
Fully electric vehicles took 37% of the new vehicle market, beating the 2026 forecast two months early.
AI-generated summary
Germany has launched a new electric vehicle incentive program that is applied retroactively as of January 1. The program provides support of 3,000 euros for a new fully electric vehicle purchased or leased; For low-income households with children, this amount increases to 6,000 euros. Households with taxable income over 80,000 euros (90,000 euros for families with children) cannot benefit from the program. The previous incentive program was removed overnight in December 2023, and there was a sharp decline in full electric sales in 2024.
The German electric vehicle market reached a record level in October. Because, according to data from the Federal Motor Vehicle Administration KBA, fully electric cars took 37% of the new vehicle market. Additionally, the number of registrations was 94,086. A year ago this figure was 52,425, so the increase reached 79.5%.
Moreover, for the second month in a row, German buyers registered more fully electric vehicles than gasoline and diesel vehicles combined. For this reason, while there are two months left in the year, the industry's 2026 forecast has been exceeded.
Gasoline and diesel fell sharply in the German electric vehicle market
The overall market grew by only 1.7% in October, reaching 254,492 vehicles. Therefore, the increase in electric vehicles came directly from the share of combustion engine vehicles.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Bk1ItNTda8
First of all, gasoline vehicle registrations decreased by 40.5% to 38,516 units, accounting for 15.1% of the market. Diesel, on the other hand, decreased by 21.6% to 23,882 units; Moreover, its share was 9.4%. Therefore, the total share of combustion vehicles remained at 24.5%, i.e. 12.5 points behind fully electric ones.
On the other hand, plug-in hybrids decreased by 7.9% to 28,499 units (11.2%). Therefore, plug-in vehicles took approximately 48% of the market. In addition, the average CO2 emissions of new vehicles decreased by 21.1% on an annual basis to 79.4 g/km.
Fully electric vehicles became the most popular engine type for the first time in June, with 28.4%. Then the share was 32.4% in August and 34.5% in September. Finally, it rose to 37% in October.
698,230 fully electric vehicles were registered in the first ten months; This is a 60.7% increase compared to last year. Additionally, the share reached 28.2%. However, in all of 2025, this rate was approximately 19%.
In December, the German automotive industry association VDA predicted around 693,000 all-electric registrations for 2026. However, Germany surpassed this number in October. Moreover, at the current rate, it is expected to reach around 875,000 by the end of the year.
Incentive effect on the increase in electric vehicles in Germany
First of all, the biggest reason for the increase is the new electric vehicle incentive. The incentive is applied retroactively for vehicles registered since January 1. Additionally, 3,000 euros are given for a new fully electric vehicle purchased or rented. However, for low-income households with children, the support goes up to 6,000 euros.
However, households with taxable income over 80,000 euros cannot benefit. On the other hand, for families with children, this limit is 90,000 euros.
The program targets individual buyers, and the data shows that. For example, in October, individual registrations increased by 20.6%, while commercial registrations decreased by 8.2%. Therefore, the share of individual buyers increased to 40.7%.
Moreover, Germany's electric vehicle sales had experienced a similar period before. Because the previous incentive was removed overnight in December 2023. Thus, full electric sales fell sharply in 2024.
Chinese brands are rising, German giants are struggling
First of all, Tesla's German numbers fluctuate wildly depending on the quarterly delivery cycle. For example, in September, the quarter-end, it recorded 12,552 vehicles (+268.7%). Additionally, Model Y became the country's best-selling car. In October, it recorded 2,932; However, despite the 290.9% increase, the market share remained at 1.2%.
However, since the beginning of the year, Tesla has increased by 206.1%, reaching 47,742 registrations. On the other hand, BYD is slightly ahead with 47,961 registrations (+216.1%). Additionally, BYD recorded 5,173 vehicles (+54.3%) in October. However, the majority of its sales in Germany are not fully electric, but plug-in hybrids.
But other Chinese brands are growing faster. Leapmotor, for example, registered 3,661 vehicles in October, up 288.6%, for an annual total of 19,705. Additionally, Xpeng increased by 284.4% to 1,380 units, and SAIC's MG brand increased by 48.5% to 4,140 units.
Additionally, the best-selling electric model by the end of September was Skoda Elroq: 30,845 units. Then came Tesla Model Y (29,464) and VW ID.3 (24,352).
On the other hand, German manufacturers cannot get a share from this boom. For example, in October, registrations of the VW brand decreased by 4%, Audi by 8.4%, Porsche by 5.7% and Opel by 24.1%. In contrast, BMW remained stable (+0.1%), while Mercedes was the exception, with an increase of 8.5%. However, VW is still the largest brand at 18.2%, but it is down 5.6% year-on-year.
Volkswagen Group last week announced an operating loss of 5.9 billion euros in the third quarter. Moreover, this is the biggest quarterly loss since Dieselgate. The group also approved a plan for 100,000 job cuts. On the other hand, Mercedes reduced its 2026 auto margin forecast to 2-3%.
However, there does not seem to be a problem on the product side. For example, VW's new ID. The Polo model sold out with over 30,000 orders. BMW also has more than 50,000 orders for the Neue Klasse iX3.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Full electric vehicle registrations will reach around 875,000 by the end of the year
Likely · Within months
German automakers may further lower 2026 margin forecasts
Possible · Within months

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