“AI investment depends on whether it is a box office hit or not”… 'Countdown' keen on Antropic IPO

With the U.S. Democratic Party's landslide victory in the midterm elections, artificial intelligence (AI)-related stocks underwent a sharp adjustment, and Antropic's Nasdaq initial public offering (IPO) plan also appears to have had a shock.

According to the financial investment industry on the 11th, Antropic presented its desired public offering price range as $70 to $78 per share in the revised securities report (S-1/A-2) submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) last night.

The size of new shares issued is 801.35 million shares, and the total number of issued shares after listing will be 13.08667 billion shares. After listing, the market capitalization is expected to be $968.4 billion based on the median public offering price ($74).

Kim Seok-hwan, a researcher at Mirae Asset Securities, said, "By adding up sales of new shares from the IPO public offering ($58.6 billion) and private equity investments ($26 billion), the net cash inflow that Antropic will have after deducting all costs is expected to be about $84.6 billion."

In addition, Researcher Kim predicted that if the underwriter's over-allotment option (green shoe, 123.75 million shares) is exercised, Antropic's cash inflow could increase to $93.7 billion.

Researcher Kim predicted, “Considering that the existing cash holdings and short-term investment assets are worth $131.8 billion, the total amount of cash equivalents, reflecting the inflow of net financing and payment of restricted transfer stock (RSU) taxes, will increase to $212.68 billion (after listing).”

This is a lower performance than expected.

Initially, it was expected that it would raise $100 billion through public offering alone, significantly surpassing the record for the largest ever IPO ($75 billion) set by Space

Researcher Kim pointed out, “It was expected that up to $100 billion in funding would be possible at the end of October (only through public offering proceeds), but the ‘public offering price’ was adjusted to reflect recent market conditions, resulting in a decrease of approximately 30-40% compared to expectations.”

In the aftermath of the realization of the 'blue tsunami', in which the US Democratic Party regained the majority in both the Senate and House of Representatives in the midterm election held on the 3rd local time, US technology stocks have recently shown strong fluctuations.

Triggered by concerns that AI data center construction regulations will be strengthened under the leadership of the Democratic Party, global hedge funds that had excessively increased their proportions of AI and semiconductor stocks have begun large-scale rebalancing (readjustment of asset proportions).

Accordingly, the Nasdaq composite index plunged 5.52% on the 5th of this month alone, and the fear that investment in AI infrastructure, which has supported U.S. economic growth even amid the Iran war, may stop, spread to traditional industries such as economically sensitive industries and the financial industry, causing indiscriminate selling.

Although some of the decline was recovered after criticism that it was an overreaction, investors' anxiety about the 'AI theme' was not completely resolved, and as a result, it even affected Antropic's listing.

However, the general opinion of experts is that it is difficult to say that the growth trend of the AI ​​industry has slowed.

Antropic's estimated average annual sales growth rate (CAGR) from 2026 to 2030 released by Goldman Sachs, the representative manager, amounts to 90.39%.

Researcher Kim pointed out, "The CAGR estimate for Open AI, which was the trigger for the AI ​​profitability issue in the fourth quarter of last year, by 2030 was 72.7%. This was also overwhelmingly higher than that of other megatech companies, and Antropic predicted that it would show a higher sales growth rate than that."

Antropic's public offering price will be confirmed on the 18th, and trading will begin on the NASDAQ under the stock code 'ANT' on the 19th. Researcher Kim said, “Whether Antropic IPO is a success or not is expected to be an important event for short-term AI investment sentiment.”

The atmosphere so far doesn't seem to be bad.

Kim Il-hyuk, a researcher at KB Securities, said, “The corporate value based on full dilution is about $1.4 trillion, which is higher than the $965 billion corporate value at the time of investment attraction in May and lower than investor expectations of $1.5 trillion a week ago.”

He said, “It is higher than the $1.1 trillion to $1.2 trillion that the market was concerned about,” and added, “Because public offering demand is solid, some investors are said to be selling the amount scheduled for allocation in advance by adding a 3 to 5 percent commission to the public offering price.”

Foreign media such as the Financial Times (FT), citing internal sources, reported that there is a prediction that the underwriters will raise the public offering price beyond the $70 to $78 range as demand surges.

Ahead of a large-scale IPO, it is common for the stock price of the leading stock to weaken for a month or two in advance due to the demand for securing ammunition (cash) before subscription, so Antropic's listing may also have an impact on large domestic semiconductor stocks.

However, the securities market believes that supply and demand uncertainties will quickly ease after the IPO is completed.

Kim Du-eon, a researcher at Hana Securities, said, “Large-scale public offerings will also put a strain on the supply and demand of existing AI and semiconductor stocks,” but also expected, “After initial volatility, verification of the profitability of enterprise AI will highlight new leading stocks.”

In particular, "In Korea, Samsung SDS, which sells, builds, and operates Clod, can be selected (as a beneficiary candidate). LG CNS can join hands with Antropic to see whether it goes beyond group-level AX (AI conversion) and converts to paid contracts for external corporate customers, and SK Telecom, which has made an equity investment, can also look at the expansion of external sales of communication AI and customer centers." Hancom, Younglimwon Soft Lab, and AhnLab can also be seen as beneficiaries. He added that there is.