Despite the conflict in the Middle East and the restrictive turn of the central banks, the cycle of Italian SMEs shows signs of holding up. In September the AcomeA PMI Tracker rose to 47.6, the highest level since June 2023: it remains below the expansion threshold, but the improvement is widespread across all components. Expectations on production and employment are above the threshold of 50, while those on selling prices (58.2) indicate that companies retain pricing power, as exports at historic highs also suggest. On the stock market, the performance since the beginning of the year remains positive for all the main indices except the Star, with the EGM (+9.4%) ahead of mid and small caps, but with a growing dispersion of returns within the lists. On the EGM, the recovery of IPOs continues, even if the balance between listings and delisting remains negative for the third consecutive year. The global picture remains exposed to high energy costs, rising rates and widening sovereign spreads.
Exports remain at their highest
Despite the introduction of US duties, Italian exports to the United States remain at historic highs, up 2.3% compared to a year ago. On a sectoral level, the increase in foreign sales is driven above all by pharmaceuticals (in December approximately +30% compared to the previous year), but also by categories mostly linked to the global investment cycle of artificial intelligence (energy generating machines, in July marked a +13% on an annual basis, and office and computer machines marked a +28.6% in July compared to the previous year), a sign that Italian companies are also participating in the mega trend of investments linked to AI.
AcomeA PMI Tracker
In September the synthetic index stood at 47.6, the highest level since June 2023. The economic cycle of Italian SMEs is therefore showing a certain resilience in the face of global tensions. Compared to the beginning of the year, all components of the index have improved. This signals a widespread recovery of the cycle, not driven by a single factor that could prove idiosyncratic. The forward-looking production and employment indicators, among the most cyclically relevant, remain above the threshold of 50; most entrepreneurs therefore expect an increase in production and staff.
The assessments on total orders and new orders from abroad are still below the expansion threshold, but are stabilizing at higher levels than at the beginning of the year, a sign of an improvement, albeit marginal. Finally, sales price expectations (58.2) remain a crucial factor for the recovery of Italian SMEs. Most entrepreneurs plan to increase prices. The push is likely to come in part from higher production costs and the need to protect margins. However, the data indicates that Italian SMEs retain a certain pricing power.
Exports as a resilience factor
In the Public Finance Policy Document of October, the Government revised the GDP growth estimate for 2026 upwards to 1.0%, from the 0.6% indicated in the Public Finance Document in April. Among the factors underlying the more favorable revision compared to the spring scenario is an expected growth in exports revised upwards by 2.3 percentage points. Foreign trade data confirm the resilience of the sector. In the twelve months ending in July 2026, the trade surplus of goods amounted to approximately 54 billion euros, approximately 2.4% of GDP. Net of energy products, the surplus rises to around 104 billion.
Despite the rise in energy prices in recent months weighing on the balance of Italy, a net energy importing country, the trade surplus remained stable: the increase in the energy bill was offset by the improvement in the balance of other goods. In value, exports are at historic highs; this partly reflects price dynamics, rather than greater volumes, but confirms the pricing power of Italian companies abroad.
SMEs on the stock market: the EGM race
For Italian stock indices, the performance since the beginning of the year remains positive, despite the partial weakness in September. We see disparities between the mid and small cap indices and the main index, but continue to see increasing dispersion of returns within the indices. Structural trends linked to artificial intelligence, semiconductors and the energy sector (led by both oil and renewables) also see many Italian SMEs as protagonists. The performance of the EGM segment is particularly strong, although concentrated on some specific names. Precisely in this segment we observe a recovery in IPOs during the year, albeit of a smaller size and collection. At the moment, the net balance between listings and delisting remains negative, as it has for three years now. However, the performance of the overall market proves to be accompanied by good selectivity on the part of investors.
