In the Horn of Africa, countries' geopolitical interests overlap, and conflicts and tensions overshadow competition for political influence. In this context, the small state of Eritrea plays a pivotal role: from the ports of Assab and Massawa, this dictatorial regime, ruled for a long time by Isaias Afwerki, has strategically important coastal points on the Red Sea.
Distinctive strategic location
Eritrea's position on this sea lane is gaining increasing importance in light of international trade disputes, as this small country's coastline near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait extends for more than a thousand kilometers.
And if we believe Abdul Rahman Sayed, director of the Horn of Africa Center for Regional Integration in London, this location is bearing fruit at the present time in particular: “Yemen is located on the other side of the Red Sea, which makes the location of Eritrea particularly interesting, as Yemen is going through a crisis and threatens maritime security in the region,” says Sayed in an interview with . DW The only safe route in this area is through Eritrea, where there are currently no security concerns.”
For ten years, Yemen has been witnessing one of the world's most severe humanitarian crises: ongoing violence, economic collapse, droughts and floods have exacerbated the suffering in the country, according to the United Nations refugee agency. Moreover, the terrorist Houthi militia allied with Iran is attacking commercial ships in the Red Sea.
Syed asserts that the strong and entrenched dictatorship in Eritrea does not allow any form of opposition and therefore there are no violent conflicts in the country. Compared to other countries in the region, such as Ethiopia, Sudan, and Yemen, Eritrea appears to be an island of peace that is easy to deal with commercially.
He adds: "This is why all countries, including regional countries such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, which control the Suez Canal, want to establish stable relations with Eritrea."
According to Sayed, the Red Sea has become the most important sea corridor in the world, especially for the Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar.
If the Strait of Hormuz is closed, the only way out is to find routes through Saudi ports on the Red Sea. The Saudis also have pipelines that reach the port of Yanbu al-Bahr on the Red Sea in some areas of the country where oil is extracted and produced.
Ethiopia demands special access to the sea
Expert Syed says that Eritrea's neighboring countries, especially the landlocked country of Ethiopia, have fought hard to control the access corridor to the Red Sea.
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed strongly demands a sovereign exit to the sea. Ethiopia lost this outlet when Eritrea seceded in 1993. In early 2026, already fragile relations with Asmara threatened to escalate in light of the dispute over Ethiopia obtaining its own access to the maritime trade route.
At the same time, a new trade corridor on the Red Sea began to take shape: in May 2026, Eritrea and Egypt signed an agreement to establish direct shipping lines between their ports with the aim of developing independent trade and supply chains on the Red Sea.
For decades, Djibouti dominated regional trade logistics, especially as Ethiopia's most important seaport, while Eritrea suffered from economic marginalization.
Washington's political interests
In late July, a series of diplomatic consultations that took place in Cairo, in which Egypt, Somalia, Eritrea, and a high-level American envoy participated, demonstrated the increasing efforts made by Eritrea in particular to coordinate ways to solve serious security problems in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea.
Michael Woldemariam, a researcher at the University of Maryland School of Public Policy and the Atlantic Council, asserts that “the critical context for Eritrea’s recent strategic maneuvers in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea is the escalating tensions with Ethiopia.”
“Asmara sought partnerships that could serve as a counterweight to Addis Ababa. Speaking to DW, he says: "Its recent active diplomacy towards Egypt, Somalia, the armed forces of the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Ethiopian opposition groups and even the United States should be viewed in light of this background."
The war with Iran reinforced this narrative, as it once again highlighted the central geopolitical importance of narrow sea lanes such as the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab.
On the other hand, it became clear during the talks that took place in Cairo that Washington was interested in strategic influence in the Red Sea region: after his meeting with Eritrean Foreign Minister Osman Saleh, the US President’s African Affairs Advisor, Paulos, said on the “X” SMS platform that the two sides studied ways to enhance cooperation in the fields of trade, regional economic development, and security.
But experts warn that Eritrea itself poses a security risk in other respects: “The country is ruled by one man and there are no constitutional institutions. This makes the country extremely vulnerable if this strongman is removed from power,” Sayed says. Moreover, there is a lack of strong figures who can succeed the 80-year-old in office and ensure a peaceful transfer of power.
A media achievement despite the poor human rights record
Since the country's formal founding 32 years ago, no elections have been held in this one-party system under Isaias' long-standing rule.
The current state's history has long been marked by violence: "The first people fled from Eritrea to Sudan in 1967 to escape Haile Selassie's imperial army. In the 1980s people fled the Ethiopian military dictatorship and since 2001 they have been fleeing human rights abuses, military service, war and lack of prospects," says Magnus Treiber, a migration researcher specializing in the Horn of Africa at the Institute of Ethnology at the University of Munich.
“The reasons for fleeing have not changed much. But since the European Union no longer provides few opportunities to seek asylum, Eritreans and Eritrean women are now fleeing to all parts of the world.”
However, in early August, Eritrea was assigned to chair the UN Human Rights Council's Social Forum, which will meet in October. It is an appointment that sparked international criticism, and the non-governmental organization UN Watch even described it as an “absurd farce”: thus assigning one of the most repressive regimes to promote and protect human rights.
For expert Sayed, this appointment is a public relations success for the government in Asmara: “It provides the opportunity to demand international legitimacy and claim that accusations of widespread human rights violations are false, exaggerated, or politically motivated attempts aimed at damaging the image of Eritrea.”
