A Chinese think tank suggested in a new analysis that Beijing should learn from a new Pentagon plan to assess future war needs, but also warned that possible conflicts of interest and other flaws in U.S. defense reviews must be avoided.
Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post reported on the 18th that Project Meridian, launched at the end of last month, aims to identify future battlefield needs and prioritize investment, focusing on areas such as artificial intelligence (AI), autonomous systems, directed energy, robotics and biotechnology.
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The Blue Army Open-Source Intelligence Research Institute, a Beijing-based think tank, suggested in an analysis released on the 16th that China should draw lessons from the plan’s assessment of different military fields, collaboration between military and civilian analysts, and its emphasis on integrating technological development with operational needs.
The report pointed out that the plan, led by Pentagon Chief of Science and Technology Emil Michael and the non-profit research organization Miter Corporation, reflects Washington’s efforts to adapt to the rapid pace of commercial technology development and solve the long-term challenge of coordinating military needs, research funding and procurement.
The report pointed out that the main advantages of the program are its cross-domain analyst team, a 120-day rapid evaluation cycle, and its focus on areas such as space and cyber warfare outside of the traditional military field.
The report analyzed: "This initiative has established a modern evaluation chain of 'demand-oriented demand, technology screening, gap identification, and system adoption', which effectively fits the current trend of commercial technology-driven military innovation."
The author suggests that China should adopt a comprehensive approach when evaluating defense technologies, going beyond isolated assessments of single weapon systems or services. They also urged China to identify gaps in joint operations, including weaknesses in data sharing, communication links, system compatibility and logistical support.
The report calls for a dual-track assessment mechanism that combines ongoing monitoring of global technological developments with deadline-based reviews of specific capability gaps. Such reviews should bring together the military, research institutions, defense contractors, universities, and private technology companies to improve the quality and speed of decision-making.
Another priority, the think tank said, is establishing a clear path from technology assessment to actual deployment. The report states that each recommendation should clearly identify the operational need it addresses, existing capability gaps, technology maturity, the organization responsible for execution, as well as test conditions and funding requirements.
The report said: "[China] should establish a complete closed loop of 'assessment, project establishment, prototype development, testing, force verification, large-scale deployment, review and optimization', and fully incorporate adjustments to operational disciplines, organization, talent, training and support systems into the process of converting technology into combat effectiveness."
However, the report also pointed out that the Pentagon's review of including business leaders who already have defense contracts increases the risk of conflicts of interest; in addition, the 120-day timetable for completing the report will limit its effectiveness.
Project Meridian is co-chaired by SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, defense technology company Anduril Industries co-founder Palmer Luckey, and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.
The report states: "Rapid assessment cannot replace detailed systems engineering analysis, cost assessment, adversarial verification and full life cycle risk assessment." China must try to establish which technologies can be easily converted into actual combat capabilities, and any Chinese research of the same nature should be independently reviewed. Disclosure of conflicts of interest should also be mandatory, and companies should not evaluate their own products or influence purchasing decisions.
The report concluded: "China should selectively adopt the strengths of Project Meridian while addressing its shortcomings such as insufficient verification, excessive scope, and conflicts of interest... to establish a defense technology assessment system that is driven by clearly defined needs, supported by strong evidence, subject to independent evaluation, linked to a complete execution process, and equipped with effective risk controls."
