Climate crisis in the Himalayas: Glaciers are melting rapidly, 2 billion people are in danger of water shortage

The effects of the climate crisis are getting worse in the Himalayas. Prepared by Systemiq in collaboration with the Integrated Mountain Initiative and developed by the International Center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) and G.B. New research, with technical input from the Pant National Institute of Himalayan Environment, warns that the region is approaching a dangerous turning point.

According to the report, Himalayan glaciers are losing mass 65 percent faster than 10 years ago. On the other hand, only 21 of the approximately 40 thousand glaciers in the Himalaya-Karakoram region are monitored in long-term and detailed manner.

Separate studies published by ICIMOD in March 2026 also revealed that ice loss in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region has doubled since 2000.

The retreat of glaciers does not only mean a decrease in ice mass. What remains behind the melting glaciers are ever-growing lakes surrounded by natural barriers formed by rock and ice accumulations.

The collapse of these natural levees can quickly release large amounts of water into valleys, causing devastating “glacial lake floods.”

Rising temperatures are also thawing permafrost in the high mountains. Destabilization of mountain slopes; It increases the risk of chain disasters where landslides, rockfalls, floods and floods trigger each other.

56 GLACIER LAKES IN INDIA ARE “VERY HIGH RISK”

The extent of the danger is also seen in the data from India.

According to the report, although the Himalayan region constitutes approximately 18 percent of India's territory, approximately 35 percent of disasters in the country occur in this region.

In scientific evaluations made in India, approximately 200 glacial lakes were classified as high risk, and 56 of them were determined to be "very high risk".

The Himalayas have experienced examples of the destruction that glacial lakes can cause before.

At least 70 people lost their lives and roads, bridges and hydroelectric power plants were severely damaged in the glacial lake flood that occurred in 2023 in the Indian state of Sikkim.

More than 200 people died in the major flood that hit the Rishiganga and Dhauliganga valleys in Uttarakhand in 2021.

The recent floods and landslides that occurred in Nepal and Tibet have brought the dangers posed by the rapidly changing environment in the Himalayas to the agenda once again.

THE REAL DANGER IS NOT ONLY FLOODS

According to scientists, the threat is not limited to sudden and devastating floods.

The Himalayas are one of the most important natural water systems of South Asia. The ice and snow masses in the region feed major river systems that benefit billions of people.

ICIMOD states that 12 major rivers in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region provide freshwater and ecosystem services for approximately 2 billion people.

One of the most important warnings of experts is about the critical threshold defined as "peak water".

The melting of glaciers initially carries more water to rivers. However, as the ice mass decreases, this resource also shrinks.

According to ICIMOD, glacier-derived water flow in most of the Hindu Kush Himalayan basins is expected to reach its highest level by mid-century. After this stage, it is estimated that as the glaciers shrink, the amount of water feeding the rivers will decrease.

Therefore, while today's rapid melting increases the risk of floods in the short term, it may turn into a serious water scarcity problem in the long term.

HIMALAYA WATER IS CRITICAL FOR THE INDIAN ECONOMY

The new research also revealed a remarkable calculation of the economic importance of the Himalayas.

According to the report, Himalayan-sourced water supports approximately 20 percent of India's economy. These water resources are vital for many sectors, from wheat and rice production to tea, hydroelectric power plants, tourism and religious visits.

In contrast, the mountainous provinces are estimated to capture only about 5 percent of the economic value created.

Economist Lord Nicholas Stern, Director of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and Environment at the London School of Economics, drew attention to the global importance of the Himalayas.

Stern described the region as the "Third Pole" due to its huge ice reserves and emphasized that, unlike the North and South poles, hundreds of millions of people live right under this ice system.

Considering the Himalayan ecosystem as a "national and international infrastructure", Stern warned that the ecological structure that sustains the system is approaching a critical threshold.

“BLACK CARBON” EFFECT ON ONE THIRD OF GLACIER MELT

One of the striking findings in the report was the role of air pollution in glacier melting.

Nearly a third of glacier melt in the Himalayas is linked to soot particles known as “black carbon,” according to the study.

Especially the soot emitted from brick kilns in the plains settles on the surface of snow and ice, causing more sunlight to be absorbed. This accelerates the melting of glaciers.

Researchers point out that, unlike global greenhouse gas emissions, black carbon emissions are one of the areas where India and neighboring countries can directly intervene.

In the research, 10 priority transformation areas were determined to reduce risks in the Himalayas.

These include reducing black carbon emissions, expanding the glacier monitoring network, strengthening early warning systems against disasters and changing the tourism model in mountainous regions.

Experts state that governments should create common protocols on how to prepare evacuation plans and protect critical infrastructure before danger occurs.

400 MILLION TOURIST VISITS A YEAR

According to the report, India's Himalayan region receives approximately 400 million tourist visits annually.

Researchers argue that tourism policy in mountainous regions should be transformed into a model that will reduce the damage to nature and ensure that the economic value obtained remains in the region, rather than reaching the highest possible number of visitors.

ICIMOD Director General Pema Gyamtsho also stated that the risks in the Himalayas are becoming increasingly complex.

Pointing out that glaciers are retreating, permafrost is starting to thaw and high mountain slopes are becoming increasingly unstable, Gyamtsho said that the settlements and infrastructure in the lower basins are faced with disasters that trigger each other.

According to Gyamtsho, it is not possible to stop the dangers in the Himalayas within national borders.

Experts therefore emphasize the need to establish joint glacier monitoring networks between countries, share risk information, connect early warning systems and make joint investments for disaster resilience.