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Back德语媒体:中期选举给中美关系带来考验
德语媒体:中期选举给中美关系带来考验
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德国之声2 hours agoWorld5 min readChinaView translation

德语媒体:中期选举给中美关系带来考验

分析指出民主党若掌控国会可能制约特朗普对华让步,同时中国网络舆论对跨国婚恋女性出现排外情绪

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分析指出,若民主党在中期选举中获胜,将利用国会多数地位监督特朗普的对华政策,包括芯片出口与对台军售。此外,文章还探讨了中国网络舆论对跨国婚恋女性的排外现象及相关社会背景。

AI-generated summary

Why It Matters

美国中期选举临近,民主党对特朗普政府的对华贸易及外交政策持批评态度。同时,中国国内针对跨国婚恋的社会舆论引发了关于性别规范与民族主义的讨论。

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(德国之声中文网)特朗普总统放宽芯片对华出口限制,以及搁置对台军售案的做法,一直以来都是国会的争议话题。网络新闻平台China Table在中期选举前发表的一份分析指出,一旦民主党重新赢得国会多数,特朗普对北京做出的种种妥协,就将面临严峻考验。这篇题为《美国中期选举:特朗普的对华交易面临严峻考验》的分析文章写道:

“早在中期选举之前,美国民主党人就对特朗普的对华路线提出了质疑。9月,习近平结束访美行程后,就有民主党籍参议员指责特朗普,为了眼前的商业利益,而牺牲了美国的技术霸主地位。白宫批准向中国出售高端芯片和芯片制造设备的决定,尤其引起民主党政治家们的强烈批评。与此同时,民主党人还要求放行一宗对台军售案,这笔价值140亿美元的对台军售案此前本已获得国会的批准,但却一直被白宫搁置一边。民主党人发出的信号很明确: 特朗普不能为了讨好习近平,就把美国的长期利益当作儿戏。

明年1月开始,民主党将可以利用在众议院的多数地位对特朗普的对华政策进行监督。届时,他们将有权让政府官员前来听证,并就总统豁免关税的依据等事项展开调查。美国战略与国际关系中心的莱恩什(William Alan Reinsch)在中期选举前撰写的一篇分析文章就指出,民主党的这类提案会令政府陷入被动。

而一旦民主党也赢得了参议院的多数地位,他们还可以通过制定新法律来制约特朗普的对华政策。不过,特朗普总统也同样可以行使否决权来阻止这样的法律。不过,无论如何,国会的各类调查都有可能会让政府疲于应对,以至于政府出台新举措的空间大大缩小。

国会同白宫的相互掣肘在台湾问题上表现得尤为明显。芝加哥全球事务学会的赫尔(Paul Heer)表示,国会内已经形成了一种‘松散的跨党派共识,认为特朗普对习近平做出了过多的让步。不过,赫尔同时也表示,特朗普是否会在意国会压力,则另当别论。今后,特朗普仍完全有可能会不顾一切地向习近平靠拢。”

China Table分析文章援引复旦大学政治学者吴心伯的话写道,中期选举的失利,或许也会激励特朗普总统在中美关系等外交领域拿出政绩的决心。

“特朗普一旦面临民主党掌控的国会调查,就有可能会采取主动出击的策略。例如,他有可能会挑起一场新的关税战。布鲁金斯协会的哈斯(Ryan Hass)认为,在贸易政策领域,特朗普很有可能会采取‘不断出击’的策略。他会将自己的总统权限发挥到极致,以挑起争端的形式来回避国会对他本人及政府的调查。新的关税可能会矛头直指北京,从而使刚刚趋于稳定的中美关系再出变数。”

“爱上外国人,就是女叛徒?”

一位美国网红对数名中国女性疑似实施性剥削的消息曝光之后,中国网上舆论的怒火,却逐渐转向了那些拥有外籍伴侣的中国女性,并将这类女性称为“民族败类”。 《南德意志报》写道:

“格罗宁根大学传媒学者Qian Huang认为,这种舆论攻势的背后,就是要为女性制定明确的行为规范:一名‘好的中国女性’既不应当对外国男性产生性冲动,更不应同他们建立婚恋关系。Qian Huang在2003年的一份论文中写道:违背这些期待的女性,就会在网上被贴上“不爱国”的标签,并遭到排斥。

尽管女性在中国的许多领域都享有平等权利,但父权思想仍相当顽固。党的最高领导层一律由男性组成。而女权运动现在也成了中国的政治敏感话题,一些女权活动人士甚至会遭到打压。其幕后原因之一,是政府担心,愈来愈独立的女性,将会进一步拉低中国的结婚率和出生率。

围绕美国留学生网红及其对待中国女性的方式的讨论,还有另外一个原因让中国领导层感到尴尬。就在今年五月,国家媒体还曾将这位美国学生誉为‘新一代外国网红’的代表。他所制作的视频中,将自己塑造成‘亲华人士’,并刻意同那些据说一位抹黑中国的网红和媒体保持距离。这种表态一时让他在中国畅通无阻,不过,现如今,他的账户已经转为私密状态。

What to Watch

AI outlook — possibilities, not facts

  • 民主党若赢得众议院多数,将启动对特朗普对华政策的听证调查。

    Likely · Within months

Open Questions

  • 民主党若胜选,将采取何种具体立法手段?
  • 特朗普是否会通过关税战转移国内政治压力?

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This article was originally published by 德国之声.

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