AfD extends lead to seven points - majority of Union supporters dissatisfied with Merz

The AfD is now seven percentage points ahead of the CDU and CSU in favor of voters. In the “Trend Barometer” published on Tuesday by the Forsa Institute for RTL and ntv, the party achieved 27 percent, one point more than in the previous week. The Union maintains its value of 20 percent.

The SPD lost one point and stood at 13 percent. The coalition only has a third of the votes in the survey. In the 2025 federal election, the CDU and CSU had 28.6 percent, the SPD 16.4 percent and the AfD 20.8 percent.

The Greens also lose a point, they are now at 16 percent. The left remains at eleven percent. The FDP has been at four percent since the spring and would therefore fail at the five percent hurdle. The BSW is below three percent and is therefore one of the other parties that together reach nine percent, one point more than a week ago. The proportion of non-voters and undecided people is 27 percent.

The survey results at a glance:

AfD: 27 percent (+1)

CDU/CSU: 20 percent (+/-)

Greens: 16 percent (-1)

SPD: 13 percent (-1)

Left: 11 percent (+/-)

FDP: 4 percent (+/-)

Other: 9 percent (+1; including BSW)

The majority of Union supporters are dissatisfied with Merz

As in the previous week, eleven percent of those surveyed are satisfied with the work of Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU). 86 percent are dissatisfied, one point less than a week ago. Men and women judge equally. In the debate about a candidate for the office of Federal President, Merz recently came across criticism from her own camp.

Dissatisfaction is greatest among 30 to 44 year olds at 92 percent and among 18 to 29 year olds at 90 percent. The figure is 87 percent among 45 to 59 year olds and 79 percent among those aged 60 and over.

Of the Union supporters, 56 percent are dissatisfied with the Chancellor and 40 percent are satisfied. Dissatisfaction among SPD supporters is 84 percent and among Green Party supporters it is 87 percent. The supporters of the Left are almost entirely dissatisfied with 98 percent and the AfD with 99 percent.

The Left passes the SPD in terms of competence

When asked which party is best able to deal with the problems in Germany, nine percent named the Union, as in the previous week. In mid-2025, when the federal government was new in office, this value was 27 percent.

The SPD loses one point and gets five percent. This puts it behind the Left, which improved by one point to six percent. The Greens remain at seven percent, the AfD is further ahead at 13 percent. 58 percent don't trust any party to be able to deal with the problems.

Forsa surveyed a total of 2,501 people for the “Trend Barometer” on behalf of RTL Deutschland from November 3rd to 9th, 2026. The statistical margin of error is plus/minus 2.5 percentage points. 1009 people were surveyed about the competence of the parties; the margin of error here is plus/minus three percentage points.