Although the “preliminaries” for the outbreak of direct competition in the Arctic region, between Russia and China on the one hand, and the United States and its partners in NATO on the other hand, have been present for a long time, the acceleration of developments in the situation in the region has been closely linked to the repercussions of the “Ukraine war” through the impact of geopolitical and economic processes in the region on the confrontation.
Russia is using Arctic oil and gas projects (particularly the Northern Sea Route and new power plants) to generate revenues used to support the protracted war against Ukraine. Then, the remoteness of the infrastructure in the Pole, and, for example, the Vostok oil project in Taimyr, helped Russia greatly to reduce the operational and military risks of attacks on ports in the Black Sea and the Baltic Sea, which ensured the export of raw materials to Asian markets.
Also, the emergence of new supply routes facilitated operations to circumvent Western sanctions against Russia, and gave it a wide margin to move in close cooperation with China, in the face of the efforts of Western countries, including the United States, to limit Russian technological and military penetration in the Arctic. He linked this to containing Moscow in general in light of the war on Ukraine and the increasing risks to the countries surrounding Russia, especially Norway, Sweden, and Finland, which are close to the Pole, and the countries of the Baltic Basin (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) bordering the region.
Nearly three decades ago, during a period of international détente and cooperation, eight countries (Denmark, Iceland, Canada, Norway, Russia, the United States, Finland, and Sweden), whose coasts and islands make up the Arctic Ocean, established the “Arctic Council.” In addition to the States, indigenous associations of the region participate independently in the Council. It is the only major diplomatic body in which indigenous elders sit at the same table with state representatives.
Then, the rotating presidency of the Arctic Council moved from Iceland to Russia a year before the outbreak of war in Ukraine, which led to the stagnation of the organization’s activities until today. Among the eight member states of the Arctic Council, five are founding members of NATO, and two other countries (Finland and Sweden) joined the alliance after the outbreak of war because of what they considered the “aggressive behavior” of the eighth member... that is, Russia.
Russian preemption of the West's movements
There is no doubt that Russia has taken great strides ahead of its partners in this “Council” to revitalize its movements in the region. According to Western reports, Russia has long turned the Arctic into a military testing ground. In the mid-twentieth century, Russia conducted toxic atmospheric nuclear tests on the Novaya Zemlya archipelago. Years ago, it tested a nuclear-powered missile in the North, resulting in an accident and radioactive contamination. At the same time, Russia is testing increasingly advanced weapons systems in the Arctic, which has long been a testing ground for lethal weapons, including nuclear ones. Also, Russia is prioritizing modernizing its military forces in the Arctic, rebuilding former Soviet military bases, and developing airstrips.
However, what is new and most prominent in this file is the acceleration of the pace of Russian movements in the Arctic, in cooperation with China during the last two years, in a way that angered the West and called on it to launch accelerated activity in the region.
The most prominent move came during the announcement two weeks ago of the launch of a large joint investment in the Arctic region. The launch of oil exports from the region carried an important message in this regard, in addition to launching a strategy for investment and development in projects in the region for a period of 10 years in cooperation with China. During his recent participation in the Far East Forum, Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed that the corridor represents a strategic priority for enhancing Russian logistical capabilities.
China needs
Strongly to Russia
To work at the pole
northern; So
Moscow controls
On most aspects
Northern Sea Road
Security of international supplies
Putin pointed out that this corridor aims to ensure the flexibility and security of international supplies, and it extends from St. Petersburg and Murmansk (in the northeastern Atlantic) via the Northern Sea Route to Vladivostok (in the northeastern Pacific Ocean), and then to the countries of the Asia-Pacific region. In light of the risks threatening global navigation and trade, this corridor is designed to ensure the flexibility and security of international supplies. Indeed, the Russian President pledged to intensify cooperation with Chinese partners to develop shipping traffic using the Northern Shipping Corridor.
The Northern Shipping Corridor is the main shipping corridor in the Russian Arctic region. It extends along the northern coast of Russia across the seas of the Arctic Ocean, and the corridor shortens the distance between Europe and Asia by 40 percent, compared to traditional routes via the Suez Canal, which reduces operational costs and fuel consumption, and limits carbon emissions. Last month, the Chinese company "Seligand Shipping" launched a regular shipping line to transport containers from China to Europe via the Northern Sea Route.
It is mentioned here that the first test flight to transport containers from China to Europe, via the Northern Shipping Corridor, was tested in 2025, when a Chinese container ship arrived at the British port of Felixstowe, which paved the way for the launch of this regular navigation project. The total shipping through the Northern Sea Route in 2025 reached about 37 million tons, a slight decrease from the record recorded in 2024 by 37.9 million tons. For your information, Russian liquefied gas and oil exports constitute the largest portion of shipments so far, while the desired numbers are still far from the ambitious goals of 200 million tons by 2030.
Chinese presence
On August 15, 2025, a Chinese container ship left the east coast of China bound for the United Kingdom, taking a route never before taken by commercial ships. Sea Legend, the company that manages the route, has called it the “Ice Silk Road.”
Today, Chinese companies have more ambitious plans. At the Eastern Economic Forum in Russia, a shipping company announced its intention to transport more than one million tons of goods via the Northern Sea Route next summer. Cooperation with Russian state-owned companies in building specialized ships is also being considered, allowing the route to be used year-round.
This is extremely important for China given its heavy reliance on sea routes. About 80 percent of China's oil imports and 60 percent of its maritime trade pass through the Strait of Malacca. The Arctic Route provides an alternative route to European markets.
China desperately needs Russia to work in the Arctic; Moscow controls most aspects of the Northern Sea Route, including permit issuance, infrastructure, and icebreakers. Thus, Chinese investments help Russia expand its infrastructure in the Arctic and strengthen its position in the region.
Military dimension
It is also worth noting that the Arctic already represents an important element of Russian military capabilities. According to US intelligence estimates, about two-thirds of Russia's ability to launch naval retaliatory nuclear strikes is concentrated in that region.
Washington opposes Russian claims regarding the Northern Sea Route, but it lacks ships and infrastructure capable of operating efficiently in Arctic conditions, which prevents it from establishing a real presence in the region. This prompted Washington to activate its efforts to deploy weapons and equipment in Norway and Canada, which Moscow saw as a direct threat to its security. The recent conclusion of the “Greenland Agreement” also put Washington directly in the face of accelerating Russian-Chinese expansion.
The US Coast Guard has already signed contracts to build 11 new security ships for the Arctic. The first ship is expected to arrive in 2028, and three ships are scheduled to be deployed in Alaska. At the same time, experts point out that ships alone are not enough; There is also a need for rules and monitoring systems, as well as enhanced cooperation with allies.
On the other hand, on the sidelines of the work of the United Nations General Assembly, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio held discussions with his counterparts in the countries and territories of the Arctic, as part of an American move to strengthen security and investment cooperation in the region, on the eve of signing a security agreement regarding Greenland. According to a US statement, “Allies agreed that Arctic security requires continued investments to protect this vital region and deter strategic competitors.”
The attendees also discussed developing icebreaker capabilities and cooperation in the areas of security and investment, at a time when the importance of the region is increasing with the melting of ice and the opening of new sea routes that provide access to huge natural resources. The meeting brought together foreign ministers and representatives from Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, the Faroe Islands and Greenland.
Immediately before that, the European continent had activated its movements to confront the expansion of Russian influence in the Arctic. A meeting of European leaders in Finland, a week ago, to coordinate efforts aimed at confronting the ongoing developments in the Arctic region, carried signs of an escalating level of tensions in the region.
The meeting came days after a summit was held that brought together Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping in the Russian Far East, and focused on joint investments in the Arctic region and bilateral activity to revitalize shipping lanes.
The European meeting placed as its top priority the issue of new shipping routes that began to appear with the decline of sea ice in the Arctic, in addition to discussing untapped raw material deposits and the security threats resulting from Russian and Chinese military activities.
Greenland Agreement in Strategic Calculations
Washington has activated its movements to conduct joint military exercises in the Arctic region, and in fact, during the past two months alone, a series of exercises were conducted, which Moscow described as posing a direct threat and raising the risk of a direct confrontation. According to Vladislav Maslennikov, Director of the European Affairs Department at the Russian Foreign Ministry, any maneuvers conducted by NATO in the Arctic “increase the risk of incidents that could lead to confrontation and pose direct threats to Russia’s security.” But the most prominent development that prompted Russia to raise the level of alert in the Arctic came with the signing of a permanent “security agreement” by the United States, Denmark, and Greenland. Under the terms of the agreement, Washington has the right to deploy its forces immediately, rebuild the Narsarsuaq base, which dates back to the “Cold War” era, in the south of the island, and build a new base in Meistersvig, east of it. The Pentagon also has the right to establish aviation bases, conduct air missions, and build facilities on the territory of Greenland without compensation. The agreement remains in effect even if the island declares its complete independence from Denmark. Russian analysts point out that the new agreement is directed directly against Russia and its Chinese ally, and is not - as it appears on the face of it - only a response to President Donald Trump’s declared ambitions in Greenland. In fact, the shortest path for intercontinental missiles between the United States and Russia passes through the North Pole. The deployment of early warning radars and missile defense systems in Greenland poses a direct threat to Russia's nuclear deterrent. The depth of the water will also be disturbed; Russian Northern Fleet submarines, based on the Kola Peninsula, must secretly cross the Barents Sea and the Norwegian Sea to reach the Atlantic Ocean. With the addition of new American bases in Greenland, NATO's capabilities in the field of anti-submarine defense will be enhanced. Therefore, Russia's ambassador to Copenhagen, Vladimir Barbin, announced that the agreement between the United States, Denmark, and Greenland dedicates a path towards confrontation in the Arctic. In this context, Moscow is based on the fact that the agreement practically placed Arctic security under the supervision of NATO, instead of limiting it to the United States and Denmark. In addition to the calculations of Russia and the West regarding the competition for influence in the Arctic region, the military deployment in the region is increasingly expanding. In this context, Norway, according to Russian officials, has practically turned into “a new military base for NATO on the borders of Russia,” especially with the deployment of South Korean self-propelled guns and American “Mk 70” systems. According to military expert Alexei Anpilogov, “The main advantage of the Mk 70 system and the K9 system lies in their versatility. They can launch many types of missiles, including Tomahawk missiles. Given that each munition has a fixed range, the most important question in the current situation is to precisely determine the locations for deploying these systems. If they are deployed near Tromsø, they will be close to the Russian Northern Fleet submarine bases and the Tupolev strategic aircraft bases. Military expert Yuri Knutov believes that the growing tension on Russia's northern borders may be critical. This is because the deployment of such weapons on Western lands was previously restricted by the provisions of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, from which Washington withdrew. Thus, “it becomes clear why Washington previously abandoned the idea of deploying weapons on German soil; Norway is the perfect place for that.” It is noteworthy that maps recently published by the media showed the level of military expansion of Russia and the United States in the Arctic and its surrounding areas. According to some, Russia currently deploys 25 military bases in the Arctic, including 5 bases near the border with Norway, and 7 adjacent to Alaska, while NATO deploys 24 bases in the region, including 8 in Norway alone. Washington is preparing to develop two new bases in Greenland under the latest agreement.
A few hours after interim Venezuelan President Delcy Rodriguez signed, with US Oil Secretary Chris Wright, the agreement under which Venezuela would give up 22 percent of its oil reserves, US President Donald Trump stated from the White House that the current circumstances do not allow the promised elections to be held in Venezuela. He added that he and Rodriguez would like to conduct it “when the appropriate atmosphere exists.” Meanwhile, criticism of this agreement, the largest in the world, was continuing, including among the Venezuelan opposition, which had previously cheered the US military intervention that ousted Nicolas Maduro, and whose ranks began to show cracks after Washington insisted on marginalizing it and opening channels of dialogue with the regime.
President Donald Trump's statements came after revealing some details of the agreement, which indicated that Washington's control over a fifth of Venezuela's oil reserves for a period of 100 years will be through its contribution to a private Venezuelan company owned by a friend of Trump, the millionaire Alejandro Betancur. By the way, the latter is being prosecuted in both Switzerland and Spain on charges of money laundering.
On the other hand, Venezuelan opposition circles expressed their fears that this agreement would constitute an incentive to keep the interim government in power, postpone the democratic transition process, or even ignore it completely.
Venezuela is not ready for elections
Trump said in his statements on the subject: “I do not think that Venezuela is ready for elections... It is a new government that we saved from the previous regime and with whom we now have good relations, and President Delcy Rodriguez is doing an excellent job and is respected by everyone, and this is what we want.”
The American President also refrained from specifying a date for holding the promised elections, or the conditions that should be in place for holding them, saying only that they “may happen soon.” Thus, this confirms the declared position of the Trump administration since the lightning military operation that ended with the arrest of former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his taking to the United States to stand trial on drug trafficking charges.
The position of Washington, which practically exercises guardianship over Venezuela, is based on a “road map” of three stages: rebuilding the oil sector, which constitutes the main engine of the Venezuelan economy, “achieving stability” (according to Washington), and then transferring power to a new government “through free elections.”
In this direction, those responsible for the Venezuelan file in Washington stress that the goal is not to hold elections for the sake of holding them, but rather to lead to the establishment of a “firm and stable political system,” through a frank and serious dialogue between the interim government and representatives of the opposition, which is supposed to begin in the middle of this month. For your information, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently responded to a press inquiry about the elections that Washington promised to hold in Venezuela by saying: “Elections alone cannot solve all problems. It is a condition for the establishment of a democratic system that is not limited only to its implementation. Stability is what allows this system to be consolidated economically and legally, for there to be a free press and political parties that have sufficient conditions and time to organize their ranks, and for elections to be held on the basis of a legal system that inspires confidence and does not exclude anyone.
Recognition from the opposition... and wholesale criticism
On the other hand, the Venezuelan opposition itself admits that the Venezuelan institutions guaranteeing the democratic system “were broken down and emptied of their powers” during the previous era. Accordingly, it must be rebuilt before moving to holding free and fair elections. However, most of the leaders of this opposition began to have doubts about Washington's true intentions after they saw the extent of harmony and closeness between the Trump administration and the interim president, who for many years was one of the main pillars of the Maduro regime, and before that in the regime of Hugo Chavez.
President Trump described the agreement as “historic.” He said it was “a gift from the Venezuelan people to the United States.” He added that it would not cost his country a single penny, but rather would help replenish the US strategic oil reserve, which has currently reached its lowest levels in four decades.
But, since I started running Maalo
