Glaciers on Mount Ararat are melting rapidly: Climate and disaster warning from experts

Ağrı İbrahim Çeçen University (AİÇÜ) Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Department of Geography, Lecturer Prof. Dr. Faruk Kaya warned about Mount Ararat, where the glaciers are rapidly shrinking after the disaster in Nepal. Stating that, according to the research and current satellite data, there is a shrinkage in the skullcap glacier covering the summit of Mount Ararat, Kaya said, "The glacier area, which was approximately 15 square kilometers in the early 1900s, has decreased to approximately 5 square kilometers according to satellite measurements today. While in the past, glacier troughs and glacier valleys went down to 3 thousand 600 meters, today it has retreated to almost 4 thousand 900 meters."

The loss of life in the flood disaster that occurred on the border between Nepal and Tibet on August 26, when a rock-ice mass broke off on the northern face of the Langtang Lirung Peak, exceeded a thousand, and nearly 5 thousand missing people are being sought. Investigating the disaster caused by the glacier breaking off from the mountain, Ağrı İbrahim Çeçen University (AİÇÜ) Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Department of Geography faculty member Prof. Dr. Faruk Kaya reported that a similar incident took place on Mount Ararat in 1840.

THE DISAPPEARANCE OF AHURA

Prof. stated that the most well-known event in Türkiye's glacier-induced disaster history took place in 1840 in the 'Cehennem Creek' valley, known as Ahura Valley, on the northeastern foothills of Mount Ararat. Dr. Faruk Kaya said, "There is still debate among scientists about the mechanism of the event. A study published in the journal Geomorphology in 2019 suggests that the rapid snow-ice melting triggered by the earthquake and a possible volcanic activity created a large volcanic mud flow, while some scientists state that it first occurred when a huge rock-ice mass advanced approximately 21 kilometers along the valley. Sources give figures ranging from 1,300 to 1,700 for the loss of life; there is no exact number on the exact number." "There is no consensus, but the scale of the disaster is indisputable. The village of Ahura, which was destroyed after the disaster and has a deep-rooted history dating back to the 8th century, was re-established in a short time and continues to exist today under the name of Yenidoğan village. As an ethnographic research published in the past months shows, the story of this ancient village, where Noah and his children are believed to have spread to the world, is not only a part of a geological event, but also a part of the cultural memory of the people living in these lands, intertwined with the disaster," he said.

REPEATED WARNINGS

Noting that Ahura Valley has not remained silent since 1840, Kaya said:

"In June 2021, a glacier-induced mud-landslide flow occurred in the same valley. Such sudden glacier-melting-induced flows have turned into a recurring pattern in this valley or other valleys surrounding Mount Ararat, especially in the summer months. More recently, as reflected in the press on July 30, 2026, we once again witnessed that the glacier melting on Mount Ararat caused muddy floods and floods in the region. These are: "Small, local events next to 1840 or Nepal. But that's exactly why it's important. After the same valley witnessed a major disaster 186 years ago, it still continues to stir from time to time, albeit on a small scale. This is concrete evidence that the balance in that valley has never been fully established, and that the ice mass at the peak still poses a risk that needs to be monitored."

WHERE IS MOUNTAIN AĞRI IN THIS RISK?

Stating that according to their research and current satellite data, the skullcap glacier covering the summit of Mount Ararat is also affected by the same global trend, Kaya said, "Mount Ararat is the highest mountain in our country. It is a mountain with a skullcap glacier with an altitude of 5 thousand 137 meters. This glacier is gradually melting over time. The glacier area, which was approximately 15 square kilometers in the early 1900s, has decreased to approximately 5 square kilometers with satellite measurements today. In the past, the glacier While the troughs and glacier valleys go down to 3 thousand 600 meters, today they have retreated to almost 4 thousand 900 meters. This shows that the glaciers are weakening and melting from time to time and there are such movements, albeit short-term and small-scale, in the form of warnings in 1921 and 1926. There is a silent movement of the glaciers. We need to take precautions. "It is necessary to monitor it with satellites, keep the necessary reports, and therefore, especially in case of danger, villages and settlements in valleys, valley slopes or on stream beds should be evacuated or precautions should be taken accordingly," he said.

GLACIER MONITORING PROGRAM

Stating that a glacial lake explosion on the scale of the Himalayas is not expected in Türkiye, Kaya made the following warnings:

"A glacial lake eruption on the scale of the Himalayas is not expected in Türkiye, but the risk of glacier breaks and rock avalanches increases on a local scale with climate change. Türkiye's high mountains, especially Ağrı, Cilo, Süphan and Kaçkar, need systematic, continuous glacier monitoring programs. Satellite imaging, periodic field studies and, if possible, slope deformation should be monitored. Systematic recording of recurring small events such as the Ahura Valley should be read as an early harbinger of a major disaster. The valleys in the valleys need systematic, continuous glacier monitoring programs. Settlements, especially structures close to stream beds, need to be re-evaluated in the light of this risk. The disaster that Ahura experienced in 1840 is still being repeated on a small scale in the same valley in 2021, and a similar drama is being staged on the Nepal-Tibet border in 2026. The geography between them is thousands of kilometers, the time between them is almost two centuries, but what the mountain and the mountains tell us does not change; it is our duty. "to hear the silence in time"