China News Service, Beijing, October 19 (Tao Siyue) The National Bureau of Statistics released economic data for the first three quarters on the 19th, and China News Service held the "Economic Situation Analysis Meeting for the Third Quarter of 2026" on the same day. Wang Jiaqiang, a senior researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, said at the meeting that based on the economic data of the first three quarters, it can be observed that the development of my country's new productive forces is impressive.
Wang Jiaqiang said that new quality productivity is based on my country's practice and summarizes it. Against the backdrop of population decline and aging, resource and environmental constraints, and slowing capital formation, it seeks new momentum for the economy and opens up a high-level development path. The significant increase in total factor productivity is a significant manifestation, which is reflected in the increase in macro growth and the optimization of economic structure. It is specifically manifested in innovation-driven, green and low-carbon, open development and changes in production relations.
Based on economic data, the "three new" economy will account for nearly 20% of GDP this year, the real estate and construction industries will account for close to 10%, and the contribution rate of new driving forces to economic growth will exceed 40%.
On the investment side, investment in chips, electronic manufacturing, aerospace and other fields has grown rapidly, offsetting the downward pressure on traditional investment; on the consumer side, service consumption has grown significantly faster than commodity consumption; on the export side, integrated circuit exports have nearly doubled, chips have become the largest export item, and new energy vehicle exports have strong momentum. The field of green development has also achieved global leadership. New energy not only supports the demand for AI computing power, but also provides guarantee for energy security.
The financing structure has also changed accordingly. From January to September, direct financing from bonds and stocks accounted for 49.5% of the increase in social financing scale, adapting to the development of new quality productivity. New models such as intellectual property protection, data element systems, and black light factories also reflect the transformation of production relations to adapt to productivity. Wang Jiaqiang judged that relying on policy support, my country's economy is expected to achieve a growth of 4.5%-5.0% this year.
Looking around the world, AI is becoming the core engine of a new round of technological change, and the cross-integration of digital, energy, biological and other technologies is reshaping economic logic. "China has two outstanding advantages in innovation and green development. Europe has outstanding green development but low innovation, and the United States has strong innovation but weak green development." Wang Jiaqiang pointed out that many of my country's innovation indicators rank among the best in the world, and open source large models, new energy, and new energy vehicles have achieved a leap from following to running alongside and leading.
Driven by AI, in the short term, it relies on investment in computing power and data centers to drive demand, and in the long term, it penetrates the entire industry chain as a general-purpose technology and improves total factor productivity. However, there is a lag period in supply-side release, and there are also potential risks such as asset bubbles.
He also reminded that there are multiple challenges in reality: new kinetic energy has not completely replaced the old kinetic energy, and some industries are insufficient in size; there are shortcomings in key technologies such as precision instruments and high-end chips; some regions blindly launch emerging projects to prevent the risk of overcapacity, etc.
In this regard, Wang Jiaqiang suggested that the monetary and financial environment should be built at the macro level; industrial policies should take into account the cultivation of emerging industries and the support of traditional industries, leaving room for trial and error; system reforms should be used to deal with the derivative risks brought by AI, and safeguard the stability and long-term development of new quality productivity.
