AfD wins in Saxony-Anhalt, CDU suffers historic defeat - consequences for Merz and federal politics

Berlin. Landmark victory for the AfD, crushing defeat for the CDU: The election in Saxony-Anhalt also has the potential to shake up federal politics - especially the Union and Chancellor Friedrich Merz. He followed the forecasts and projections in the Konrad-Adenauer-Haus in the evening with the CDU leadership.

Possibly less than 20 percent, not even half of the AfD result. It is a shock for the CDU, which Secretary General Franziska Hoppermann describes very cautiously in her initial reaction. “In any case, it is a very difficult result for us and also affects us as Christian Democrats.”

At this point, shortly after 6 p.m., the consequences cannot yet be foreseen. There are two options: With the AfD, a party classified as right-wing extremist comes to power in a federal state for the first time. Or there is a CDU-led minority government that would be dependent on the help of the Left.

An absolute majority for the AfD would trigger an unprecedented political earthquake far beyond Saxony-Anhalt. The search for the culprits would very quickly lead to Berlin. Specifically: to the Chancellery. It can certainly be assumed that Merz from his own party would be held partly responsible for this.

Top candidate Schulze has repeatedly complained in recent weeks that his election campaign was being negatively overshadowed by federal politics. He even opposed the pension reform, the Chancellor's most important reform project.

Merz would probably have to answer for the federal party's share of responsibility for an AfD victory on his own. Even before the summer break, no one came to his aid when discontent over his personnel castling broke out in the CDU. His authority is considered to have been compromised.

But no matter how catastrophic a breakthrough by the AfD may seem socially, politically and for the CDU, it also represents an opportunity for Merz and the coalition in Berlin. The Chancellor will argue that the center must now withstand the pressure from the far right. If it were to dismantle itself, the AfD would have achieved another goal. In the end, this could even strengthen the cohesion of the black-red coalition. And Merz’s chancellorship.

CDU top candidate Sven Schulze admitted his party's failure in his first reaction. “It’s a defeat for us.” However, he initially did not comment on possible government constellations.

If the AfD does not achieve an absolute majority, the Prime Minister must be the first to answer the question: How does his party feel about the Left? In 2018, the CDU put up a double firewall to the left and to the right. A federal party conference decided at the time that “coalitions and similar forms of cooperation” with either the AfD or the Left were out of the question.

Merz reiterated this again a few days before the election in an interview with the “Mitteldeutsche Zeitung” and the “Magdeburger Volksstimme”. “Both the AfD and the Left Party have such fundamental differences from the Union that cooperation is impossible.”

But what does collaboration mean? Merz also defined this in the interview, thereby supporting Schulze's line in the election campaign: There will be no common government program and no personal participation in the government. At the same time, Merz referred to Thuringia and Saxony, where minority governments are selectively supported by the Left through complicated “consultation mechanisms” - without any formal commitment.

However, there is already open resistance in the CDU against such an approach. A few days ago, the deputy Union parliamentary group leader in the Bundestag, Sepp Müller, openly advocated that the task of forming a government should initially be given to the AfD if it were to become by far the strongest party. “If the survey results become election results, then Ulrich Siegmund has a mandate to form a government with the AfD,” he told Politico.

People like Müller fear that they will leave the party on a larger scale if the CDU cooperates with the Left. And they fear that this will only further strengthen the AfD. At the next election in five years, she will get a two-thirds majority in Saxony-Anhalt, is her gloomy forecast.

A further crumbling firewall on the left could also lead to those in the CDU daring to take cover who want to tear down the firewall to the right - something that is out of the question for Merz and the party leadership in Berlin. The situation could get out of hand. In the worst case scenario, some see the risk of a split in the party.

In contrast to Merz, the chairmen of the coalition partner SPD, Lars Klingbeil and Bärbel Bas - can - at least superficially - breathe a sigh of relief for now. For weeks, the Social Democrats had to fear that they would fail at the 5 percent hurdle. Now it seems clear: you will also sit in the next Magdeburg state parliament. And they don't even have to accept major losses. “This is an important sign for us that the SPD is a force to be reckoned with,” said General Secretary Tim Klüssendorf on ARD.

But the result is deceptive. Many voters may have chosen Magdeburg tactically: the more smaller parties entered the state parliament, the less likely it was that the AfD would have an absolute majority. So who voted for the SPD out of conviction? And who is there to prevent an AfD government?

Things should now be quieter, at least in the debate about the SPD party chairmanship. He's not asking himself that question at all now, emphasized Klüssendorf in the Willy Brandt House. Klingbeil and Bas are still counted among parts of the party base - but they too are now likely to concentrate on the election in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania in two weeks. Prime Minister Manuela Schwesig has recently caught up and still has a chance of finishing ahead of the AfD.

How dangerous it will be for Merz in the fall also depends on the results of the two state elections on September 20th in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. In Berlin, the CDU is threatened with losing the office of governing mayor - possibly to the left. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania - if things go really badly - it could fall below the ten percent mark to fourth place.

There, too, the question of cooperation with the Left could arise when forming a government beyond the AfD. The debate about changing the chancellor could then break out again.

But another scenario is also possible: In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the CDU is spared a single-digit result as well as a difficult government formation - if it is enough for red-red-green. And the Berlin CDU top candidate Stefan Evers wins the election and becomes governing mayor. Such a scenario would ease the pressure on Merz.