A landslide victory is looming for the Democrats, significantly exceeding expectations. The majority in the Senate is likely to go beyond the already secure 54 seats; in the House of Representatives they now have a secure majority of more than 218 seats and can even count on more than 250 seats in the end result.
“Trump coalition” of 2024 broken up
The post-election polls show that the Democrats have broken up the so-called Trump coalition from the 2024 presidential election. At that time, Trump was also able to win over younger voters, especially men with low incomes and less education, among the classic Republican groups. And he did better among Latinos and blacks than is typical for Republicans.
According to the US news agency AP, the Democrats win more than 70 percent of all votes among 18 to 29 year olds in the House of Representatives election, with 25 percent going to the Republicans. Compared to 2024, that is a gain of around 20 points for the Democrats and a loss for the Republicans.
The Democrats are expected to gain six points among black voters and achieve almost 90 percent of the vote, while among Latinos they will gain seven points nationwide to reach more than 60 percent. In doing so, they are expanding their majority in these voter groups back to previous levels.
Most important topic: economy
As in the pre-election surveys, most respondents named the economy as the most important issue on election day. 39 percent say this, while 32 percent were most concerned with the state of democracy when making their decision. The issue of immigration was only the most important for 14 percent, significantly fewer than two years ago.
A large proportion of Americans are suffering from the drastic price increases since the pandemic. The US war against Iran has caused gasoline and diesel prices to rise further. A fifth of voters say they are in major financial difficulties due to inflation, and another 58 percent feel at least some problems in everyday life as a result.
Responsible: Donald Trump
President Donald Trump is held responsible for this. 65 percent are of the opinion that his policies have worsened the economic situation. Overall, 62 percent of those surveyed are dissatisfied with Trump's work. Only about one in three believe that they have the right priorities, and just as many have the impression that they "fight for people like me." In 2024, his great strength was that people in humble circumstances and with economic problems trusted him.
Historic Democratic victories in Kansas and Texas
Some results are downright humiliating for Republicans. The last time a Democratic senator was elected in Kansas was in 1932, and in Texas in 1988. There, Trump had a lead of 16 and 14 points in the presidential election. In the current Senate election, this has almost been reversed in Texas. The winner, Democrat James Talarico, has a twelve-point lead with 86 percent counting.
This is also a personal defeat for Trump, because Texas is one of the states in which the president massively supported a highly controversial candidate within the party. As Attorney General, Ken Paxton has had to deal with allegations of corruption and abuse of office for years.
What Talarico accomplished in Texas
The Democratic winner Talarico has penetrated deeply into the groups that helped Trump to his second presidency two years ago. He received an impressive 79 percent of the vote among 18 to 29 year olds. And he also received two-thirds of the vote among Latinos, voters with Latin American roots. In Texas, this is now the largest population group, just under 40 percent, with a narrow lead over whites.
