Berlin. Everything is pointing towards Ilse Aigner as the next Federal President, but the CSU politician's official nomination for the highest state office is still pending. The CDU's leadership bodies are due to make their decision on Monday, and the presidium will meet for a preliminary meeting this evening. It is expected that Chancellor and CDU leader Friedrich Merz will officially propose Aigner as the Union's joint candidate for the election in the Federal Assembly on January 30th at this meeting.
CSU boss Markus Söder had already brought the 61-year-old into play as a candidate in April. This week, the CDU leadership also reached an informal agreement on it, according to several high-ranking sources from the Union. But she also has the support of the SPD. Since the Union and SPD have a majority of around 50 votes in the Federal Assembly, it is likely that Aigner will become the first woman to head the state after twelve men in 77 years of the Federal Republic.
For the 61-year-old, being elected Federal President would be the crowning achievement of a long political career. Aigner was a member of the Bundestag and state parliament, a federal and state minister for many years and has been President of the Bavarian state parliament since 2018. These are all career moves that she wasn't born with and that she didn't work towards with a lust for power and elbows like many others. If you like, many of the offices came to Aigner. Unpretentious and approachable, balancing and communicative - that's how she made it to the top.
She would assume the highest office of state at a time when it is perhaps more important than ever. The task of the non-partisan head of state is to bring people together and to stabilize them in crisis situations - for example when a government breaks up or a precarious majority situation arises in the Bundestag.
If the CDU nominates Aigner on Monday, many will say: But we could have done that earlier? CSU boss Söder had already brought her into play as a candidate in April. Merz had refrained from taking a position on this, pointing out that the coalition had agreed on a decision after the state elections in September.
But even after that, the Chancellor hesitated, and in October he quietly endured the fact that the CSU nominated Aigner as its candidate at its party conference with a storm of cheers. Many people - including some from his own party - now see him as a driven man who has lost control of the candidate search. Others see the problem with Söder, who put Merz under pressure by rushing ahead in public instead of amicably clarifying the P question in complete confidentiality.
There would have been alternatives to Aigner from the CDU. Bundestag President Julia Klöckner, Education Minister Karin Prien, former party leader Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen were in discussion. Most recently, the largely unknown Hessian faction leader Ines Claus was brought into play. In contrast to the CSU, the CDU was unable to rally behind a CDU woman - or a man - in time.
For the CDU women, who were considered possible candidates for months, it is not pleasant to come away empty-handed. But it won't hurt your careers. Quite the opposite: after all, they were generally expected to hold office in the public debate.
Aigner would not only be the first woman at the head of state, but also the first CSU politician. In this respect, there is reason for your party to celebrate, even if it will no longer be a driving force for votes in its homeland of Upper Bavaria in the next state election in 2028.
For party leader Söder himself, Aigner's rise would mean two things. On the one hand, he would also lose a personal competitor at home in Bavaria. After all, Aigner was always considered a possible successor during Söder's weak phases, most recently after the Bavarian local elections in the spring. And even though it was never dangerous for Söder, precisely because Aigner is not a revolutionary, many suspected the party leader of having certain ulterior motives when he brought Aigner into conversation shortly after the local elections in question.
On the other hand, another chance for Söder to run for chancellor seems to be even further away than it already was. Because it is virtually impossible that the CSU would get two of the highest state offices.
There is a lot to fix in the relationship between the two Union party leaders after the P question has been clarified. Trust has been lost on both sides. On the CDU side because of Söder's perceived rush there without regard to losses. And on the CSU side because of the agonizingly long search process.
But Aigner is a good solution for the coalition as a whole. The SPD had shown sympathy for her early on and had recently aligned herself with her. If Merz had switched to a CDU candidate in the last few meters, the risk of a coalition collapse would have been great.
