Iraqis celebrated the departure of US forces on Wednesday, after more than two decades of war, but many fear that any security vacuum will increase the influence of Iranian-backed armed factions or provide an opportunity for the return of ISIS.
With the withdrawal of the last forces - which will be mainly from an air base in Erbil in the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region - the largest war fought by the United States this century will end, which caused widespread destruction and chaos from which Iraq has not yet fully recovered.
Iran, which has consolidated its influence in Iraq through armed groups allied with it and is determined to expel all American forces from the Middle East, sees the American withdrawal as a victory for what it calls the “axis of resistance” of allied armed groups throughout the region.
Iraqi forces set off in a convoy of cars through the streets of Baghdad and the city of Najaf, which has a religious status among Shiites, to celebrate the withdrawal.
Ahmed Salah, a Baghdad resident, said that the withdrawal “fills our hearts with joy.” He added that he feels as if he was born again at the age of seventy. But he also indicated that the time has now come for the powerful armed factions to hand over their weapons, saying: “Let the government be the party responsible for protecting both of us, you and me, on land, in the air and in the water.”
The withdrawal was approved in 2024 during the era of former US President Joe Biden and is being implemented by the administration of President Donald Trump even as it wages war on neighboring Iran.
US-led forces invaded Iraq in 2003 to overthrow Saddam Hussein, which at the time sparked unrest and chaos. American forces initially left at the end of 2011, but returned less than three years later to assist Iraqi forces after ISIS fighters seized a third of Iraq's territory and imposed a rule based on violence.
More than 4,500 American soldiers died in Iraq, which is twice the number killed in a simultaneous war in Afghanistan. The “Iraq War Victims” project indicates that more than 200,000 Iraqi civilians were killed.
The Pentagon said that the United States and its coalition partners have officially concluded Operation Inherent Resolve, adding that Washington will continue to provide targeted training and intelligence support to Iraqi partners.
The Iraqis are expected to lead efforts to secure their country, an ally of both Washington and Tehran, and keep the remnants of ISIS under control.
The Iraqi Prime Minister, Ali Faleh al-Zaidi, said in a statement: “The end of the international coalition’s mission does not mean the end of our battle with terrorism, but rather it is the transition of Iraq to a stage in which it assumes full responsibility for its security and stability.”
“The security vacuum can be extremely dangerous.”
Although the withdrawal enjoys broad support among Iraqis, some worry that security forces trained and funded by the United States are still unable to protect the country.
“The lesson of the past two decades is that security vacuums can be extremely dangerous,” said Jassim Al-Bahadli, an Iraqi analyst who advises security forces.
Adel Salman (45 years old), a high school English teacher, said that Iraqis should not rush to celebrate the withdrawal.
He added: “The militias are still operating outside the control of the state, and ISIS has not disappeared yet... I am concerned that the American withdrawal will lead to a new period of instability. Ultimately, people will judge this decision by one thing only: whether security will remain stable during the coming years.
Hundreds of supporters of Iraqi armed factions loyal to Iran gathered in Baghdad to celebrate the withdrawal, chanting “Death to America.”
Celebrants carried pictures of the late Iranian leader Ali Khamenei, his son Mojtaba, who succeeded him, and prominent Iranian general Qassem Soleimani, who was killed in an American air strike that targeted his convoy in Baghdad in 2020.
With US forces side by side with armed factions allied with Tehran, Iraq became involved in the Iran War this year.
In this year's war against Iran, seven of the 18 American soldiers declared dead were killed in Iraq since Trump launched Operation "Epic of Rage" alongside Israel in February. The last of them was a sergeant who was killed during a controlled drone explosion at a base near Erbil in July.
Political analyst Ahmed Younis, based in Baghdad, said that the withdrawal raises “the possibility that groups operating on behalf of Iran will feel more powerful in the absence of the Western military presence.” These groups may attempt to expand their role in shaping state policies and consolidate their presence within key institutions.”
Some Iraqi security officials say that the American withdrawal also entails the risk of giving ISIS fighters a new opportunity for activity, as they still maintain a network of sleeper cells despite the defeat of the caliphate that the organization declared about 10 years ago.
The last time the American forces withdrew, the Iraqi army showed that it was unable to confront ISIS, as the soldiers took off their military uniforms and fled when the organization seized Mosul, the second largest city in Iraq, in 2014.
Retired Iraqi Army General Muhammad al-Jubouri, who led a brigade in the war against the organization, said: “The most important question now is whether the Iraqi security institutions have prepared an implementable alternative plan for the post-coalition phase.”
