Israel elections.. Netanyahu and his opponents between the seat map and the calculations for forming the government

Polling stations opened on Tuesday morning in Israel, in one of the most important elections in its history. Voters now face a familiar question: Should Benjamin Netanyahu, the longest-serving prime minister, remain in power?

Israelis vote for party lists, not for individual candidates. In a society divided along national, religious, ethnic, and ideological lines, this leads to a wide and complex spectrum of choices.

Dozens of lists are registered each election cycle, but only lists that exceed the threshold of 3.25% of the vote win seats in the Knesset, Israel's 120-seat parliament. On Monday, the number of parties participating in the race reached 36.

Opinion polls indicate that between 11 and 13 parties will cross the electoral threshold, while seats are distributed according to the proportional representation system.

As for the two largest parties, they are the right-wing Likud Party led by Netanyahu, and the Yashar Party, a new centrist party led by Gadi Eisenkot, the former chief of staff who has emerged as Netanyahu's main competitor.

The latest opinion poll, conducted by the Israeli Channel 12, puts Eisenkot in the lead, with his party expected to obtain 23 seats, ahead of the Likud Party, which is expected to obtain 21 seats, although other polls provide different results. In a poll conducted by Channel 14, which is known for its support of Netanyahu, it is expected that Likud will obtain 30 seats, compared to about 20 seats for Eisenkot’s party. In direct comparison polls regarding the most suitable person to assume the position of prime minister, Eisenkot outperforms Netanyahu by a consistent margin.

However, any party obtaining the largest number of seats is not enough to win the formation of the government; The Prime Minister needs the support of 61 members of the Knesset to form a majority government, and no party has ever achieved this majority on its own. So, election night often doesn't decide much; The real battle lies in the calculations of forming the coalitions that will follow, a process that may take days, weeks, or even months.

Most opinion polls indicate that Netanyahu's bloc, which includes the Likud Party, two far-right parties led by Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir, and two parties representing ultra-Orthodox Jews, will obtain between 49 and 55 seats, which is less than the required majority of 61 seats.

The opposition appears strong on paper, but in reality it suffers from deep divisions. To Eisenkot's right, there are parties led by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and former Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman, while to his left is the "Democrats" party led by Yair Golan. Bennett and Lieberman did not announce their support for Eisenkot, and both of them aspire to assume the position of prime minister.

According to opinion polls, any alternative government will likely need Arab parties to support or abstain from voting, while a number of opposition leaders have ruled out any cooperation with them.

In the absence of a clear majority for any party, several scenarios remain possible, including reaching a deadlock, forming a minority government, a national unity government, or even holding new elections.