BlackRock iShares held the "Level up ETF International Forum: Global Vision to Navigate the Future" today.
[Reporter Wu Xintian/Taipei Report] BlackRock iShares held the "Level up ETF International Forum: Global Vision to Lead the Future" during "Taiwan Week" this time. Bei Haochen, Asia-Pacific head of global fundamental equity strategy at BlackRock, pointed out that the capital expenditure boom driven by AI and infrastructure is forming a structural gap with the long-term restricted mineral supply. Commodities are expected to usher in a new super cycle, and gold will play a more critical role in diversifying risks.
Bei Haochen said that the capital expenditures of the top five ultra-large-scale cloud players by market value are expected to jump from approximately US$380 billion in 2025 to nearly US$780 billion in 2026. During the same period, global mining capital expenditures were only approximately US$59 billion. Seeing the AI base, The rate of investment in infrastructure construction is much faster than the growth of mining supply. AI data centers require copper from cabinets, fields to power grids, with the amount of copper used per GW reaching approximately 35 tons. The copper intensity of low-carbon energy is also higher than that of fossil fuels. Offshore wind power requires approximately 6 tons of copper per MW.
On the supply side, Bei Haochen pointed out that it takes an average of 17 years for a mine to be developed and put into production, which is three times as long as it was 30 years ago. According to statistics, only 25% of copper mine projects planned in 2015 have been developed so far; and by the end of 2025, copper supply interruptions have accounted for about 7% of global supply. In 2026, copper mine output is more likely to decline for the first time since 2017. The aluminum market is also tight, with China's production approaching its capacity limit of 45 million tons, and about 9% of global supply in the Middle East also at risk, with shortages expected to expand year by year.
Governments around the world have increased investment in order to reduce their dependence on China's key minerals. In recent years, the U.S. government has regarded critical minerals as the core of national security, and has invested tens of billions of dollars through multiple government departments to build strategic reserves and accelerate local mining and refining.
Bei Haochen reminded that the evaluation and concentration of U.S. stocks are now relatively high. The weight of the top 10 constituent stocks of the MSCI Global Index has risen to about 41%, and the diversification effect of the traditional 60:40 investment portfolio has been significantly weakened in the past five years. It is optimistic that central bank gold purchase demand will remain at a high level of more than 1,000 tons for many consecutive years starting from 2022. The proportion of gold in global central bank reserves has also continued to rise, becoming an important support for gold prices.
Bei Haochen believes that gold stocks have a leverage effect on gold prices. The free cash flow of gold miners has increased significantly with the rise in gold prices. At the same time, capital discipline has been maintained, and the net debt/EBITDA ratio has dropped to the net cash level. Although gold and commodities will fluctuate in the short term due to expectations of interest rate increases, in an environment where AI, geopolitics and debt pressure are intertwined, commodities and gold are worthy of investors' long-term allocation.
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