In the midterm elections held on November 3 in the USA, Democrats won a significant victory against the Republicans and gained the majority in the Senate and the House of Representatives.
Democrats, who interpret the election results as a reaction to Trump's economic and foreign policy choices, are preparing to increase control over the administration, especially regarding the Iran war and the use of presidential powers.
So, could the United States be on the verge of a historic political transformation that occurred half a century ago?
In his analysis published on November 6, Responsible Statecraft author Jim Lobe examined the similarities between the 1974 and 2026 midterm elections and evaluated the extent to which the new Congress could limit Trump's powers.
THE RESIGNATION THAT CHANGED AMERICA
The 1974 midterm elections were held three months after President Richard Nixon resigned due to the Watergate scandal. The information that emerged about the Nixon administration's abuse of power caused a great reaction in the American public.
The secret bombing of Cambodia and Laos, the CIA's activities to overthrow the elected government in Chile, and the excess of Congress's powers over the budget were at the center of the discussions.
Moreover, the US economy was also experiencing a severe crisis. The oil embargo imposed due to Washington's support for Israel in the 1973 Arab-Israeli War deepened the economic recession.
The painting was very similar to today's.
In this environment, Democrats won 4 more seats in the Senate and 49 more seats in the House of Representatives. A significant portion of the 76 new Democratic members who entered Congress came from the anti-war and civil rights movements.
These politicians, referred to as the 'Watergate generation', took action to limit the ever-expanding powers of American presidents.
RESTRICTIONS ON THE CIA AND THE PRESIDENT
Congress first intervened in American foreign aid. While military aid to Chile, South Korea and Türkiye was limited, human rights violations became one of the determining criteria in foreign aid decisions.
Then, the secret operations of the CIA and the Department of Defense were conditioned on the official approval of the president and the informing of Congress.
In 1975, the Senate and the House of Representatives established two separate commissions to investigate the activities of intelligence agencies. These investigations, known as the Church and Pike commissions, revealed numerous practices of overreach by the CIA and FBI.
With subsequent regulations, the USA's secret military support to the Angolan civil war was banned, and arms sales to authoritarian governments were controlled.
Another law passed in 1976 gave Congress the authority to end states of emergency declared by the president.
The most striking feature of these reforms was that they were carried out with the joint support of Democrats and Republicans.
CAN WAR DIVIDE REPUBLICANS?
According to Jim Lobe, the expansion of presidential powers in Trump's second term has revived the "imperial presidency" debates of the Nixon era.
However, the seats won by Democrats in the 2026 elections are not enough to overcome Trump's veto on their own. This requires Republican support.
Lobe particularly draws attention to the differences of opinion created by the Iran war within the Republican Party.
Vice President J.D. Vance's association of the election defeat with the Iran war and some Republican lawmakers' demand for greater congressional control over military operations are considered signs of this divergence.
National Security Archive expert Peter Kornbluh argues that the new Congress has a historic opportunity to limit Trump's powers.
In contrast, Council on Foreign Relations expert Charles Kupchan does not expect a serious change due to the presidential veto and political polarization in Congress.
The decisive question, according to Lobe, is what consequences Republicans will draw from their election defeat.
It is still unclear whether the bipartisan consensus that strengthened Congress after Nixon in 1974 will re-emerge in the Trump era.
