start of the league stage on Tuesday.
Five English clubs will try to stop him, led by Arsenal, the most prominent candidate to achieve a better result than last season’s runner-up.
We asked football experts Julien Laurent and Guillem Balague for their nominations for the tournament winner, and also took a look at what the statistics say.
Who are the favorites to win?
Julien Laurent: If Paris Saint-Germain succeeds in achieving the title for the third time in a row, it will be an amazing achievement. But I don't think they will do it. I think that winning two titles in a row is really exceptional, but three titles in a row is impossible unless you have Cristiano Ronaldo in your team, which Paris Saint-Germain does not have.
I think they will be close to the title. I expect them to at least reach the semi-finals, but striving to achieve three consecutive titles is difficult.
I don't fully believe in Jose Mourinho's project with Real Madrid, so I expect Bayern Munich and Arsenal to reach the final. They may be, along with Paris Saint-Germain, the two teams that deserved to reach this stage more than others during the past two seasons.
As for the winner of the title, I will choose Arsenal. He has the best defense line in Europe by a wide margin, and this is what decides titles. I expect Paris Saint-Germain to reach the semi-finals, Bayern Munich to the final and lose, while Arsenal will win the title.
Guillem Balague: With Paris Saint-Germain's erratic start to the season, we see how difficult it is to maintain the same level. Luis Enrique continues to push the team to be at the forefront of modern football, something that requires a dynamic style and relentless pressing.
With the league stage being considered a space for experimentation and preparation for the second half of the season, there will be a transitional period, and we may witness strange results before reaching the decisive stage starting in January.
Since the basic pillars of the team are still there, I expect them to come very close to winning the title again.
But Barcelona offers great levels. It would be beneficial for him to sign another centre-back and an outright striker. This is what Hansi Flick would have liked to add to take the team to the next level, but he feels that the team is already on its way to the top.
Arsenal has found a way to win regularly, and with this burden off their shoulders, the players feel more free, which will help them perform better.
I expect these three teams to be in the semi-finals, unless two of them meet before then. As for the fourth team, depending on the draw, it may be Bayern Munich, Real Madrid or Manchester City.
Who are the players worth following?
Julien Laurent: I've chosen five players to follow in the Champions League this season. The first is Jude Bellingham. This is a very important season for him on both the individual and collective levels with Real Madrid under Mourinho's leadership, and in the position of playmaker No. 10, which is a role that I think suits him very well.
After a very good World Cup, I think this momentum will continue. I expect him to score a lot of goals and be a strong and decisive player.
Nico Paz, Como's attacking midfielder, is at the heart of everything the team does with the ball. It's Cuomo's first appearance in the Champions League, and his coach is Cesc Fabregas, so it's a very interesting team to watch.
Paz is a very special player and is still developing, but he will be a high-class player very soon.
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia is the “Man of the Champions League”. Over the past two seasons, he was amazing with Paris Saint-Germain, especially last season on the left wing, where he can go deep or go outside, and pose a threat with his right and left foot.
He scored great goals and has outstanding technical abilities. I think he is competing for the Ballon d'Or. He is one of those players that forces you to stay on the edge of your seat. He is a player to watch.
Lance returned to the Champions League after competing with Paris Saint-Germain until the end in the French League last season, and Ismailo Ganiou is one of its most prominent players.
He is a strong 21-year-old centre-back, good with the ball, very fast and physically strong. I expect him to leave at the end of the season for one of the big Premier League clubs.
Since his departure from Aston Villa and his move to Roma, Donyell Malen has performed at amazing levels, scoring almost a goal in every match as an outright striker in coach Jean Piero Gasperini's team.
Roma's return to the Champions League is great, and the team is very fun to watch again. I think we will see Malen regain his best form.
Guillem Balague: Bayern Munich striker Harry Kane is campaigning for the Ballon d'Or. He deserves to be among the candidates, and I do not expect his level to decline, especially since Bayern's playing style suits him very well.
Teenager Lamine Yamal is hungry for more and has set his sights on the Champions League. Hansi Flick wants a team that defends with an advanced streak and great passion, which gives Yamal the space to shine.
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia has risen to another level, and with Paris Saint-Germain reaching advanced stages, he will continue to save the team and win big matches. He will be a Ballon d'Or winner in the near future.
Shakhtar Donetsk has a long tradition of turning Brazilian talent into multi-million-dollar European signings, and 20-year-old Brazilian striker Kawa Elias could be the next name on the list.
After a difficult season with Martin Odegaard last year due to injuries, the Norwegian has started this season very well. Odegaard can control matches, and his team, now more confident, will need him to fill that role.
He seems ready to take on the responsibility of leadership.
What do the statistics say?
According to Opta, Arsenal, last season's runner-up, is the most prominent candidate to win the Champions League, with a percentage of 20.4%, while Bayern Munich, which lost to Paris Saint-Germain in the semi-finals, is narrowly behind, with a percentage of 20%.
Paris Saint-Germain's chances of winning its third European title in a row are 7.3%, placing it in fourth place, while Manchester City, the 2023 champion, comes in third place with 12.7%.
The five English clubs rank among the top 10 teams in terms of odds of winning the title, and all of them received more than 50% in terms of odds of qualifying for the round of 16.
Regarding the league stage, Opta believes that Liverpool has the easiest draw among English clubs according to the power classification, while Stuttgart has the easiest journey in general, and Inter Milan has the easiest group among first-level clubs.
Arsenal also received a relatively favorable draw. Although he signed with Real Madrid and Bayern Munich from the first level, the draw also placed him with the two lowest ranked players in the tournament, Sabah of Azerbaijan and Slovan Bratislava.
On the other hand, Manchester City faces the most difficult matches among English clubs, as only five teams received a more difficult draw overall.
City will meet two European giants from the first level, Barcelona and Paris Saint-Germain, while Napoli, ranked 24th in the classification, represents a particularly difficult test from the third level.
Last season, Arsenal finished the league stage at the top after having, according to Opta, one of the easiest match lists, while Bayern Munich finished second despite having the most difficult group of opponents among all 36 teams.
How will the four teams participating for the first time perform?
Guillem Balague: I expect Cuomo to reach the playoffs.
But it is likely that he will not be able to qualify.
Sabah Azerbaijan is an interesting team, and they have achieved their success based on organisation. But playing away matches against Arsenal and Manchester United, and hosting Barcelona and Borussia Dortmund, represents a very difficult start.
The team will give us a surprise result or two, but it won't be enough to qualify.
As for Viking, they will face Bayern Munich, Atletico Madrid, Napoli and Aston Villa, but Norwegian football is full of smart and competitive coaches, players and teams.
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