When the AP Top 25 poll was released for the first time in the 2026 season, the preseason rankings were notable for how low the voters ranked Alabama coming into the season. The Crimson Tide checked in at No. 11 back in August, which was the lowest preseason AP poll appearance for the program since 2008. Now with five weeks of regular-season football in the books, the narrative has flipped, with Alabama now looking very much the part of a national title contender. Kalen DeBoer will always be judged by how his program performs compared to his predecessor, and that preseason ranking (which was not only low at No. 11 but behind multiple conference rivals) was not the kind of status associated with the Crimson Tide.
Well, after another offensive onslaught, this time against a tough Mississippi State team on the road in front of the cowbells, Alabama is poised to continue its climb through the rankings, and we are projecting the win vaults the Tide into the top five. That's not unusual territory for DeBoer's Alabama teams, which, for example, peaked at No. 4 last season, but it does represent a change in attitudes for whether this group is closer to the top or middle of the SEC pecking order. With a highly anticipated showdown against Georgia on deck, Alabama will have a chance to truly make its argument on the field as the best team in the country in Week 6.
Speaking of changing attitudes, Missouri was not even ranked by more than half of the AP Top 25 poll voters last week after a loss to Mississippi State. But after a blowout win against top-10 Florida, the Tigers are sure to be getting more respect from the voters and surging in the rankings. They have a complicated resume with a loss to Mississippi State and a win against a Florida team that just beat Ole Miss, so look for those head-to-head edges to get washed out in the minds of some voters. The SEC's overpopulating the AP poll was a popular storyline with a target pointed at the likes of Missouri and Kentucky, but both teams just logged wins in Week 5 and will be tough to displace from the rankings.
Here's how we think the new AP Top 25 poll will look on Sunday after the scores and results of Week 5 in college football:
1. Texas (Last week — 1): The Longhorns were off in Week 5 and will be back in action against rival Oklahoma next Saturday.
2. Georgia (2): Though their ranking is not expected to change, the anticipation for next week's meeting with Alabama was only heightened after another dominant defensive performance in a 38-14 win against Vanderbilt. The Bulldogs are allowing just 14.7 points per game in SEC play through three games after bottling up Blaze Berlowitz, but the challenge changes when staring down Keelon Russell and the Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa next weekend.
3. Notre Dame (3): Rainy conditions in Chapel Hill forced the Fighting Irish to lean on their ground game in the second half, and the results were a continuation of the encouraging signs we've seen from the offense in recent weeks. Notre Dame rolled up a season-high 241 rushing yards on 45 attempts (5.4 per rush) while holding North Carolina to just 77 net rushing yards on the ground. This is the fifth straight game that Notre Dame has run for more yards than it did in the week prior, and suddenly the loss of two first-round running backs seems like less of an issue.
4. Miami (4): The Hurricanes defense arrived in Death Valley with numerous injuries, but the depth of that group was on full display in a convincing win against Clemson. Miami likely did not do much to close the gap on No. 1 with the win but played well enough to avoid getting jumped by Alabama's rise.
5. Alabama (7): Saturday's early slate had Alabama in the spotlight in a tricky road spot at Mississippi State, which entered the weekend at No. 16. What voters tuned in and found was yet another runaway win for the Crimson Tide, who have put up 45+ points in every game and are beating opponents by 28.8 points per game. This is a team that's building a case for No. 1 consideration, and that debate will be the backdrop for next week's showdown with Georgia.
6. Ohio State (5): It's unlikely that Ohio State will have too many complaints about getting in and out of Iowa City without too much of an upset scare, but the 31-17 win against the Hawkeyes might not carry as much juice as Alabama's high-scoring win in Starkville. Ultimately, our projection is that the tiebreaker is the loss column, and the Tide's undefeated record gives them a slight edge for that last spot in the top five.
7. Indiana (6): The Hoosiers methodically picked Rutgers apart and cruised to a 47-15 win. We don't expect voters to be overwhelmed by the result, even if it came dominantly while dealing with injuries. The only real adjustment is a re-shuffling in response to Alabama's jump up.
8. BYU (10): It was not always pretty, but BYU's run game finally found some rhythm in the second half of a hard-fought 17-10 win at TCU. The Cougars were just 12 voting points away from jumping ahead of Ole Miss last week and could be a beneficiary of bumping up as voters adjust for Florida's loss.
9. Ole Miss (9): The Rebels were off in Week 5 and will be back in action next week at Vanderbilt. Their profile took a hit with Florida's loss at Missouri, but the head-to-head win against LSU could prevent any major changes.
10. LSU (11): We are not projecting much of a rankings impact from LSU's lopsided win against in-state FCS foe McNeese.
11. Utah (13): The Utes were off in Week 5 and will be back in action next week against Kansas at home.
12. Oregon (15): The Ducks were off in Week 5 and will be back in action next week against UCLA.
13. Florida (8): While it will be difficult for Florida fans to justify a drop below the Ole Miss team that the Gators just beat, we are projecting that voters will use the Oregon-Mississippi State-Tennessee range as the floor for a move down. The strength of the Ole Miss win still carries plenty of weight, but the poor performance at Missouri and a common opponent with Tennessee (close win against Auburn) point to a shared tier in that range of the SEC.
14. Mississippi State (16): It does seem confusing that a team could give up 56 points at home and not move in the rankings, but the strength of Mississippi State's resume and the growing respect for Alabama could leave voters keeping the Bulldogs in this range on their ballots. With head-to-head wins against Missouri and Minnesota, this is a team that has already logged multiple quality power conference victories, and the loss to the Bulldogs included myriad injury issues, the most notable of which was star quarterback Kamario Taylor.
15. Missouri (25): A total of 39 voters did not even have Missouri on their ballots last week, so it's fair to assume that after beating Florida, we are going to see quite the jump in the rankings. Not only are those voters who had Missouri unranked likely to change their tune, but the boldest Tigers backers (voters who had Missouri already inside the top 20) will only be further entrenched in their view of this being one of the top teams in the country. Last week's head-to-head loss to Mississippi State makes for an easy pairing on a ballot, so while the rankings may be varied across all the voters, we are projecting a consensus landing spot in the mid-teens.
16. Texas Tech (12): It is not common for teams to drop spots after a conference win, but Texas Tech's profile might not hold up as voters are making moves in this range of the ballot after surviving an upset bid at Colorado on Saturday night. The Red Raiders offense has not looked dominant against the best competition, and outside of the 28-26 win against Houston, there aren't a lot of results-based metrics to back up a high ranking.
17. Tennessee (17): While freshman quarterback Faizon Brandon was benched in Saturday's win against Auburn, running back Desean Bishop was there to carry the load with a career day, rolling up 220 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 34 carries. The week ahead will bring questions about the outlook for Josh Huepel's quarterback room, but voters will take the bounce-back win as a good sign after last week's loss to Texas.
18. USC (18): The Trojans were on the verge of backing up an Oregon loss with another defeat to a West Coast foe, but this time it was the USC defense that came up with winning plays late to hold off Washington in a 25-21 win. Up next is a trip to Penn State, hoping to keep that top 25 status intact after an upset scare.
19. Oklahoma State (19): The Cowboys were off in Week 5 and will be back in action next week against UCF.
20. Houston (20): The Coogs' position as a top-25 team won't be shaken by a 10-point win against UCF, but this was not the sharpest showing for Willie Fritz's group. Houston lost a fumble and had two turnovers on downs during a scoreless first half before Conner Weigman and the offense found its rhythm and outscored UCF by 27 after halftime.
21. SMU (21): From a rankings perspective, the argument for SMU's place in the top 25 picture is leading with a road win against Florida State. Preseason expectations and some productive performances early for Kevin Jennings put the Mustangs in consideration for spots on the ballot, but now that resume is getting scrutinized as others stack up quality wins. That could lead to SMU getting "jumped" by other teams who might have had more complete performances than the Mustangs' nine-point win at home against Boston College.
22. Boise State (22): The Broncos have a solid spot inside the top 25, but seem unlikely for any big moves after a win against Utah State.
23. UCLA (23): The Bruins were off in Week 5 and now turn their attention to challenging Oregon in Eugene next Saturday.
24. Wisconsin (NR): A road win at Penn State got the Badgers to 26th in voting points last week, just a handful of ballots away from really pressing for an entry into the top 25. The Badgers have not been ranked in the AP Top 25 poll since Week 2 of the 2023 season, but after backing up the Penn State upset with a defensive domination of Michigan State this group is ready to return to the rankings.
25. Pittsburgh (NR): Coach Pat Narduzzi looked right into the camera and into the souls of the AP voters, demanding that his 5-0 Panthers be ranked after taking down Virginia Tech on the road with a backup quarterback. And while the big-picture outlook looks different without Mason Heintschel (torn ACL in the third quarter), the body of work so far is worthy of jumping ahead in the pecking order after the hard-fought road win.
