AfD success in Saxony-Anhalt: analysis of the causes of the election results

In Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD has performed better than in any other federal state. Pollsters provide insightful explanations.

Berlin. For many years it seemed as if the Federal Republic was immune to right-wing populist tendencies that had long been observed in other Western democracies. But this no longer applies to the AfD.

In Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD performed better in the state elections than in any other federal state. With 43.8 percent, top candidate Ulrich Siegmund's state association clearly outperforms even the federal party.

How can the boom for the AfD be explained? Why do many voters tend to vote for the party that is classified as right-wing extremist in Saxony-Anhalt? The Handelsblatt analyzed the background based on survey data from Infratest dimap and the Elections Research Group.

The AfD uses higher voter turnout

In detail, data from Infratest dimap shows that the AfD primarily took advantage of the historically high voter turnout. The AfD was also able to mobilize many former CDU voters.

The AfD dominates among these groups of voters

The AfD was able to gain votes in practically all voter groups. What is particularly striking is the high proportion of women among AfD voters - and the fact that the party is clearly ahead even among highly educated people.

What voters think about the AfD and CDU

While the AfD is primarily credited with addressing the concerns and moods of the population and representing certain political positions more consistently, the verdict on the CDU is much more critical. The picture here is dominated by disappointments about previous promises.

Many voters see the AfD in the political center

There is considerable agreement among voters overall that the AfD, despite individual right-wing extremist politicians, is generally in the political center. This assessment is particularly widespread among AfD supporters.

Which topics decided the election

The motives for voting for the AfD and CDU differ significantly. While questions of security and immigration are more important to AfD voters, social security, peace and the economic situation are more important to CDU voters.

AfD with high competency scores on important issues

In Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD is perceived as particularly competent in almost all of the political areas surveyed. It is ahead of the CDU on key issues such as the economy, education, infrastructure and social justice. Their lead is particularly clear in asylum and refugee policy.

The AfD is strong in all federal states

The AfD has made gains in elections across Germany since 2023. In the eastern German states, however, the increases are often stronger, while the party's gains are generally less significant in the west. Saxony-Anhalt particularly stands out.