
AI-generated summary
While the USA implemented stricter fuel efficiency standards during the previous Biden administration, the new regulation now proposed by the Ministry of Transportation aims to relax these standards. While this reduces the cost of vehicle purchase, it can increase long-term fuel consumption and environmental impacts.
The ministry's own calculations show that easing standards will reduce new vehicle costs while increasing fuel consumption and carbon dioxide emissions in the coming years.
Under the plan, average fuel consumption across the fleet is expected to decrease to 34.5 miles per gallon (14.7 kilometers per liter) by 2031.
The target during the Biden period was 50.4 miles per gallon (21.4 kilometers per liter) in the same period.
According to Ministry of Transportation data, the new regulation will reduce the average purchasing cost per vehicle by $930.
In contrast, an additional 100 billion gallons of fuel will be consumed by 2050, an additional $185 billion will come out of drivers' pockets for fuel, and carbon dioxide emissions will increase by approximately 5 percent.
The Trump administration in December proposed retroactively lowering standards for the 2022 model year, then limiting annual increases to 0.25 percent to 0.5 percent until 2031.
Democratic Party member Joe Biden decided to increase vehicle standards by 8 percent annually for 2024 and 2025 models, by 10 percent in 2026, and by 2 percent annually between 2027 and 2031.
With these steps, the Biden administration aimed to reduce fossil fuel consumption, accelerate the transition to clean energy, and make the USA the global leader in the production of these technologies.
Experts warn that the export ban could shake global and local balances.
According to Morgan Stanley data, the USA, which exports 1.3 million barrels of diesel and imports 0.2 million barrels per day, produces more than it consumes.
Analysts point out that if exports are cut, storage facilities on the US Gulf coast will be completely full in about three weeks.
Speaking to the AFP news agency, Rystad Energy analyst Jorge Leon said that a possible export ban would reduce diesel prices in the short term by increasing supply within the USA.
However, Leon drew attention to the functioning of the refineries and made the following assessment: "If excess diesel accumulates that cannot be exported, refineries will have to cut production. This means less gasoline and aviation fuel will be produced. As a result, diesel prices will decline while gasoline and jet fuel prices will rise."
DNB Carnegie analysts Helge Andre Martinsen and Tobias Ingebrigtsen stated that the ban would escalate global refinery margins and pump prices.
A step in this direction could create a new energy shock in the European market, which is especially dependent on diesel coming from the USA and will have difficulty closing the resulting gap.
Global diesel supplies are already running into serious deficits. A significant portion of processed petroleum products originating from the Middle East cannot reach the market due to war-related maritime transportation disruptions and damaged facilities.
Following Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries, Moscow, a major producer, also imposed a moratorium on diesel exports.
Consultancy company Bersingeco shared its prediction that if the USA stops shipping products to Europe, the pump price of diesel in France could rise to 3.90 euros ($4.40) per liter.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
If the US diesel export ban is implemented, storage facilities on the US Gulf coast will be full in about three weeks.
Likely · Within weeks
In France, the pump price of diesel can climb to 3.90 euros ($4.40) per liter.
Possible · Within months

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