Which party leader is under the most pressure? There is a fierce battle for the podium places in that race right now. But the question is whether Magdalena Andersson still deserves the gold medal?
The situation of the Social Democrats is becoming increasingly desperate: not only is their government base falling to pieces. Indicator's measurement from October also shows that confidence in Magdalena Andersson is the lowest measured since she became party leader. This at the same time that Ulf Kristersson for the first time ever has the greatest confidence among voters, after an increase of 10 percentage points in just a few months.
In the same survey, the Social Democrats now attract 27 percent of voters, while the Moderates have grown to 26.3 percent. And this is before the voters have found out whether Magdalena Andersson will form a government or not.
What would these numbers look like after a crash?
Since the election, the S leader has also sent strange signals to the voters: after years of talking about the importance of settling across bloc lines on important issues, she reversed course last weekend. If a bourgeois government is put forward by the Sweden Democrats, she promises "not to participate in any negotiations with such a government constellation". The picture that Magdalena Andersson wanted to paint of an action-oriented and cooperative leader is cracking.
Many on the right quickly concluded that her statement shows that she only wants to cooperate when she herself is prime minister. But the question is whether that thesis will not be disproved quite soon.
Confidence in Magdalena Andersson is the lowest measured since she became party leader.
Because what alternatives do the Social Democrats have in practice? If the Left Party does not agree to cooperate with a government consisting of S, C and MP, only one thing remains, she stated herself at the lightning-called press conference last weekend: a cooperation that includes both social democrats and moderates.
Otherwise, an additional election awaits. And what will she say in such an election campaign? Then she has both failed to bring the greens, reds and liberals together - and in a sharp situation said no to cooperating with the right.
Sweden would get a new Tidö government.
Magdalena Andersson would have to look for a new job.
And if previous sketches of collaborations between S and M were based on the idea that Magdalena Andersson would become prime minister in such a case, the situation has now changed.
It is also noted in social democratic circles: A settlement with the Moderates - in which Ulf Kristersson becomes prime minister - may be the only thing left for Magdalena Andersson, writes Aftonbladet's former and long-time editorial writer, Ingvar Persson, in Arbetet (2/11).
He hopes that V and C will get along, but doubts it. Based on that, he also draws the conclusion that few social democrats have so far wanted to take in their mouths: This may very well end with Kristersson being put forward as prime minister - by social democrats.
But why would the Moderates seize on such an idea? Now that they have such good numbers and, unlike Magdalena Andersson, a clear government background.
And the answer is quite simple: so that Ulf Kristersson would be allowed to keep Sagerska palatset - and help set the political agenda. In Aftonbladet, he writes on Friday evening that "everyone understands that election campaigns can get a little heated, but then we must all be able to talk to each other - and about each other - in a way that does not make future collaborations impossible".
He wants to protect broad agreements in the Riksdag, he writes in his argument for a bourgeois four-party government. But if the Center comes to its senses, and says no to such an SD-supported solution, his words are an excellent starting point for a settlement with Magdalena Andersson.
Maybe Ulf Kristersson says no. But then it will be the Moderates who choose to take Sweden to extra elections.
Together, they could get the energy policy agreement that the business world has been asking for in order to invest in nuclear power, return to a green climate policy, stop teenage deportations - and continue the rapid build-up of the defense.
Anyone who thought that Ulf Kristersson only wanted to take office as prime minister with a majority government consisting of Tidöpartier, now knows that he too is flexible. And unlike the bourgeois four-party government he is testing - which would be very weak - a deal with Magdalena Andersson can offer a completely different kind of dynamism.
A completely different type of mandate.
Maybe Ulf Kristersson says no. But then, just as Ingvar Persson points out, it will be the Moderates who choose to take Sweden to extra elections.
Persson is also honest that the settlement he outlines would be repugnant to him as a social democrat. But he still assesses that it may be the best option available.
And of course: It would of course be a huge loss of prestige for the Social Democrats to make Ulf Kristersson prime minister. On the other hand: Didn't Magdalena Andersson always seem happiest as finance minister?
