How would you summarize the meeting between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump last week?
The summit has extended the fragile stability in US-China relations at least until the end of this year. He has strengthened personal relations between the two heads of state. The United States has had some success in the economic sphere. However, they failed to secure new commitments from China on the supply of rare earths, magnets and critical minerals - even though this was a high priority for Trump.
What do you think of all the grand gestures honoring Xi?
Trump places great value on his personal relationship with Xi Jinping and believes that showing him great respect, welcoming him to the plane, and hosting him that lavish state banquet will produce results, if not immediately, then over time. But in all of this, he has handed Xi Jinping a major strategic victory.
Is this more of a domestic or international success for Xi?
It is primarily a domestic political success. Xi Jinping is primarily concerned with his image and his power in his own country. He has been seeking this recognition from the USA for a very long time. In Xi's Great Rejuvenation strategy, gaining this respect is a major success.
And Trump helped Xi achieve this?
Yes. And when the Trump administration accepted the “constructive strategic stability” framework for the relationship last May, that too was part of that success. Xi has been trying for years to get the United States to accept a label for the relationship that provides some predictability and ensures China's interests are protected.
Why is it important that the US has agreed to describe the relationship between the two countries as “constructive strategic stability”? After all, it's just a formulation, right?
The Chinese want to set guardrails for what the US can and cannot do. If the US does something they don't like, the Chinese will protest.
To achieve what he wants, Trump wants to build personal bonds with foreign leaders he considers important. Does this work for Xi Jinping? Is he someone who gives in to certain desires because of a personal relationship?
Xi Jinping will think primarily about the impact on his own rule at home and on Chinese interests as he defines them. He won't do anything for Donald Trump just because he wants him to. On the sidelines, it could make a difference if Xi Jinping really trusted Donald Trump.
But do they trust each other? Trump has said several times that he and Xi are friends.
I don't see them building a trusting relationship. Nevertheless, I find it interesting to watch the videos about this visit. It's rare that Xi Jinping appears so relaxed that you can see him laughing and he's visibly comfortable. And that exchange with President Trump as they walked through the White House - that's unusual for Xi Jinping. He seemed to really enjoy the exchange with Trump. But I don't think we should assume that this will necessarily be reflected in concrete political decisions.
The goal of the US being able to reliably source Chinese critical minerals has not been achieved. However, the US-China Trade Committee has agreed on tariff reductions for certain products. Does it have substance?
It is not a large percentage of Chinese exports to the United States. The percentage is slightly higher for US exports to China. But what's really interesting about it to me is how difficult it apparently was for both sides to identify non-sensitive goods.
What does this mean for the further development of the relationship?
It highlights the intense competition between the two countries. That we try to minimize risks to one another and that we do not want to be dependent on each other in any central supply chains. That we consider many things to be security-relevant that we don't want to sell to others or import duty-free. There is still a possibility that tariffs against China could be increased again. The Chinese have stated in the past that they assume that these will not rise above 20 percent. We'll see if the Trump administration actually sticks with it. There are several factors that could undermine this fragile stability.
Like for example?
On the one hand, if the USA does not receive enough supplies of rare earths. If the US decides to tell the Chinese that they are not honoring the Busan Agreement. A second event that could unsettle stability would be if the US raises tariffs above 20 percent again and the Chinese decide to protest. The third factor could be a large arms sale to Taiwan.
Trump has postponed the decision on a record $14 billion arms sale to Taiwan. Isn't it inevitable that this decision will lead to conflict? He has to make a decision at some point, right?
President Trump will come under increasing pressure from Congress if he delays the decision on arms sales for too long. If Xi and Trump's next two meetings pass without him making the decision, it is possible that the Chinese will give him credit for the delay.
Xi and Trump are likely to meet twice more this year: at the APEC summit in Shenzhen and at the G20 meeting in Miami. What about after these meetings – could he then approve the sales?
The Chinese could tolerate an approval early next year, especially if it were divided into individual tranches. They have stated from the start that they don't like the idea of these record packages. However, I have also heard from Chinese scholars that the Chinese leadership now has higher expectations of the US government. Splitting arms sales into individual parts would therefore not be sufficient, as China now has a different framework for relations. Perhaps that's why they're demanding that no arms sales take place for the remainder of the Trump administration's term.
How important is it from the US perspective that Trump approves the arms sales in the current form and in a timely manner?
Personally, I hope Trump approves these sales now. If he doesn't, Xi Jinping could interpret this to mean that China has the upper hand in the relationship, that the United States needs China more than China needs the United States. This may have consequences for other decisions made by China.
Taiwan was one of the most important topics during the summit. During the visit, Xi Jinping was quoted as saying, "I hope that the United States will stick to the correct position of opposing Taiwan independence and handle the Taiwan issue prudently." How do you interpret this formulation?
I think the Chinese paid close attention to what President Trump said to the media after the Beijing summit in May. He said, “I don’t want anyone to become independent.”
The official wording of the US position, however, is that the US “does not support” Taiwan independence.
Correct. And President Trump did not change the wording in May. He didn't say, "I reject Taiwan's independence," but he did come close to that statement. The Chinese would like to hear him say it openly and clearly. I interpret Xi's quote after the Washington summit as a slight push from the Chinese side to try to put words in President Trump's mouth. Xi is trying to encourage President Trump to say what he wants to hear.
Why does it matter whether President Trump would say that the U.S. “opposes” Taiwanese independence instead of maintaining that the U.S. “does not support” Taiwanese independence?
What the US official position really means is that it insists on a peaceful solution between Taipei and Beijing. The US does not want either side to take actions that would change the status quo. However, if Xi Jinping can get President Trump to say that he “rejects” Taiwan independence, it suggests that if Taiwan were moving towards independence, the US might take proactive steps to prevent it. Because it is something that the USA rejects. It would no longer just be a matter of the USA sitting there with its arms folded and saying: “We don’t support that.” It is a more active term. And it would suggest that the United States would adapt more closely to China's use of language.
What do you expect from the AI dialogue that was agreed upon during the meeting?
I hope it will take place. I hope that there will be technical experts on both sides, that they will meet regularly, that they will have an agenda and realistic goals, and that they can gradually begin to understand each other's positions. We should start small and not try to apply too many lessons from US-Russian arms control, which some people are trying to do.
Why not?
The Chinese definitely don't want to be treated like Russia. They will reject that straight away. And China is a completely different country than Russia anyway. With the Soviet Union we were able to conduct on-site inspections. There has never been a case of on-site inspections with China. They just don't accept it.
What do you think of the “red phone” for dangerous AI incidents described by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent?
This is not the right approach. We tried the Chinese military. They don't answer the phone. This is because of their political system. A person can't answer the phone if they don't know what to say. That would be the end of her career. Maybe even her life. Such hotlines can sometimes be useful in times of peace. So they are not a waste of time. But we should not overstate our expectations that they will be used in a crisis.
