Today (Tuesday), when casting his vote in the legislative elections in Jerusalem, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called on Israelis to vote “correctly,” in light of the intense competition.
“This is a very poignant and fateful moment,” Netanyahu said. My wife and I are really touched. We realize the scale of the stakes, and because I cannot state matters directly, I will only say: Vote correctly,” according to what the Associated Press reported.
After casting his vote, Netanyahu attacked the Arab parties in Israel, warning that they were “trying to steal the elections.” Netanyahu said that three prominent officials in an Israeli Arab party were arrested in the south of the country, and they were in possession of envelopes full of money, according to what Agence France-Presse reported.
But electoral authorities explained that these people “had not yet arrived at the polling stations,” that they were arrested near their homes, and that the case is still under investigation. As for the Central Elections Commission, it confirmed that “this is a case limited to a specific area.”
Israelis are flocking in large numbers to polling stations in the legislative elections, which are witnessing a close match according to opinion polls, amid divisions over the fate of Netanyahu's political life and the rise of Israel's right-wing orientation.
Israelis have begun voting in parliamentary elections, which could mark a turning point for the deeply divided and internationally isolated country.
About 7.3 million people are entitled to vote to elect the 120 members of the Twenty-Sixth Knesset, at a time when the political future of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears to be at stake. These elections are the first since the attack of October 7, 2023, and the Gaza war that followed it.
The Central Elections Commission reported today (Tuesday) that the initial turnout in the Israeli elections is the highest since 1981.
With neither political camp likely to obtain a majority, Israel may face an opposition-led government, a new coalition headed by Netanyahu, a minority government, an agreement to form a unity government, or new elections, while coalition negotiations may continue for weeks.
The change of just one or two seats in Parliament may determine whether Benjamin Netanyahu will remain Prime Minister of Israel, or will be replaced by opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot, or will the country find itself heading to new elections, according to a report by the Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper.
As Israelis head to the polls today, the outcome is still highly uncertain, given the multiple possible paths to forming a government, and the lack of guarantees that either political camp will obtain a majority.
Most opinion polls indicate that Netanyahu's allies on the right and religious parties, as well as the parties seeking to replace him, will not be able to win the 61 seats needed to achieve a majority in the 120-member Israeli Knesset.
But even in the absence of a clear winner, negotiations may result in the formation of a new government, a fragile minority government, or an unexpected agreement between political rivals. Below are the five main scenarios and a timeline of what will happen after the votes are counted.
The first scenario: an opposition government led by Eisenkot
Most opinion polls indicate that neither political camp will win 61 seats, but if the parties seeking to replace Netanyahu are able to gain a majority, they may form a coalition that includes the centrist Yashar Party led by Gadi Eisenkot, the Together Party led by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, the Yisrael Beytenu party led by Avigdor Lieberman, and the left-wing Democrats led by Yair Golan.
Despite the differences within the opposition, especially the reluctance of Bennett and Lieberman to accept Eisenkot as prime minister, he would be the most likely candidate to lead such a government if his party became the largest within the camp. The challenge will then be to transform the electoral majority into a coalition capable of working, despite the political and ideological differences between the parties.
Second scenario: Netanyahu wins a new term
The alternative is for the right-wing and religious camp to win, led by Netanyahu, who would have to obtain at least 61 seats, although opinion polls indicate that this possibility is even less likely than the opposition obtaining an outright majority.
This result would allow Netanyahu to reconstitute his current coalition, which brings together the Likud Party, the religiously extremist “Shas” and “United Torah Judaism” parties, the far-right “Otzma Yehudit” party led by Itamar Ben Gvir, and the “Religious Zionism” party led by Bezalel Smotrich.
Third scenario: A minority government that relies on Arab parties
If Jewish-led opposition parties win more seats than Netanyahu's camp, but fail to achieve an outright majority, Eisenkot may try to form a minority government.
Under Israel's parliamentary system, a new government does not necessarily need the support of 61 MPs to assume power; Rather, it must win a vote of confidence in Parliament, and it can be approved by a simple majority of those participating in the vote, even if the difference is one vote.
Eisenkot said that he would not negotiate with the Arab or Haredi parties, make political concessions to them, or conclude agreements with them. He bases his calculations on the fact that the Arab representatives will abstain from the vote of confidence instead of helping Netanyahu remain in office. But even if such a government is formed, its survival may depend on parliamentary support from outside it, provided by Arab parties or Haredi Ashkenazi factions willing to negotiate government funding and military recruitment.
Without this support, the government may quickly collapse. However, the biggest obstacle is Lieberman, who has ruled out supporting a minority government. He believes that such an arrangement will not last long, and may ultimately strengthen Netanyahu's position in new elections.
Fourth scenario: A unity government between Netanyahu and Eisenkot
Another possibility is the formation of a broad coalition bringing together Netanyahu and Eisenkot, especially if the Arab parties achieve strong results that prevent either of the two competing camps from obtaining a majority.
Such an agreement might include a power-sharing formula, under which the two leaders would alternate the position of prime minister during the government's term. Both Netanyahu and Eisenkot have publicly refused to enter into such a partnership, making it politically difficult. However, President Isaac Herzog may try to encourage a settlement if the elections result in a prolonged political stalemate, and neither party is unable to form a viable coalition.
Fifth scenario: New elections with Netanyahu remaining in office
If Netanyahu's camp wins more seats than the opposition among the parties, but fails to reach 61 seats, and neither party is willing to cooperate with parties outside its camp, Israel may face new elections.
In such circumstances, Netanyahu will remain in his position as caretaker prime minister until a new government is formed, which may extend his stay in power for several months without obtaining a new parliamentary majority.
This result would prolong the state of political uncertainty, according to the newspaper, and may return Israelis to the ballot boxes without any guarantee that the new elections will lead to a different result.
