Coinciding with the outbreak of unrest in the Tigray region, on September 24, Ethiopia began movements with neighboring countries, including Djibouti and Somalia. There are fears that armed movements opposing Abiy Ahmed’s government will cut off supplies coming from Djibouti by land, or that opposing forces in Somalia will move against Ethiopia, according to experts who spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat, noting that Abiy Ahmed’s movements are an attempt to form a regional front from neighboring countries to contain any repercussions of the current escalation.
Geographically, Ethiopia is bordered by 6 countries in the Horn of Africa and East Africa: to the north, Eritrea, to the northeast, Djibouti, to the east and southeast, Somalia, to the south, Kenya, to the west, South Sudan, and to the northwest, Sudan.
The “Tigray forces” seized 3 airports in the region, and launched attacks in the Afar and Amhara regions in cooperation with their allies there since September 24, in the most dangerous escalation since the devastating war that took place between 2020 and 2022 against the federal government forces.
On Monday, an armed group loyal to the Ethiopian government announced that the Ethiopian army and allied militants were able to control the strategic town of Alamata, south of the capital of Tigray, according to Reuters news agency.
Cooperation path
With the outbreak of the Tigray Liberation Front attacks, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed arrived in Djibouti, where he was received by Djiboutian President Ismail Omar Guelleh. Five days later, with the continued military escalation in northern Ethiopia, Abiy Ahmed received, on Monday, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud at Bole International Airport, with the aim of discussing bilateral and regional issues of common interest, according to the Ethiopian Prime Minister’s Office.
The expert in African affairs, director of the Center for East African Studies in Nairobi, Dr. Abdullah Ahmed Ibrahim, believes that Abiy Ahmed’s moves are an attempt to stabilize a network of regional relations at a time when the repercussions of the fighting in Tigray are expanding to the Afar and neighboring regions, with growing fears of the crisis spreading beyond the borders.
The visit of the President of Somalia to Addis Ababa is of special importance. According to Ibrahim, Mogadishu and Addis Ababa are linked to overlapping security and regional files, noting that the goal may also be to secure vital corridors and prevent the crisis in Tigray from affecting Ethiopia’s economic and security interests with neighboring countries.
Meanwhile, African affairs expert at the National Center for Middle East Studies, Hussein Al-Behairi, believes that the current moves of the Ethiopian Prime Minister towards Djibouti and Somalia reflect political rapprochement and security coordination between these countries, in an attempt by Addis Ababa to form a regional front to confront what it considers interference in its internal affairs, with its accusations of both Eritrea and Sudan of supporting the “Tigray People’s Liberation Front” and fueling internal conflicts.
He pointed out that these movements are of particular importance because they coincide with the escalation of military confrontations in the Tigray region, and the formation of an alliance that includes seven armed factions aiming to overthrow the Abiy Ahmed regime. This gives the conflict a new political dimension that goes beyond the traditional military confrontations between the Front and the federal government.
A source of concern
Other neighboring countries remain a source of concern in Ethiopia's calculations with the current escalation. On Friday, the Chief of General Staff of the Ethiopian National Defense Forces, Berhanu Jula, spoke about “foreign powers supporting the modern armed coalition to try to destabilize and weaken Ethiopia,” stressing that “the Tigray Front and the coalition cannot achieve anything on their own, unless they are pushed, supported, and supplied by Sudan, Egypt, and other powers.”
He also affirmed, in statements reported by Ethiopian media, on Friday evening, that Eritrea acts as a mediator between external forces and armed groups inside Ethiopia, indicating that the Tigray Front and Eritrea cannot confront the federal government independently.
The media advisor to the Eritrean Embassy in Cairo, Habib Muhammad Othman, reported on Monday to Asharq Al-Awsat that “what Addis Ababa is currently saying are unacceptable allegations and are not accepted by reality; Because Eritrea did not announce that it wanted to invade Ethiopia, or any of the Ethiopian regions, or threaten Addis Ababa, but rather the opposite is true.
In a Foreign Ministry statement on Monday, Sudan “categorically denied the Ethiopian allegations,” stressing that they were “not based on any basis or evidence,” and stressed that it rejected any attempts to involve Khartoum in internal issues or conflicts that have nothing to do with them.
Likewise, Egypt, which has radical disagreements with Ethiopia over the Renaissance Dam, implicitly denied these “Israeli talks.” Egyptian Foreign Ministry spokesman Ambassador Nader Zaki said in a statement: “Egyptian foreign policy is based on firm principles, foremost of which is respect for the sovereignty of countries and the unity and integrity of their territories, and non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries,” adding: “Therefore, any allegations that question Egypt’s commitment to these established principles are null and void.”
Despite the Egyptian-Eritrean denial, Hussein Al-Behairi pointed out that Addis Ababa will continue to use the accusations as a scarecrow to attract sympathy from the Ethiopian people, provided that the current Ethiopian efforts continue to send direct messages at home and abroad, by appealing to the positions of Djibouti and Somalia to strengthen the position of the federal government and its policies to ensure cohesion and steadfastness in the face of the armed opposition.
Abdullah Ahmed Ibrahim believes that the escalation of Ethiopian accusations against neighboring countries of supporting parties to the conflict increases the sensitivity of the scene and makes any regional alignments more dangerous, noting that Abiy Ahmed’s meetings are an attempt to manage the regional repercussions of the crisis, while seeking to prevent it from turning into a broader conflict in the Horn of Africa.
Egyptians are anticipating an increase in the prices of “free” or tourist bread, according to assurances from the “Bakery Division of the Federation of Chambers of Commerce” indicating an increase of 15 percent, and government assurances that “the demands for this increase will be studied.”
Egypt is witnessing successive waves of high prices and a continuous rise in the prices of most commodities, exacerbated by regional tensions in the region. The government approved increases in the prices of various services (gasoline, electricity, water, communications) last period.
Abdullah Ghorab, head of the General Bakeries Division at the General Federation of Chambers of Commerce, says, “The Ministry of Supply is considering increasing the prices of tourist bread and fino by 15 percent.” He confirms to Asharq Al-Awsat that “the ministry’s final decision regarding the expected increase will be determined early next week.” He explained the Division’s request regarding the increase by saying that “a ton of flour has risen by 4,000 pounds (the dollar equals 52 pounds), and it is difficult for merchants to adhere to the current prices previously set by the Ministry of Supply.”
Minister of Supply and Internal Trade Sherif Farouk explained that “the General Division of Bakeries submitted a request to increase the price of tourist bread by a percentage commensurate with the rise in the price of free flour, in light of the high prices of wheat used in its production.”
He added in televised statements with journalist Amr Adeeb on his program on MBC Misr, on Monday evening, that “the request submitted by the General Division of Bakeries is currently being studied, in addition to carefully reviewing the cost elements, to determine the size of the actual increase in the cost of production, and the extent to which it is reflected in the cost of producing the loaf.”
He also pointed out that “the Ministry of Supply does not deal with the request to increase the price of tourist bread from one angle, but rather reviews the various cost elements and variables related to the production market, in light of the request submitted by the General Division of Bakeries.”
The Ministry of Supply had stressed in a statement, on Monday evening, that the owners of tourist and French bakeries should adhere to Ministerial Directive No. 5 of 2026, which regulates the prices and weights of free bread and fino, stressing that “the ministerial directive is still in effect.”
The Ministry confirmed that “any violation of the provisions of the ministerial directive will be faced with the necessary legal measures against violators, which in some of its provisions amount to imprisonment and a fine.” It also indicated “the intensification of oversight campaigns on bakeries in various governorates after monitoring violations related to prices and weights,” and called on citizens to “report any violations related to the prices or weights of tourist bread and fino.”
Forty-year-old Amina Abdel Hamid, a housewife who lives in the Ain Shams area (east of Cairo), noticed a change in the price of “tourist living.” She says, “A few days ago, the price of a loaf was increased by 50 piasters,” pointing out, “I was buying a small loaf for 2 pounds, and suddenly it reached 2.50 pounds, and when I asked the bakery owner about this increase, he did not answer me.” Abdel Hamid used to buy a small loaf for two pounds and a large loaf for three pounds.
The ministerial directive for “Supply” stipulates that the maximum price for a loaf of free tourist bread weighing 80 grams is two pounds, a loaf of 60 grams weighs at 1.5 pounds, and a loaf of 40 grams weighs at one pound.
“Bread” constitutes the main ingredient on Egyptians’ tables, and according to previous official statistics from the Ministry of Supply, about 73 million citizens receive popular subsidized bread through “ration cards,” which number about 23 million cards. According to observers, “thousands of Egyptians who do not have ration cards are forced to buy (tourist bread) at a free price.”
Merchants and bakery owners are demanding that the Ministry of Supply increase the price of tourist bread in light of the recent rises in the cost of production. Hamdi Farghali (a pseudonym), the owner of a tourist bakery in the Matareya area (east of Cairo), told Asharq Al-Awsat: The prices of tourist bread must be reconsidered in conjunction with the high cost of production requirements, especially flour.
He confirms that “the price of a ton of flour has risen from 16.5 thousand pounds since last June to 20 thousand pounds now.” He points out that “the Ministry promised to review flour prices, and if they continue at their current levels, it will reconsider the prices of tourist bread in light of the new production costs,” but he said that “the Ministry has not determined the percentage of the potential increase at the present time.”
But economic expert Mustafa Badra believes that “it is likely to approve an increase estimated at about 15 percent on (tourist bread) with an increase in wheat, which is estimated at 4 or 5 thousand pounds per ton of wheat.”
He explained to Asharq Al-Awsat that “this increase in wheat has a return and is charged to the final consumer, and this is the policy followed by the government to transfer any increase to the final consumer.” He points out that “as long as there are changes in price levels, they will be charged to the final citizen.”
The announcement of an expected increase in the price of “tourist bread” was not the first. During the past month, the “Bakery Division” said that “there is an increase in the price of tourist bread estimated at about 12.5 percent.”
But Ghorab confirmed that “this increase was not implemented at the time,” explaining: “We asked the ministry for it last August, and we confirmed our desire to do so, and the ministry promised then to study it; But it was not implemented.”
Ghorab is conditional on “the failure to implement the new increase on the stability of supply chains,” and confirms that “a search is underway for new origins of wheat.”
The government had previously raised the price of “subsidized popular bread” in May 2024 from 5 piasters to 20 piasters per loaf, in a move it said at the time aimed to “reduce the subsidy bill for a loaf of bread by about 130 billion pounds annually.”
According to Badra, “There must be a flexible policy with support from the government. Because the cost has become great for the simple citizen, especially in the current circumstances with global political changes,” but he does not rule out another increase in “tourist bread” if fuel prices are raised during the coming period due to the cost of transportation.
