U.S. officials have warned that the growing ties between the Yemeni rebel Houthis and the Somali extremist group al-Shabaab pose an "escalating" threat to regional stability. The youth movement has recently scored a series of military victories along the Red Sea coast and is actively consolidating its control.
The British "Financial Times" reported on the 29th that security and military experts pointed out that the youth movement not only sells weapons to Al-Shabaab, which is allied with al-Qaeda, but also trains hundreds of militants to use drones and explosives, and frequently travels to southern Somalia controlled by Al-Shabaab. Exchanges between the two organizations now pose serious dangers to global trade, oil transport and shipping.
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The youth movement backed by Iran has recently been advancing along the Red Sea coast of Yemen, seizing the port of Mocha this month and approaching the Bab al-Mandeb strait, which controls 10% of global trade. At the same time, they established a tactical stronghold across the Gulf of Aden through an alliance with Al-Shabaab.
A spokesman for the U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM), which is responsible for operations in Africa, said that the connection between the two organizations is "an extremely worrying and escalating threat to regional stability." By integrating operational capabilities, this alliance threatens to expand al-Shabaab's lethal strike range in the "Horn of Africa", while allowing the youth movement to exert deeper influence and disrupt key maritime corridors in the Red Sea and the Western Indian Ocean.
Tim Lenderking, the former U.S. special envoy to Yemen, pointed out that from the perspective of the youth movement's strategy, this alliance is very reasonable, "especially when it comes to waterway control, they will be able to attack from both sides." He pointed out that the United States will begin to pay attention to this ongoing relationship in 2024. The youth movement attaches great importance to this alliance, as its strategic plans include extending its influence beyond Yemen's borders.
Regional experts say ties between the two sides are deepening despite sectarian differences (the youth movement adheres to the radical Zaydi sect of Shia Islam and al-Shabab is Sunni). Initially, the relationship was primarily based on transactions. The United Nations conservatively estimates that Al-Shabaab raises $120 million a year through taxes, port duties and extortion; however, Somali security expert Guled Ahmed estimates that the actual number may be 10 times higher, making it one of the richest Al Qaeda affiliates in the world.
On the other hand, the youth movement possesses Iranian weapons and technology and has the industrial capacity to produce missiles and drones on its own. Ahmed said: "The relationship between the two parties is evolving from smuggling to a combat partnership involving weapons, drones and technical expertise." He warned that if al-Shabaab obtains the technology to operate medium-range missiles and unmanned boats, the threat network will extend to the Western Indian Ocean.
Matt Bryden, a senior Somali expert who once led the UN Security Council expert group, revealed that as many as 1,500 Somali militants (including Al-Shabaab and other factions) have received training from the youth movement in Yemen. In addition, there is evidence that al-Shabaab has sought more sophisticated weapons, including the Iranian-made S358 surface-to-air missile, but it has not yet been found on the battlefield in Somalia.
Brydon pointed out that this year, youth movement envoys have visited Al-Shabaab’s base camp in Jilib, southern Somalia, more frequently this year, and have used the new alliance to install radar and other equipment in Somalia to monitor shipping on the African coast.
One of the impetus for this alliance stems from Israel's recognition of the self-proclaimed independent "Somaliland" as an independent country in December last year. It is generally believed in the region that Israel's move is aimed at establishing a military stronghold in the Gulf of Aden to counter the youth movement. In addition, the United Arab Emirates, which has been at war with the youth movement, has also taken control of the naval base and airstrip at the port of Berbera in Somaliland.
Peter Salisbury, an adjunct professor at Columbia University, analyzed that the youth movement seeks to establish relations with another armed group that is strongly anti-Israel and anti-American in order to counter Israel's layout in Somaliland. "The youth movement wants to be allowed to recruit in Somalia and use the country to monitor the Gulf of Aden and launch attacks."
Salsbury warned that although the long-term ambitions of both sides remain unpredictable, the youth movement may do to al-Shabaab what Iran and Hezbollah did to the youth movement, "slowly but surely improving its skills while deepening its dependence."
