Israel goes to the polls for parliamentary elections on Tuesday for the first time since the Al-Aqsa Flood operation of Palestinian groups in Gaza on October 7, 2023 and the years of war that followed.
This election, which many Israelis view as the most critical vote since the country's founding in 1948 and "a referendum on what kind of country Israel wants to be", could determine whether 77-year-old Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has been in power for nearly 19 years, will remain in power or whether a new leader will take over the country.
However, in the face of a sharply divided electorate, neither Netanyahu, the longest-serving prime minister in the country's history, nor his strongest rival, former Chief of General Staff Gadi Eisenkot, seem to have a clear chance of taking over the government alone.
The election process is so complex that it can take weeks to figure out who will lead the country.
The main competition at the ballot box is between Netanyahu's coalition of right-wing and ultra-Orthodox parties and Eisenkot's more centrally positioned bloc.
The whole world will be watching the election closely due to topics such as the course of the war with Iran, the future of the Gaza Strip and the fate of the Palestinian state. US President Trump announced his support for Netanyahu in the election.
However, on national security issues that have a great impact abroad, the main candidates are playing very close to each other.
Therefore, the fate of the race will be determined by domestic knots rather than foreign policy: Who will be held responsible for the security failure on October 7, whether ultra-Orthodox Israelis will be subject to compulsory military service, and the presence of far-right ministers in the Netanyahu government are the real breaking points of the election.
The most notable name opposing Netanyahu is Gadi Eisenkot, the leader of the centre-line Yaşar Party and the former number one commander of the Israeli army.
Netanyahu himself appointed Eisenkot as chief of general staff in 2014.
Eisenkot also joined Netanyahu in the emergency national unity government formed immediately after the October 7 attack; but he resigned from his post a few months later, claiming that the prime minister was prolonging the war and endangering the hostages held in Gaza.
The war also hit the former commander's own family directly: Eisenkot's youngest son Gal and two of his nephews died in the fighting in Gaza.
Eisenkot, who broke down in tears while speaking at her son's funeral, became a symbol of the sense of loss experienced by many Israelis after October 7 and as the war intensified.
Netanyahu, who is at the center of the election debate, built his campaign on the idea that Israel should remain the dominant military power in the region and be ready to act alone if necessary.
His opponents, on the other hand, paint the opposite picture: According to them, Netanyahu brought extremists into the government, attempted to weaken the judiciary for political gain, unnecessarily prolonged the wars consuming the country, and is himself responsible for the security collapse on October 7. Netanyahu, on the other hand, says that security chiefs did not inform him and argues that he is fighting for Israel.
His rival, Eisenkot, announced that he would launch an independent investigation into October 7. He also promises to hold accountable settler extremists responsible for violence against Palestinians in the West Bank and recruit ultra-Orthodox Israelis.
The Iran issue took a large place in Netanyahu's election campaign.
The prime minister highlighted this threat last week, sharing an image of a nuclear attack on Tel Aviv and saying Israel must complete the job of overthrowing the regime.
Netanyahu faces widespread criticism and war crime charges abroad for fueling the war with Iran and for his handling of the war in Gaza.
According to the Palestinian Ministry of Health, the war in Gaza has destroyed much of the area and killed more than 74 thousand people.
However, these external reactions are not expected to determine the outcome of the ballot box. The majority of Israeli voters have moved to the right since the October 7 attack; A large majority supports a hard-line approach to security issues and opposes a Palestinian state.
As a matter of fact, Eisenkot also adopts a hard line against enemies such as Iran, Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. The difference is that Eisenkot says he is in favor of turning military victories into diplomatic gains.
On the other hand, the former commander also openly states that he supports the expansion of settlements in the West Bank and opposes a Palestinian state.
Voters in Israel do not directly elect their leaders, unlike the presidential system in the United States.
Tuesday's vote in the country governed by parliamentary democracy will determine how the 120 seats in the Israeli parliament, the Knesset, will be distributed among the parties. Instead of individual MPs, seats are distributed according to the votes received by parties, and parties that receive less than 3.25 percent of the votes are excluded from parliament.
So far in Israeli history, no party has ever achieved an absolute majority on its own. Prime minister candidates must bring together a coalition reaching 61 seats to form a government.
Latest polls show that both Netanyahu and Eisenkot are below this threshold.
In the pre-election polls, Eisenkot's Yaşar Party was leading as the party that would win the most seats, followed by Netanyahu's Likud Party; Both parties are expected to win around 20 seats each.
According to the Wall Street Journal newspaper, it is estimated that the possible coalition blocs of the two leaders will remain around 50 seats, that is, they will not reach the majority.
The key to solving the equation is actually in the hands of Arab Israeli parties; However, neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot is willing to form an alliance with these parties, which are expected to win approximately 14 seats and could carry one of the two leaders to the majority.
Both names have already declared that they will not side with Arab parties. However, it is possible for minority governments to be formed if some MPs abstain from the vote of confidence.
On election day, which is declared a public holiday, every Israeli citizen aged 18 and over can vote. Voters must vote within the borders of the country, with a few exceptions for diplomats and soldiers.
