The 2005 San Diego Padres can pop champagne. They no longer hold the distinction of being MLB's worst-ever division winner in a full season. The Houston Astros (ATH 6, HOU 5) and Texas Rangers (MIN 10, TEX 2) both lost Friday night and fell to 79-81. This year's AL West winner will have a worse record than those 2005 Padres, who won the NL West with an 82-80 record.
"Two games left," Rangers manager Skip Schumaker said on Friday (via MLB.com). "We'll obviously be scoreboard watching tonight. It's part of the game and part of where we're at in the season. The important thing is to come back tomorrow and do whatever we can to fight and to try to win that game tomorrow. That's the most important game. Tough one today, no doubt about it. But we have to figure out a way to keep going, stay positive and win tomorrow."
AL WEST STANDINGS
1. Houston Astros: 79-81
2. Texas Rangers: 79-81
3. Seattle Mariners: 74-86 (eliminated)
Jacob deGrom, whom the Rangers gave a five-year contract worth $185 million precisely to win games like Friday, gave up eight runs and failed to complete five innings against the Minnesota Twins. To add injury to insult, third baseman Josh Jung was hit by a pitch in the top of the first inning and suffered a broken right hand. He's done for at least this final weekend, and maybe longer.
"(Jung) is out, that's pretty significant," Schumaker said (via MLB.com). "Him and Joc (Pederson) both with hand fractures or wrist fractures, it's not ideal at this time of the year. But we've still got to go. We have two games left, and we've got to figure this thing out."
The Astros, meanwhile, are stretched to the absolute limit of their pitching depth. Ace Hunter Brown and relievers Bennett Sousa and A.J. Blubaugh combined to allow six runs in the sixth inning against the 96-loss Athletics on Friday. The inning unraveled after Jose Altuve dropped the throw on a would-be 6-4-3 double play. Zero outs were recorded, and the A's took advantage.
"I think we control our future right now and if we win these next two games, we're in," Altuve said (via MLB.com). "We've just got to focus on what we do in this clubhouse. We've got the players to do it. Our focus is going to be 100% on our game and we've got to go out there and win it."
A well-played and tightly contested division race this is not. The Rangers are 11-11 in September. The Astros are 9-13. At best, the AL West winner will go 81-81, and there's a very real chance the division winner goes 80-82. There is no wild-card spot to fall back on either. Either the Astros or Rangers will win the AL West, and the other team will go home.
Here is what you need to know about the AL West race heading into the regular season's final two days.
Tiebreaker status
The Astros have the advantage here. They won the season series against the Rangers handily (9-4 with a +23 run differential) and thus hold the tiebreaker over Texas. The Astros only need to finish with the same record as the Rangers. The Rangers must pass the Astros this weekend to win the AL West. There is no path to Texas winning the division with at least one Astros loss.
Possible outcomes
Even after losing 12 times in their last 18 games, the Astros control their own destiny and can clinch the AL West as early as Saturday night. A win over the A's and a Rangers loss to the Twins would do it. As a baseball fan, I hope it comes down to Sunday. A win-or-go-home scenario in Game 162 would be a blast, even if the AL West is a pillow fight more than a heavyweight bout.
Here are the possible outcomes for this weekend. The Astros need two outcomes (wins or Rangers losses) to go their way to win the AL West. The Rangers need three outcomes (wins or Astros losses) to go their way to steal away the division.
Astros Rangers Result
2 wins 2 wins Astros win ALW, Rangers out
2 wins 1 win Astros win ALW, Rangers out
2 wins 0 wins Astros win ALW, Rangers out
1 win 2 wins Rangers win ALW, Astros out
1 win 1 win Astros win ALW, Rangers out
1 win 0 wins Astros win ALW, Rangers out
0 wins 2 wins Rangers win ALW, Astros out
0 wins 1 win Rangers win ALW, Astros out
0 wins 0 wins Astros win ALW, Rangers out
Nine possible outcomes this weekend and six favor the Astros. Take care of business in West Sacramento and beat the A's twice, and the Astros are division champs. The Athletics have already helped the Rangers plenty this season. The A's are 6-5 against the Astros. Texas needs a little more help though. They need the Athletics to beat Houston one more time to have a chance.
The weekend ahead
SATURDAY
Rangers at Twins: 4:10 p.m. ET (RHP Nathan Eovaldi vs. RHP Bailey Ober)
Astros at Athletics: 9:40 p.m. ET (RHP Hayden Wesneski vs. RHP Jack Perkins)
SUNDAY
Astros at Athletics: 3:05 p.m. ET (TBA vs. TBA)
Rangers at Twins: 3:10 p.m. ET (TBA vs. RHP Dean Kremer)
The staggered start times mean the Astros will take the field Saturday night already aware of whether they can clinch the AL West with a win or if they need to win to keep pace with the Rangers. Eovaldi returned from an elbow issue two weeks ago and had been working out of the bullpen. He topped out at four innings and 46 pitches, so he figures to have some kind of pitch limit on Saturday.
The Rangers currently have TBA listed as Sunday's starter, though lefty MacKenzie Gore lines up to pitch. Texas cannot clinch the division on Saturday. If they need to win Sunday to win the AL West, I assume Gore will start. If the Astros clinch the division Saturday, the Rangers could shut Gore down, given his career-high 170 ⅔ innings, and cobble together nine innings in a meaningless game some other way.
Cristian Javier hit the injured list with a groin strain earlier this week and the Astros don't have a starter for Sunday. It could be Ronel Blanco, who hasn't appeared in a game since Sept. 13. Blanco may be needed Saturday night, however. The Astros may be forced to run a bullpen game Sunday, which makes winning Saturday all the more imperative.
Worst MLB divisions
This year's AL West winner will finish no better than 81-81, passing the 82-80 2005 Padres and becoming the worst division winner in a full season in baseball history. Here are baseball's worst division winners in a full season:
1. 2026 AL West: 81-81 at best
2. 2005 San Diego Padres: 82-80 (NL West)
3. 1973 New York Mets: 82-79 (NL East)
4. 2006 St. Louis Cardinals: 83-78 (NL Central)
5. Several teams at 84-78
Hey, those 83-win Cardinals won the World Series in 2006. Find a way into the tournament and you can win a title.
Anyway, the "full season" qualifier for this year's AL West winner is important, because no division will ever match the futility of the 1994 AL West. The Rangers were atop the division with a 52-62 record (!) when the players went on strike, effectively ending the season on Aug. 12. The four-team division went a combined 199-256. That's an entire division playing at a 91-loss pace. Yeesh. The 2026 AL West is pretty bad, but it's nowhere close to 1994 AL West bad.
