Compiled by: Metin Aktaşoğlu / [email protected] - All eyes are on the results of the "midterm elections" taking place in the USA. The elections will have consequences for President Donald Trump, for Republicans, for Democrats, for Europe, Asia and, of course, the Middle East. So what does this byelection mean and why is it so important? How might the consequences affect Trump's remaining term? With the presidential election still 2 years away, what exactly are US voters choosing right now?
WHAT DO “MID-METER ELECTIONS” MEAN?
Congress in the USA consists of two parts. This is called the bicameral system. There is the Senate, which acts as the upper house, and the House of Representatives, which paves the way for wider representation, below it. In the UK we still see this in the House of Lords and the House of Commons. To remind you, in the Ottoman Empire in 1876, with the Constitution, the General Assembly consisted of the Parliament elected by the people and the Notable Assembly elected by the sultan. In accordance with the 1961 Constitution, the Turkish Grand National Assembly operated with a bicameral system, consisting of the National Assembly and the Senate of the Republic, between 1961 and 1980.
Going back to the USA, elections are held every two years in the Congress, whose main duty is to create and pass federal laws valid throughout the country. When these elections occur in the middle of the president's four-year term, they are referred to as "midterm elections."
According to this electoral structure, which was established to prevent the current president and his party or another political structure from completely controlling the system, it will determine which political party - Trump's Republicans or the opposition Democrats - will control Congress and how easily the president can implement his plans.
And of course, as in every election, the results will also be seen as a measure of how satisfied people are with the president's performance so far.
WHAT WILL THE USA CHOOSE IN THIS INTERMEDIATE ELECTION?
In the USA, voters will elect all 435 members of the House of Representatives, the lower house of Congress. Members serve for two years. In this parliament, mainly draft laws are presented and discussed. On the other hand, the election system in the Senate, which is the upper house, is different. In this midterm election, 35 of the 100 total seats in the Senate will be electable. Senators serve 6-year terms. Among their other duties, senators approve or block bills coming from the House of Representatives. In addition, on the same day, the governors of the US states of California, Florida, Georgia and Michigan will also be elected.
WILL TRUMP BE A 'LAME DUCK'?
Congress is one of the three basic branches of the principle of separation of powers in the USA (Legislative: Congress, Executive: President, Judiciary: Supreme Court) and is of great importance in shaping the laws. Both the House of Representatives and the Senate are currently held by Republicans by small margins. Republicans have 218 seats in the House of Representatives, the minimum required for a majority. Republicans can reach this number with one independent member voting with them.
In the Senate, Republicans have 53 seats. Democrats need to reach 51 to get the majority, because in a 50-50 scenario, the tie is broken by the vote of the "vice presidential" office, which is currently occupied by a Republican.
If opposition Democrats regain control of at least one chamber, they will have the power to bring their own legislation to the parliamentary agenda. A scenario in which Democrats win both chambers could have very unpleasant consequences for Trump, and yes, this result could push Trump into a "lame duck" position. In line with this concern, Trump said in an interview with the podcast program "Pod Force One" on November 2 that he would veto everything that comes his way if the Republicans lose the elections.
WHO WILL WIN?
It is of course impossible to answer this question, but in the past voters tended to “punish” the president's party and vote against the president. When viewed in this context, the picture is worrying for Donald Trump. Because the latest polls indicate that Trump's "approval rate" has dropped considerably. Silver Bulletin shows that Trump started his second term with an "approval rate" of just over 50 percent, and today this rate has dropped to 37 percent. Another research company, Pew, shows the same rate as 30 percent.
However, it is not possible to say that there will be a competition for all seats in both chambers. The Cook Political Report, which analyzes campaigns and elections, suggests that the “number of undecided districts” that can be won by either party is limited. In its latest update, it found meaningful races in 18 House districts and 7 Senate districts, including states like Florida and Michigan.
WHAT WILL THE RESULTS MEAN FOR TRUMP?
If Democrats win the House or Senate, it will be difficult for Trump to pass any legislation in Congress. Therefore, Mr. President's plans in domestic politics may be disrupted. On the other hand, and more importantly, Democrats taking control of both chambers may mean that a series of investigations against Trump may begin. There's an investigation into allegations of corruption, a controversial new ballroom at the White House and ICE interventions that caused outrage.
Opinions within the Democratic Party calling for Trump's dismissal will also come to the fore again in a scenario where Democrats win both elections. Accusations may be brought by Congress that will form the basis of a political trial.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR THE 2028 ELECTION?
The president is not actually the direct addressee of this election, but voter practices in midterm elections are generally focused on evaluating the president's actions. Trump also calls on Republican voters to "act as if their name is on the ballot." Naturally, both results will discuss the success or failure of Trump and his actions.
As for 2028, although Donald Trump and some of his supporters act as if there is a gray picture, Trump cannot run for the presidency for the third time according to US law. In fact, the results of the midterm elections may be the starting point for discussions about who will be Trump's successor in 2028. In addition, candidate discussions on the Democratic side are expected to begin after this election.
