Israel supports Ethiopia amid Egyptian escalation over the Renaissance Dam

Israel moved to support Ethiopia at a time that coincided with weeks of Egyptian escalation in its rhetoric towards Addis Ababa, against the backdrop of the Nile water crisis and fears that Egypt’s water share would be harmed as a result of the failure to agree on filling and operating the “Renaissance Dam.”

These moves, the former Minister of Foreign Affairs, member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and Chairman of the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs, Ambassador Mohamed Al-Orabi, downplayed their repercussions, noting that they “will not harm and will not change” Egypt’s positions, according to statements to Asharq Al-Awsat.

Israeli support for Ethiopia

The Israeli Ambassador to Ethiopia, Abraham Negusi, confirmed that Israel “will continue to strengthen its support for Ethiopia, with the aim of helping it become a leading economic power on the African continent.”

The Israeli ambassador explained, in statements reported by Ethiopian media on Friday, that “cooperation between Ethiopia and Israel would help Addis Ababa rely on its own capabilities, preserve its sovereignty, and strengthen its economy,” expressing his belief that “this cooperation will grow stronger and more continuous across new generations.”

He stated that the relations between the two parties “are based on 4 main axes, including cooperation and mutual support in international forums on the basis of common interests, enhancing governmental cooperation between the two countries, in addition to expanding the scope of private investments.”

Al-Orabi confirms, in an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat, that “cooperation between Ethiopia and Israel is not new and has been in place for a long time, and what we are currently witnessing of intense Ethiopian activity and movements towards several international and regional parties comes within the framework of attempts to cover up its internal crises and problems, and in an effort to strengthen its position and appear as the major regional power in Africa, which is contrary to the actual reality.”

He asserts, “These behaviors and political orientations of the Ethiopian government completely contradict the nature of the presence of the African Union headquarters in Addis Ababa. “This requires rethinking and research into different options during the coming period regarding the suitability of continuing the Union’s headquarters there.”

In turn, Ahmed Alaa Fayed, a member of the Foreign Relations Committee of the Egyptian House of Representatives, said in an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat that the Egyptian state is well following and monitoring Israeli movements in the region, including movements with Ethiopia.

He stressed that “if this Ethiopian-Israeli cooperation goes beyond affecting Egyptian interests directly or indirectly, Cairo will certainly take all paths that preserve its rights.”

Egypt's position

This Israeli support for Ethiopia comes amid a sharp Egyptian tone towards Ethiopia regarding the Renaissance Dam. Last August, Egypt stressed more than once that the water issue is “national security and a red line, and that Cairo is capable of defending it,” according to a statement from an official source reported by the Egyptian News Agency. Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdel Ati also hinted at using the “right of legitimate defense” regarding developments in the Nile River file and the Renaissance Dam crisis.

After about less than a decade, negotiations between Cairo and Addis Ababa were frozen for 3 years, before resuming in 2023, then they were frozen again in 2024, amid the refusal of Ethiopia, which is considered an upstream country, to conclude an agreement, and its assertion that it does not harm Egypt or Sudan, the two downstream countries.

Regarding the impact of this Israeli-Ethiopian cooperation in Egypt, Al-Orabi added that Egypt “is moving with steadfastness in the middle of a turbulent and unstable region that is witnessing rapid changes and alliances, and is managing these changes with all wisdom and sobriety in a way that protects its national interests and national security, and is capable of managing the situation, and this will not undermine cooperation or change its positions.”

He stressed that “any growth in regional relations or alliances between Ethiopia and Israel will in no way undermine Egyptian positions in managing its relations, nor will it undermine Egypt’s status and regional weight at all.”

For his part, Ahmed Alaa Fayed believes that “Cairo is capable of preserving its security and rights, and will not accept any infringement on them, especially since it is in agreement with international laws and norms, whether in the Renaissance Dam file or elsewhere, and Ethiopia and Israel know that.”

Over the past years, the Egyptian government has expanded into concluding numerous agreements for “electrical interconnection” with neighboring countries, in a move that it says aims to enhance energy security, which raises questions about the benefits it achieves in the context of securing production and meeting local consumption needs.

Interconnection projects help “secure the networks’ electricity needs at peak times,” according to energy specialists in Egypt, who pointed out that “these projects come within the Egyptian government’s plan to transform into a regional energy center, by enhancing exports to Europe, expanding the production of renewable energy, and opening new markets for it.”

One of the most recent electrical interconnection projects targeted by the Egyptian government is with Italy, as the Minister of Electricity, Mahmoud Esmat, discussed with the Italian Minister of Environment and Energy Security, Gilberto Pitchetto Frattin, “the development of work and developments in implementation of the electrical interconnection project between the two countries, with a capacity of 3,000 megawatts,” according to a statement from the Egyptian Ministry of Electricity.

The Egyptian government has previously announced electrical interconnection projects with Arab countries such as the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iraq, Libya and Sudan, in addition to interconnection with Cyprus and Greece.

Electrical interconnection projects help secure networks and mutual support, according to Egyptian energy expert and former head of the Electricity Utility and Consumer Protection Regulatory Agency, Hafez Salmawy, who said that “the Egyptian government is working to diversify interconnection projects to exchange energy and electricity with these countries during times of peak consumption,” in addition to the contribution of these projects to “transforming Egypt as a regional energy center.”

In statements to Asharq Al-Awsat, Salmawi believes that “connection projects contribute to enhancing electricity production within Egypt, especially from renewable sources.” He pointed out that “the total production of the interconnection projects that Cairo is working on with countries in Asia, Africa and Europe is estimated at about 9 thousand megawatts,” noting that “these projects help export energy to countries in Europe.”

According to the Egyptian Minister of Electricity, his country’s strategic direction “aims to support electrical interconnection projects and integration with the networks of neighboring countries within the framework of a special strategy for interconnection with the European electrical network so that Egypt becomes a regional center for energy exchange and a bridge for transferring and exchanging electricity between the three continents of the world.”

Regional electricity interconnection projects contribute to opening regional markets for energy exchange, according to Hafez Salmawy. He pointed out that “the interconnection projects that Egypt is implementing with Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia, Libya, Jordan and Sudan, pave the way for access to the (Arab Common Market) for energy,” noting that “Egypt has a competitive advantage, as the cost of producing electricity is lower than neighboring countries, which enhances its role in this field.”

In 2016, 16 Arab countries signed a memorandum of understanding to establish a “joint Arab market for electricity” under the umbrella of the League of Arab States, and it entered into force in April 2017. The World Bank participated in preparing the agreements to establish the market, according to a timetable in stages ending in 2038.

Egyptian energy expert, Wael Al-Nashar, believes that “interconnection projects with neighboring countries contribute to reducing the Egyptian government’s electricity reserve capabilities,” noting that “these projects enhance Egypt’s benefit from the reserve capabilities it possesses, especially with the expansion of renewable energy projects.”

Al-Nashar explained in statements to Asharq Al-Awsat that “the Egyptian government’s expansion of electricity production from its renewable sources will achieve an economic advantage for it in exporting electricity to neighboring countries, due to the low cost of production,” and said that “among the advantages of interconnection projects is the provision of alternatives to electricity, especially during peak times.”

The Egyptian government is working to diversify energy sources, by achieving an energy mix, relying on renewable energies and increasing their percentage to reach 45 percent, according to the Egyptian Minister of Electricity, who indicated that his country “is working to open the way for the private sector and rely on it in solar and wind energy projects.”