Metin Aktaşoğlu / [email protected] - The midterm elections in the USA are about to result in a clear victory for the Democrats in both houses of Congress. The distribution in the Senate, which has a total of 100 seats, has changed from 53-47 in favor of the Republicans as of 12.30 on November 4, to 54-46 in favor of the Democrats, even if the Republicans win in Nebraska, Alaska and Mississippi, where the counting continues at that time. In the House of Representatives, where they had a majority with 218 seats, the Democrats turned the score of 218-214 against them to 228-139 in their favor as of 12.30. Donald Trump criticized his party in his unique style by saying, "I was not on the ballot. If I had been, we would have won by a large margin," and stated that he would accept the election results and that he was ready to work with a Congress in which the Democrats were in the majority. While Trump emphasized that he always had the right to veto, he also said that he would not keep vetoing everything during his remaining two years in the White House.
Of course, the resulting situation has the potential to have consequences that will seriously affect not only US domestic politics but also the entire world. However, the election is also expected to have effects on Türkiye. Because Trump's return to the "lame duck" as a political concept brings to mind issues on the table with the USA, such as F-35s, modernization of F-16s, KAAN engines, and the removal of CAATSA sanctions. Former Consul General of Turkey in Los Angeles Gülru Gezer and Rector of Beykoz University Prof. Dr. Burak Küntay reviewed it for Milliyet.com.tr.
How does the change in the congress arithmetic in both wings affect the current situations regarding the F-35 partnership, F-16 modernization processes, KAAN's engine and the relaxation of CAATSA sanctions, which have been on Türkiye's agenda for a long time?
Gülru Gezer: Some conditions were required to be fulfilled, such as somehow taking the S-400s out of Türkiye's borders. If this happens, the 2021 National Defense Authorization Bill (NDAA) also needs to be changed. Until today, in fact, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and the Minister of Defense could have written a letter and said to Congress, "Turkey has fulfilled the conditions" after Turkey removed the S-400s from its territory, that they could change the NDAA. So, unfortunately, this could not happen during this period when Trump was strong. From now on, of course, the fact that Democrats are dominant in both the House of Representatives and the Senate may make things difficult. I wouldn't say it's impossible, but it will definitely be harder.
Prof. Dr. Burak Küntay: This question was always asked during the Türkiye leg. "Republicans are close to us, Democrats are far away. If Republicans leave and Democrats come, will the positive atmosphere towards Türkiye cease?" Regarding CAATSA, there has been no change in the F-35s and F-16s, although it was said 'Today, tomorrow'. So, if a Democrat replaces Trump tomorrow, there may be a greater rapprochement, but if another Republican comes, maybe a negative situation may occur. In short, I do not think that these results will radically affect Turkish-American relations, and I do not assume such a thing at all. Relationships and the steps to be taken are related to the dynamics and balances of that day.
'WE NEED TO PRESS FULL FIELD!'
Personal dialogues between leaders are important in Türkiye-US relations, so what steps should Ankara take in this situation that emerged in the Congress?
Gülru Gezer: In relations with the USA, this work has three legs: The first is the White House, the second is the Pentagon, and the third is the Congress. For example, our Ministry of National Defense started working with a lobbying company in this context, but Congress is very important here. It seems that there will be no Congress governed by Trump. Therefore, it may be through parliamentary diplomacy from the Turkish Grand National Assembly to the Congress, it may be through movements such as the revival of the Türkiye-America Friendship Group, or it may be through lobbying companies. In other words, it is necessary to play the dynamics in America according to America's rules. That's why we can't ignore Congress here. I have been underlining for years that the Congress should not be neglected on television, and from now on we need to make increasingly more intense, full-field pressure on the Congress, in football terms.
Prof. Dr. Burak Küntay: One of Türkiye's brightest periods in terms of relations was during the Democrat Bill Clinton period. Again, one of the bright periods was during the era of Bush Sr., and he was a Republican. Türkiye's best and worst periods in terms of relations were experienced during the Trump era. Relations between leaders are of course very important in diplomacy, it means an extra channel. But it is not right to read everything through him. It should not be read as "Democrats have arrived, relations with Türkiye will be bad from now on". The conjuncture of that day, the momentum of that day, "Where is Türkiye, where is the USA, where do the interests meet, where do they conflict?" The issues are important.
'WE NEED TO START WORKING NOW FOR TWO YEARS LATER'
How will the possible change of seats in the US Congress affect the Eastern Mediterranean, considering the pressure on the Congress from the pro-Greece and Greek Cypriot Administration (GCA) lobbies? Can you also address the question within the framework of Türkiye's vision of becoming a regional energy center?
Gülru Gezer: It is definitely very important to develop institutional relations. Because Trump is gone after 2 years. So it's not just the Eastern Mediterranean; Syria, America's Syria policy, Middle East policy... How will all of these take shape? Will America ever return to factory settings again? What will be the repercussions of these for Türkiye? Therefore, while maintaining good relations at the leadership level, institutional relations must be strengthened quickly. Surely our state is doing what is necessary, but we may encounter a different picture in 2 years. Because the Greek-Greek lobby, the Israeli lobby... The Armenian lobby has become somewhat ineffective within the framework of new developments, but the Armenian lobby working for these three lobbies is also; He cannot give up his anti-Türkiye stance. Therefore, these lobbies do not sleep, they continue to work. That's why we need to work increasingly in this process. In other words, we need to work hard to prevent relations from turning into the Biden era.
So, let's emphasize this: As long as Trump continues to be president in the next 2 years, I do not foresee serious changes in foreign policy in general. Because Trump is still president. But we need to work for 2 years from now, not for tomorrow. This is the point I want to emphasize. I do not think that Trump will allow some decisions to be made against Türkiye and against Türkiye's interests in the next 2 years. From where? Because it sees Türkiye as an important actor in its region and beyond. In other words, when it comes to the Middle East, Turkey, when it comes to Ukraine, Turkey, Turkish States, when it comes to Turkestan, Turkey, when it comes to the Caucasus, Turkey, etc., etc. He is aware of Türkiye's role, but he is also a businessman.
Now, when we look at it, a month or two ago, the Greek Cypriot Administration of Southern Cyprus, Greece and their energy ministers met in Texas, hosted by the American Minister of Energy, and they reached an agreement on developing cooperation. So, on the one hand, the Greek-Greek lobby and Israel do not stop to surround Türkiye in the Eastern Mediterranean. patriotism, but we still have a 2-year process ahead of us in terms of a move against Türkiye. We need to evaluate this process well.
America can also undertake many projects with Türkiye. We have also taken important steps in energy cooperation with American companies. Their memorandum of understanding was signed in the past months. In other words, this process will not suddenly turn into the Biden era because Trump is still president. And there is a team within the management who knows that Türkiye is important in its region and understands it from every angle. But while we continue our cooperation with them, we also need to maintain very good relations in other areas - generally speaking - with the quartet of the White House, Congress, State Department and the Pentagon.
Prof. Dr. Burak Küntay: Türkiye is doing very good work in the defense industry. We do not have to keep another country's army or weapons inside our country. This is a very important luxury. It is a very important sign of independence for Türkiye. To be frank, it is not a pleasant situation for Greece in terms of independence. There is a constant threat from Türkiye in domestic politics, which Türkiye does not even care about... I mean, we are talking about completely different things, but turn on the television in Greece and hear the question 'Where will Türkiye attack from?' every evening. He has a speech. This created a bad ecosystem for Greece, and they filled the country with the defense industry of other countries and weapons from Israel, here and there. I mean this; Actually, there is no change for us. We continue with our same vision and same mission. The change here is a point that other countries should think more about. Now Türkiye's power in the region, elections, results, etc. a reality above it.
Will the emerging picture force Trump to return to domestic politics for the remainder of his presidency?
Gülru Gezer: So things will not be easy for Trump. For example, I wonder, how will this budget period go? As you know, last year was the longest shutdown in history. The previous longest shutdown was also during Trump's term. So now here the Democrats will start to show serious resistance. When I look again, another question—will the impeachment proceedings of Pete Hegseth or Bob Kennedy begin? Because Democrats are now in Congress in a position to do this.
Now, of course, none of this will be easy for Trump. Apart from that, some appointments are in the Senate... Let's see if Trump can pass these appointments, from ambassadors to members of the Supreme Court, through the Senate. So, he will have to spend most of his time a little more internally. Because Congress will force it.
