International leisure tourism in the Kingdom is expected to grow by 93 percent between 2025 and 2030, exceeding expected growth rates in the Middle East and at the global level, according to a new report issued by Tourism Economics entitled: “The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: A Rising Global Tourism Power,” which was presented today during the activities of the World Travel Market - Spotlight Riyadh.
In his speech during the opening day, Dave Goodger, Managing Director of Europe, the Middle East and Africa at Tourism Economics, revealed that international leisure tourism in the Kingdom, measured by the number of tourist nights spent by visitors, is expected to grow by more than three times the global rate of 30 percent over the next five years, surpassing the Middle East region, which recorded a growth rate of 64 percent.
This forecast is based on a period of significant tourism expansion. Between 2019 and 2025, international travel to Saudi Arabia achieved a remarkable growth of 67 percent, compared to 20 percent in the Middle East and 5 percent globally, as the Kingdom contributed about three-quarters of the growth of international travel in the region during that period, and Riyadh also increased its share in the global international travel market.
Dave Goodger explained: “The Kingdom has quickly emerged as one of the most dynamic tourism economies in the world, contributing about 15 percent of global travel growth since 2019, and accounting for three-quarters of tourism growth in the Middle East.” He continued: “With the number of international visitors approaching half of the total nights they spend in the Kingdom, this matter is no longer just a regional story, but rather has become a strong export-based tourism engine, supported by sustainable investment, development of tourist destinations, and a clear ambition for the Kingdom to become a leading global tourism force.”
Tourism Economics' analysis also shows that China's share of international tourist spending in the leisure tourism sector has increased from 9 percent in 2019 to 28 percent in 2025, and is expected to reach 31 percent by the end of the decade.
This potential to attract higher-spending international tourists is reinforced by research conducted by Dragon Trail International, the official research partner of the World Travel Market - Spotlight Riyadh 2026. As part of its partnership with the exhibition, Dragon Trail issued a special report entitled: “Chinese Tourism to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: Special Report 2026,” which combines consumer and tourism sector research to study the development of Chinese tourism to the Kingdom and determine the market segments and travel patterns that are offered. Strongest growth potential.
A study it conducted also showed that Saudi Arabia is indeed among the most prominent tourist destinations in the Middle East and North Africa region promoted by Chinese travel agents. More than half of the travel agents surveyed (52 percent) are currently promoting the Kingdom, while 32 percent of them consider it among the tourist destinations with the greatest future potential to attract Chinese tourism.
The luxury tourism sector represents a very promising opportunity, as 42 percent of Chinese travel agents surveyed indicated that high-net-worth travelers seeking luxury are the segment most likely to recover and grow in the MENA region.
The experiences these travelers are looking for are also consistent with the diversity of the growing tourism potential in the Kingdom.
According to a survey of Chinese travel agents, 54 percent of them indicated that nature and scenery are particularly attractive to their customers, followed by adventure and outdoor activities at 45 percent, museums and cultural attractions at 41 percent, interacting with locals at 41 percent, and luxury resorts at 37 percent.
The long-term opportunity is also evident in the hospitality sector in Saudi Arabia, where STR, a global specialist in hospitality data and standards, presented exclusive research and forecasts to the World Travel Market - Spotlight Riyadh, highlighting the strong hotel demand and performance expectations across the Kingdom.
STR also expects revenues from available rooms in Riyadh to grow by 18.6 percent in 2027, as increasing demand from companies and consultancies is expected to exceed new hotel supply. Revenues from available rooms are expected to continue to grow over the next four years as the capital expands into the business and entertainment sectors in line with “Vision 2030.”
In Jeddah, strong local and international demand, as a popular summer tourist destination and a major Hajj and Umrah corridor, supported performance during the first half of 2026. However, rapid growth in hotel supply remains an important factor, with more than 2,300 new rooms expected to open in 2027, and both Riyadh and Jeddah are also expected to benefit from increased demand for MICE tourism next year.
For her part, Danielle Curtis, Regional Director of the RX Portfolio in the United Arab Emirates, said: “The visions presented during the World Travel Market - Spotlight Riyadh show that the transformation witnessed by the tourism sector in the Kingdom is increasingly translating into tangible economic and commercial opportunities. The Kingdom has already achieved remarkable growth in the number of visitors, while the next stage is to build on this momentum by attracting high-value demand and ensuring that its benefits extend to include various components.” Tourism system.
It is worth noting that registration is now open for visitors to attend the “World Travel Market - Spotlight Riyadh” exhibition, where the most prominent travel professionals have been invited to reserve their place in the inaugural session of the event and communicate directly with one of the fastest growing tourism markets in the world.
Fitch Ratings Agency maintained Tunisia's long-term sovereign rating at "B-" with a "stable" outlook, noting that the Tunisian economy enjoys relative diversity and strength in indicators of per capita output and human development, in addition to an educated workforce and stability in the external situation despite shocks, in exchange for high government debt, fiscal deficit, and large financing needs.
Fitch said that the rating also reflects the fragility of public finances to external shocks, especially fluctuations in commodity prices, as a result of the high cost of support, as well as the limited financing options available to the government.
The agency expects the Tunisian current account deficit to expand to 3.9 percent of GDP in 2026, compared to lower levels in the previous period, as a result of rising energy prices and the resulting increase in the trade balance deficit.
This comes despite the improvement in olive oil export revenues, which rose 44 percent on an annual basis during the first half of 2026, in addition to the continued strong performance of the services sector.
Fitch expects the current account deficit to decline to less than 2.5 percent of output during 2027 and 2028, assuming a decline in global oil prices. However, it warned that the Tunisian current account would remain highly sensitive to any prolonged rise in oil prices.
The agency believes that the decline in government external debt maturities, in conjunction with continued financing flows from bilateral and multilateral partners, will lead to a decline in net external financing flows to about 1.4 percent of output in 2026, compared to a record level of 3.6 percent in 2024.
These flows are expected to stabilize at about 1 percent of output during 2027 and 2028.
Fitch indicated that Tunisia has fully repaid the only outstanding euro bond worth 700 million euros, which matured in July 2026, supported by loans provided by the Central Bank.
She added that the government's restoration of a greater than expected ability to borrow from commercial markets, which the agency expects to begin again in 2026, could contribute to significantly reducing net external financing flows.
Fitch expects international reserves to decline to the equivalent of 3.3 months of current external payments during 2026, as a result of the widening of the current account deficit.
However, it expects that the reduction in the deficit starting in 2027 will allow reserves to gradually rise to the equivalent of 3.7 months of external payments in 2028, compared to an average of 4.1 months for countries classified at the “B” level.
In contrast, foreign direct investment flows to Tunisia rose to about 2 percent of output in 2025, driven by investments in renewable energy projects and industrial activities, and these flows demonstrated the ability to withstand political and external shocks.
Fitch expects the fiscal deficit to widen to 6.4 percent of output in 2026, compared to an average of 3.3 percent for countries rated at “B” level.
The agency attributed this mainly to the high cost of fuel subsidies, which it expects to increase by about 0.8 percentage points of output during the year.
Fitch does not expect to implement fundamental financial reforms in the near term, as it believes that the government has ended efforts to reduce current spending, especially the wage bill.
Although the deficit is expected to gradually decline until 2028, it will remain highly affected by oil prices. According to the agency's estimates, the 2028 deficit will be about 1.4 percentage points higher than its current expectations if the oil price remains at $87 per barrel until that year.
The agency expects Tunisian government debt to rise slightly to 85 percent of GDP in 2026, and to remain close to this level until 2028, which is clearly higher than the average of 55 percent for countries classified as “B.”
She pointed out that about 40 percent of the total debt is denominated in foreign currencies, which makes public finances more vulnerable to the risks of exchange rate fluctuations.
Although fiscal financing needs are expected to decline, they will remain high, as Fitch estimates financing needs, excluding short-term debt refinancing, at about 13.5 percent of output in 2028, compared to an average of 8.9 percent for B-rated countries.
The agency pointed out that the Central Bank of Tunisia provided the government with interest-free loans worth 7 billion Tunisian dinars in both 2024 and 2025, while the 2026 budget includes a planned loan worth 11 billion dinars, equivalent to 6.1 percent of the expected output.
Fitch believes that the central bank’s financing of the government is likely to stop in 2027, in the absence of large external entitlements, which, according to its estimates, will lead to an increase in net domestic borrowing from 1.7 percent of output in 2026 to 6.5 percent in 2027, which may impose major pressures on the local financial sector.
Fitch indicated that the effective real exchange rate of the Tunisian dinar rose by 24 percent between 2019 and 2025, according to International Monetary Fund data, as a result of the stability of the nominal exchange rate against major currencies and the rise in domestic inflation compared to trading partners.
In an attempt to reduce demand for foreign currencies and preserve reserves, in May 2026 the central bank took measures restricting access to financing for non-essential imports.
The agency estimates that a decline in external financing needs during 2027 and 2028, in conjunction with containing inflation, will reduce the risks of a sharp and unregulated decline in the value of the dinar, but it expects continued pressure on the currency.
On the other hand, Fitch believes that inflationary pressures will remain relatively limited, with a large part of the impact of rising global oil prices being absorbed by supporting fuel prices, in addition to the contribution of favorable climate conditions during the spring growing season in reducing the risks of rising food prices in the short term.
The agency expects average inflation to rise to 5.7 percent during 2026, before declining to about 5 percent until 2028, compared to an average of 8.3 percent during the period 2022-2024.
At the same time, Fitch expects real GDP growth to average about 2 percent annually during the period 2026-2028.
The agency said that recent heat waves caused disruptions in electricity and water supplies, coinciding with high unemployment rates, which contributed to the outbreak of protests in a number of major cities.
Although Fitch believes that the political risks are still limited, it considers the financial risks high, in light of the possibility that the government will resort to increasing social allocations and employment in the public sector in response to social pressures.
