On the front of the Union parties (CDU/CSU), which constitute the major wing of the government, the calculations follow a much more complex course. The Bavarian partner of the alliance, the Christian Social Union (CSU), made its move early.
CSU Chairman Markus Söder is running an intense campaign for the joint candidacy of Ilse Aigner, Speaker of the Bavarian State Parliament.
Sixty-one-year-old Aigner, a former Federal Minister of Agriculture, has stood out as the strongest name in the race for months.
According to Tagesschau, Söder, in the "Bericht aus Berlin" program on ARD television, reminded that no CSU member had been able to become prime minister or president for seventy-five years, and argued that now it was their turn.
However, Söder's move raises serious questions in political circles. According to Der Spiegel's analysis, observers who know that the Bavarian Prime Minister has not given up on his dream of becoming a federal prime minister point to a different account.
If a CSU member settles in the Bellevue Palace, it seems almost impossible for a party that gives one of the two seats at the top of the state to Bavaria to also take the prime ministership.
For this reason, some CDU staff think that Söder deliberately put Aigner forward early and wanted to waste his chance.
According to the impressions conveyed by Der Spiegel, Aigner made a quiet show of strength by attending the last CSU congress wearing a black t-shirt, red jacket and gold necklace, that is, in the colors of the German flag.
However, Prime Minister Merz's cautious attitude at the congress showed that the issue was not resolved yet.
On the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) side, Prime Minister Friedrich Merz has so far refrained from making a firm commitment.
In his statement last year, he said that he could envision a woman being elected president in 2027 and that it would be good.
However, staff in his party argue that this statement does not mean an absolute necessity.
State prime ministers from the CDU, whose influence has increased after the state elections, demand a say in the determination of the presidential candidate and resist leaving the office directly to the CSU.
Voices openly questioning the necessity of a female president are increasing within the party.
Chairman of the Union Parliamentary Group, Thorsten Frei, said in his statement to Welt television that the doors should not be closed to a man in advance and that the process should be approached with an open mind.
CDU General Treasurer and Group Deputy Chairman Mathias Middelberg criticized the gender debate in his statement to Der Spiegel.
Middelberg stated that the candidate must have real political weight and authority rather than being male or female.
CDU Central Decision Executive Board Member Wiebke Winter, speaking to Deutschlandfunk radio, acknowledged that the time was right for a female candidate; However, he emphasized that the candidate's competency profile comes before everything else.
Christian Democrats list a long list of expectations in order to block Aigner's path. The first of these conditions is legal education; Aigner does not have this formation.
Also sought is the ability to integrate the Eastern and Western states; It is claimed that a strong Bavarian identity cannot provide this unifying mortar.
Names such as Federal Family Minister Karin Prien, Federal Parliament Speaker Julia Klöckner, former leader Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer and Hessen State Parliament Speaker Ines Claus are being talked about as female candidates within the CDU; Writer and lawyer Juli Zeh is also mentioned among the options.
However, when the criterion bar is raised this much, it is argued that the pool of female candidates narrows and the door opens for male candidates.
As a matter of fact, former Constitutional Court Judge Udo di Fabio and current Constitutional Court President Stephan Harbarth are among the names mentioned behind the scenes.
When the name of Hessian Prime Minister Boris Rhein leaked to the public did not cause any reaction, the view that "the expectation of a female president is not as harsh an obligation as it is thought" gained ground within the Union.
Even though Rhein informed Merz that she would not take part in the race, this discussion kept the possibility of a male candidate alive.
The SPD's own candidate, one of the ruling partners, is not in the race, but there is a clear sympathy for Aigner among the party staff.
SPD Group Chairman Matthias Miersch described Aigner as a democrat who takes a clear stand against the extreme right and defends democratic values without compromise; praised his credibility in coalition negotiations.
Bremen Mayor Andreas Bovenschulte also publicly backed Aigner.
Different suggestions are voiced by the opposition and civil society wings. According to Die Zeit, Left Party (Die Linke) Bundestag Administrative Manager Ina Latendorf announced that they could support a name that comes from civil society and is accepted beyond the parties.
The petition opened for comedian and writer Hape Kerkeling and collected more than 160 thousand signatures brought the idea of electing a gay candidate to the agenda; Speaking to Spiegel, Kerkeling stated that although he knew that the outcome would not be successful, this discussion was beneficial in a free society.
The Federal Electoral College, which will elect the President, consists of a total of 1,260 members, 630 of whom are deputies of the Federal Assembly and 630 of whom are delegates elected by the state parliaments.
The states included not only politicians in the delegation; It can also include artists, athletes and scientists.
The candidate who gets the absolute majority of at least 631 delegates in the first two rounds of the election wins; If it goes to the third round, a simple majority is considered sufficient.
The largest group in the board is CDU/CSU, followed by AfD and the Greens. The total number of seats for the ruling Union parties and the SPD far exceeds the absolute majority.
This picture makes the agreement reached by Prime Minister Merz and his partners decisive. All eyes are now on whether Merz will be able to overcome the pro-male candidate resistance in her own party at the CDU executive meeting on November 9 and whether she will hand over the key to the Bellevue Palace to a woman for the first time in the history of the republic.
