Alexandre de Moraes faces pressure to resign or be arrested after messages with banker were revealed

The new plot twist of national politics this time was especially shocking.

Will Alexandre de Moraes, Xandão, the powerful and feared Supreme Court minister, be forced to leave the court? And even more so, can he be arrested?

Just the fact that these hypotheses are being seriously discussed shows the size of the earthquake that the Brazilian Judiciary is experiencing. And it is not just a justice crisis, but a turmoil that influences politics in general and, of course, elections.

For those who arrived from Mars, a quick summary: on Tuesday, minister André Mendonça released the full text of messages obtained from banker Daniel Vorcaro's cell phones, containing conversations between him and Alexandre.

There are many serious things, but perhaps the main one is Vorcaro asking the minister for some kind of advice on whether or not to flee the country. It was also clear that Alexandre participated in the negotiation of a million-dollar contract between his wife, who is a lawyer, and the banker.

The minister, therefore, had his exemption questioned and came under pressure to resign from his position in the STF. For now, he dismisses this possibility and pretends it's not up to him.

Despite the seriousness of the facts revealed, the eventual fall of the powerful Xandão is still uncertain, for a series of reasons.

The first is the esprit de corps of the STF, always reluctant to hand over the head of any of its members. Even opening an investigation against him is not guaranteed, as it depends on approval by the court's plenary.

Another path would be impeachment in the Senate, but there are not enough numbers for that yet. More importantly, the president of the House, Davi Alcolumbre, has already made it clear that he will not proceed with any of the new requests that arrived there after this episode.

And there is still discreet work by the Lula government to protect Alexandre, who is seen as an ally against Bolsonarism.

The problem for the minister is that if his neck appears to be safe now, there is a good chance the tide will soon turn. Especially if Flávio Bolsonaro is elected president and the right-wing bench increases in the Senate, as many predict.

A weakened Alexander may not be able to withstand a joint offensive by the government and Congress in a few months.

Even if he holds on to his position, it is increasingly clear that the former powerful Xandão is today a shadow of what he once was.