Repercussions of the US-Iranian war: navigational disturbances, military losses, and economic pressures

According to an analysis conducted by Agence France-Presse based on Lloyd's criteria, about 330 million barrels of oil have exited through the Strait of Hormuz since July 8 on ships not linked to Iran, equivalent to about 4.9 million barrels per day. But flows rose steadily during August and September, averaging nearly eight million barrels per day during the first seven days of September. On September 7th alone, more than 14 million barrels exited through the Strait.

In comparison, about 18 million barrels per day crossed the Strait during peacetime, compared to 1.4 million barrels during the first phase of the war when the restrictions were first imposed, and 9.4 million barrels during the talks during which the restrictions were lifted.

Lloyd's defines a transit not linked to Iran as a voyage by a ship that is not heading to or departing from an Iranian port, is not owned by Iran, does not fly its flag, and is not subject to sanctions or part of the “shadow fleet.”

AFP's analysis excluded ships that took the Iranian route out of the Strait of Hormuz.

US President Donald Trump announced in mid-August that "enormous amounts of oil" were being shipped through the strait, but data from Kpler and Lloyd's List Intelligence that track ship movements show that flows are still far below pre-war levels.

White House officials told Axios that the United States has been controlling the corridor adjacent to the Omani coast since about mid-June, when a memorandum of understanding was reached with Iran.

The US military has been accompanying convoys of ships since fighting resumed on July 8, and Iran has once again threatened to attack ships using this route.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, on Tuesday (September 15, 2026), mocked American claims that Iran had become defenseless, referring to a US Department of Defense report detailing the ammunition shortage and damage to US military assets during the war.

Araqchi wrote on the Araqchi was referring to a US Department of Defense report submitted to Congress and published on Monday, and described the losses revealed in the report as only “the tip of the iceberg.”

The same report said that Iranian attacks caused damage or destruction to “hundreds of buildings and facilities” at US military bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Oman and Jordan. The report added that dozens of American fighters and other military aircraft were damaged or destroyed during the war.

Shortly after the conflict erupted following the US and Israeli attacks on Iran on February 28, US President Donald Trump said that the Islamic Republic had “no defenses at all” and claimed that its command, navy and air force had been destroyed.

The US House of Representatives voted for the third time in favor of ending the war with Iran, passing a resolution under the War Powers Act that would halt President Donald Trump's ability to continue military action without congressional approval.

The result of the vote, which took place late Tuesday evening, was 220 votes to 204, similar to previous attempts this summer, with a slightly larger number of Republicans joining all Democrats in voting in favor of ending the conflict. None of these decisions have reached the president's desk, where Trump is very likely to veto the decision.

Representative Seth Moulton, Democrat of Massachusetts, who served in the US Marines during the Iraq War and pushed for the resolution, said: “Do you remember when Donald Trump said this war would only last a few weeks?” He considered that it is time for Congress to "actually ask difficult questions, as the Constitution directs us to do, instead of submitting to another administration that seeks to wage wars."

Republican Representative Brian Mast of Florida, Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, asked about the military resources that Democrats want to withdraw from the region, as he said that Iran still poses a threat. Mast said Trump opposes “endless wars, and this is what puts an end to it,” referring to decades of hostilities with Iran.

The cost of the six-month-long US war against Iran has reached $38 billion so far, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said on Tuesday (September 15, 2026).

The CBO said the majority of costs stem from rapid depletion of munitions, and estimated that it could take five years to replenish U.S. stockpiles.

The rising costs have depleted US ammunition stockpiles and soared energy prices, raising concerns about the country's ability to respond to further potential conflicts and increasing pressure on an already stretched federal budget.

The cost was close to the $37.5 billion reported by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth at a Senate hearing on July 21.

Representatives of the White House and the Pentagon have not yet responded to requests for comment from Reuters.

The investigation was conducted at the request of the Democratic leader of the US House of Representatives Budget Committee, Brendan Boyle from Pennsylvania.

18 members of the US Armed Forces were killed in the war with Iran.

The report did not include the costs of the latest strikes that targeted commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on US military installations in the region.

It also did not take into account the borrowing expenses associated with financing the war, which could add tens of billions of dollars to the total cost.

The report estimated that the main economic impact of the conflict with Iran is the inflationary pressures resulting from disturbances in oil and natural gas prices, as a result of Tehran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The CBO estimates that inflation (consumer price index) in the first quarter of next year will be 0.5 percentage points higher than it forecast in February. The office expected that "core inflation", which excludes the food and energy sectors, would also be 0.3 percentage points higher compared to previous estimates.

Today, Tuesday (September 15, 2026), Republican Representative in the US Congress, Thomas Massie, presented provisions for the procedures for removing Defense Minister Pete Hegseth, accusing him of abusing his position by implementing an order to launch hostilities against Iran without the approval of Congress.

Massie presented the articles of impeachment against Hegseth as priority, meaning the House must consider them within two days of legislative work.

“The entire department is united behind the secretary’s vision and will continue to work to put our warfighters and America’s interests first,” Pentagon spokesman Kingsley Wilson said in an emailed statement.

It is unlikely that the impeachment decision will be approved, but this step taken by the Republican representative from Kentucky may force a vote in the House of Representatives, which may pose a difficulty for some of his Republican colleagues who are preparing to leave Washington before the midterm elections scheduled for November.

Massie, an outspoken critic of the war on Iran and aid to Israel, will not run for re-election. He lost the May primary to Ed Gallerin, a candidate backed by Republican President Donald Trump, after Massie angered the president by leading a campaign to unseal Justice Department files linked to the late businessman convicted of sex crimes Jeffrey Epstein.

Opinion polls indicate that the war, which began with attacks launched by the United States and Israel against Iran on February 28, is unpopular with voters.

Members of Congress, most of whom are Democrats, repeatedly voted in favor of resolutions calling on Trump to end the conflict unless he obtained the support of Congress, but these resolutions did not lead to a cessation of hostilities.

The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees said today, Tuesday (September 15, 2026), that more than 100,000 people have been internally displaced as a result of the renewed conflict in Yemen, while thousands more have fled by sea to Djibouti.

The Commission reported that "the rapid escalation of hostilities along the western coast of Yemen caused the displacement of more than 100,000 people inside the country, and pushed thousands of others to seek refuge in Djibouti, on the other side of the Bab al-Mandab Strait."

The recent battles between the Iran-backed Houthis and the internationally recognized Yemeni government forces backed by Saudi Arabia resulted in the death of hundreds of people, the majority of whom were fighters, according to what sources from both sides of the conflict reported.

The UNHCR expressed its fear of "a new displacement of residents inside Yemen, and other movements of refugees, in the event of an escalation in hostilities." During the past four days, UNHCR counted more than 2,400 people crossing the Red Sea from Yemen to Djibouti, explaining that "more than 60 percent of them are women and children."

UNHCR representative in Djibouti, Sandrine Desamours, said, "These people arrive after a difficult sea crossing, very exhausted... and they carry little of what they were able to take with them."

The Commission warned of the urgent need to provide “shelter, food, drinking water, health care and protection” as “host communities and shelters reach the peak of their absorptive capacity.”

The UNHCR added that humanitarian operations are hampered by "insecurity, damaged roads, communications disruptions, and movement restrictions, especially along the western coast."

She warned that the escalation of fighting could have an “impact on global humanitarian logistics services, which are already under severe pressure due to the ongoing unrest around the Strait of Hormuz,” which is practically closed as a result of the war in the Middle East.

She pointed out that "any new deterioration in the situation may force a detour through the Cape of Good Hope, which will extend the delivery time for shipments from 25 to 30 days."

Oil prices rose slightly today, Tuesday (September 15, 2026), after attacks by the Houthis, allied with Iran, on energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, raising concerns that it will take longer to repair damage to energy infrastructure and transportation routes.

Saudi Arabia, the world's largest crude oil exporter, closed its east-west pipeline due to an attack targeting it last week, and is facing challenges from Houthi attacks in Yemen in the Red Sea region and continued shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Reuters quoted three sources as saying that Saudi Arabia informed its European customers of the cancellation of some crude oil shipments scheduled to be loaded in late September.

Sources in the shipping sector told Reuters today that loading oil at the Saudi port of Yanbu on the Red Sea was suspended due to an attack launched by the Houthi group, but Saudi Aramco refrained from commenting.

Iran war pushes wholesale prices in Germany higher

In Germany, wholesale prices rose last August at their strongest pace in three and a half years.

The Federal Statistical Office in Wiesbaden announced on Tuesday that prices rose by 6.8 percent compared to the same month last year.

The last increase exceeding that in one year was recorded in February 2023, when it reached 9.5 percent. The office explained, "War operations in Iran and the Middle East are still the decisive factor behind the rise in prices in August 2026, as they led to an increase in the prices of energy products and raw materials in wholesale trade in particular."

A report by the Pentagon Inspector General estimates that the US operation against Iran between February 28 and June 30 cost about $33.4 billion, of which $22.3 billion was spent on munitions alone. The report stated that "the consumption of ammunition during Operation Epic Rage caused a shortage in strategic stocks, and revealed obstacles in the industry sector that hinder the replenishment of ammunition stocks." But at the same time, the report refers to the measures taken by the Ministry to accelerate the pace of production.

When press reports reported in June that the United States was imposing restrictions on the use of its missiles, especially interceptor missiles, the government denied this and Trump asserted that the country possessed “enormous amounts of ammunition.” At the beginning of September, the US President was still insisting that the United States possessed “unlimited quantities of ammunition.” According to the press, this lack of ammunition prompted Donald Trump not to renew large-scale attacks against Tehran during the summer. The Pentagon report stated: “Despite the extensive use of interceptor missiles, Iranian strikes damaged and destroyed hundreds of buildings and facilities at American bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Oman, and Jordan.”

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen denounced on Monday (September 14, 2026) the “continuous attacks” launched by “Iranian agents” in the Gulf region, following the recent attacks launched by the Yemeni Houthis on Saudi Arabia.

“I condemn the Houthi attack on the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia,” von der Leyen wrote on the X platform.

She added, "We stand in solidarity with our partners in the Gulf in the face of the continuing attacks launched by Iranian agents... We are all concerned."

She stressed, "We will continue to work with our partners to ensure the freedom and security of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and to achieve stability in the Middle East. We are all concerned with this matter."

Tehran: “Iran does not interfere in Yemeni affairs”

For its part, Iran denied any involvement in the conflict in Yemen, stressing that the Houthis are "completely independent." Foreign Ministry spokesman Ismail Baghaei said, "Iran does not interfere in Yemeni affairs," stressing that the Houthis are "completely independent and make their decisions according to their own interests."

On Monday, Houthi rebels again targeted Saudi Arabia.

The Houthis, an essential part of the network of Iranian-backed armed groups in the Middle East known as the “Axis of Resistance,” accused Saudi Arabia of launching more than 50 raids on their areas during the past 24 hours.

Over the past period, the Houthis have repeatedly announced targeting areas in Saudi Arabia, especially oil facilities in the south of the Kingdom bordering Yemen. On Monday, they announced a rare attack with drones and missiles on the King Khalid Air Base in Khamis Mushait in southern Saudi Arabia.

In July, Yemen returned to the forefront of regional escalation, with the renewed confrontation between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia in the wake of the war between the United States and Iran.

The confrontations began after the Houthis accused Riyadh of bombing Sanaa Airport to prevent an Iranian plane from landing there, before they announced the imposition of a naval blockade on the Kingdom and resumed targeting its tankers and oil facilities, thus ending a truce with the Saudi-backed Yemeni government concluded in 2022.

US President Donald Trump ignored a report that Iran obtained satellite images of a base in Jordan from Chinese entities before an attack that killed three US soldiers there in July. A recent report in the Wall Street Journal cited unnamed US officials regarding the attack in Jordan. When asked if he would address the issue in his upcoming meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Trump did not respond directly, but instead equated China's surveillance activities with those of the United States.

He told reporters on Air Force One, "They are basically doing what we do. When they say that China is spying on us, I tell them: You are right, and we are spying on them, too." The Chinese and US presidents are expected to meet in the United States on September 24, although China has not yet officially confirmed that the meeting will take place. Yesterday, Sunday, Trump reiterated that he has a good relationship with his Chinese counterpart. The Wall Street Journal report, which Reuters has not yet been able to verify, stated that US officials refused to reveal the identity of the Chinese entities that provided Iran with the images, and did not claim direct involvement by Beijing.