
Summary of trends in the film industry, trade tensions, social policies and energy markets
An analysis that covers the relocation of the film industry, trade tensions between Canada and the US, policies against homelessness in Silicon Valley, Saudi Arabia's debt and the loss of influence of OPEC+ in the oil market.
AI-generated summary
The film industry seeks global tax incentives, while trade tensions between the US and Canada affect strategic sectors such as oil and agriculture.
Traditionally, countries, regions, and even cities had fought to attract companies. Now they do it to attract film crews. In the world there are at least 120 territorial entities of all types that have programs to encourage the filming of films, series or advertisements, according to an analysis by the consulting firm specialized in the sector Olsberg SPI. The result is that Hollywood studios have practically stopped making movies in the so-called Thirty Mile Zone (TMZ), which is what the region of Southern California surrounding the studios was called. At TMZ, labor costs were lower due to agreements between studios and unions, but now that competitive advantage has been nullified by aid and exemptions from cities like London. The consequence of this audiovisual relocation could be the loss of 20,000 jobs in Los Angeles.
'The United States signs its agreements in pencil.' In other words: the signature of that country - or, rather, of its president, Donald Trump - is worthless. With those words, the Prime Minister of Canada, Mark Carney, justified the break in trade negotiations with the United States on August 22. Now, both countries have imposed tariffs on each other. But even though the United States has an economy roughly 15 times that of Canada, Ottawa has several tricks up its sleeve. The most obvious, oil: Canada exports 3.9 million barrels a day to the United States, which only sends 383,000 to its neighbor. The most unknown, potash: Canada provides 72.7% of what the US consumes and, without that fertilizer, there is no modern intensive agriculture. The most strategic, the icebreakers: the US only has one to patrol the Arctic; Canada, 20 and, in addition, will provide, together with Finland, 11 more ships of this type to Washington.
Two Anglo-Saxon powers are launching campaigns to end homelessness. In the United Kingdom, Prime Minister Andy Burnham wants every homeless person in the country to have at least one bed in a shelter within four months. In the US, 16 States have already chosen to prohibit the homeless, which includes fining them, expelling them from cities or putting them in jail. The initiatives are legally based on a ruling from the Supreme Court. But the real driver is called Joe Lonsdale (2.2 billion euros worth), a Silicon Valley investor who has been mentored by Peter Thiel. Lonsdale has created his own think tank/lobby, the Cicero Institute to promote, among other things, 'laws to reduce the presence of homeless people on the streets'.
It doesn't seem like the best idea in the world to probe the debt market to try to find out what demand will be for a new bond issue right in the middle of what looks like the beginning of a global public debt crisis. But there are circumstances in which this measure has, at least, mitigating factors. For example, the sector that accounts for a quarter of the national economy has sunk 24.7% compared to a year ago. That is the situation in Saudi Arabia, which is studying a bond issue of 8,000 million dollars in addition to another of 2,800 million last Tuesday. So far this year, the Saudi State and the oil giant Saudi Aramco and the country's sovereign fund have had to issue some 15 billion in bonds, which is equivalent to 1.2% of that State's nominal GDP.
Some data for reflection. In February, OPEC+ produced approximately 48% of the world's oil. Today, Sunday, when that organization holds a new ministerial meeting, the percentage has fallen to 40%. More than half of the decline is due to the cartel's departure from the United Arab Emirates and the rest to the loss of production caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. However, the decline of OPEC+ has been offset by America and, especially, the United States and Canada. In fact, in April and May, the American continent produced 41% of the world's oil. Although two of the countries in that region - Mexico and Venezuela - are in OPEC+, the decline in the cartel's influence is more than evident. The new kings of oil are on the other side of the Atlantic.
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