Deutsche Welle: China reacted cautiously to the results of the US midterm elections. When asked about his views on the U.S. mid-term elections at a regular press conference, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said that the mid-term elections are the internal affairs of the United States. China is willing to continue to work with the United States to safeguard and implement the important consensus reached by the two heads of state. What do you think of this statement?
Professor Fedori: First of all, it is very typical for China to be cautious in evaluating the results of the US election. Rather than express their preference clearly, they often respond with "this is an internal matter." However, the wording "China is willing to continue to work with the United States to safeguard and implement the important consensus reached by the two heads of state" shows that China expects that the outside world may think that China will be less satisfied with the election results because they have just reached an arrangement with Trump. In other words, they think Democrats, or many think Democrats, will now take further action. Therefore, China emphasized that “we are still willing to cooperate.”
Deutsche Welle: China seems to be worried that the results of the mid-term elections may have some impact on Sino-US relations. So how big do you think the impact will be?
Professor Fedori: Based on experience in recent years, the Chinese government is worried that Democrats will be more critical of China than Trump. Trump is accused of being impressed by Xi Jinping's leadership and has established a different relationship at this level, thus becoming less confrontational in handling relations with China. However, it must be pointed out that the United States also imposed sanctions on China during the Trump administration. Although they have not delivered weapons to Taiwan this year, they have not truly adopted a friendly or conciliatory attitude towards China. The situation is very complex. It can be said that no matter who has occupied the White House in the past few years, they have been relatively consistent on the issue of China. Biden has not completely overturned Trump's first-term China policy, and Trump has not overturned Biden's approach. Of course, they have different priorities and approach them very differently. But fundamentally, both Republicans and Democrats see China as a major challenge that requires a strategic response.
Deutsche Welle: Specifically, after the midterm elections, may the United States have a different approach to foreign, trade and tariff policies?
Professor Fedori: In terms of foreign policy, including trade policy and tariff policy, it is obvious that the current president does not follow the advice of Congress very much. Therefore, we do not know whether the Democrats, after taking control of Congress, are really capable of preventing Trump from taking independent actions in these areas through the normal, legal, and established procedures of Congress. It might be possible to file a lawsuit, but it would take time. So, the situation is very complicated at the moment. This is not only related to China policy.
Observers believe Democrats may try to put more pressure on the White House. But in fact - as some say - Trump, the so-called "lame duck" now, may also become an angry duck in the next two years, trying to force something forward. So we really have no idea what will happen next. We can see what happens at the APEC summit at the end of the month. I believe that the meeting between Xi Jinping and Trump will still be held as planned. Perhaps we can get a glimpse of where things are going. I don’t think we’ll see big changes immediately, and there won’t be big changes in U.S. policy toward China in the short term.
Deutsche Welle: You just mentioned Taiwan. Will there be any changes in US policy in this regard?
Professor Fedori: I am not an expert on Taiwan, but if I understand correctly, during the Trump administration, weapons shipments to Taiwan that were originally planned for this year have been suspended. In theory, one could imagine Democrats pushing harder for delivery of the weapons. But hard work is hard work, whether it can ultimately lead to this is another matter entirely.
Deutsche Welle: Can you briefly summarize the changes in the status and balance of power between China and the United States during the two years since Trump took office?
Professor Fedori: China has indeed been hit by the Trump administration’s sanctions, but I think the most critical thing at the moment is that other parts of the world, especially countries in the Global South, believe that the Trump administration’s policies in various fields are difficult to predict, and it is difficult to know what the Trump administration will do next. What it wants, and how reliable its claims are. This includes the trade war, but also extends to the Iran war and similar issues. This hierarchical and unpredictable nature of the Trump administration has led to a general increase in China’s image and power. But at the same time, there is another trend. In Europe, we are also feeling the fear of China that is spreading in the United States. This fear is spreading across Europe.
However, if we ignore these factors for the moment and focus only on the behavior of Trump and his administration in international politics, then China has undoubtedly benefited from it and its position in the world seems to have been strengthened.
As for Trump's economic policies toward China, China's current leadership can take credit for itself and say that we responded to Trump correctly, that we stood up to him and showed strength, and it has proven to be effective, and because of this, Trump has relatively let us off the hook now. Some people analyze it from a psychological level and believe that Trump really likes strong men, so he appreciates China to some extent. However, when it comes to actual trade conflicts, security conflicts, information and disinformation issues, etc., China does not completely have the upper hand. Everyone is groping, trying to find a way to resolve these conflicts.
In addition, China's economy is currently facing many problems, including some demand-side problems. Recent weakness in the stock market has also been interpreted as a lack of confidence in the capabilities of artificial intelligence. The Chinese economy seems to be in a slump right now, but we are now seeing this in the United States as well. However, these issues are not mainly determined by the bilateral relations between China and the United States. The difficulties China currently faces are not issues such as the export market, but are closely related to China's economic policies, policy implementation methods, and priority setting.
Deutsche Welle: The United States has many restrictions on the import of Chinese goods, such as electric vehicles. Will this trend continue?
Professor Fedori: I don’t think Congress will pressure the White House to impose more trade restrictions on China, at least not on the grounds that too many goods are flowing from China into the United States. If there is any movement, it will only be for safety reasons. But I don’t think they’re going to make that a priority. The Democratic Party first needs to straighten out its internal affairs and figure out how to deal with this new situation and how to stabilize the current wave so that it can win the presidential election again in two years. And whether Congress now actually has the leverage to bring about big changes, like in tariff policy, I doubt that. If the main purpose is to curb inflation, they might say, maybe we should lower tariffs. But inflation is of course also heavily influenced by energy prices, which tariffs have no impact on. So the situation is complicated. I expect it will take some time for Democrats to find their feet and adjust to their new role.
