More and more votes in the midterms have been counted, and a look at the data shows that the Republicans are clearly losing support - especially among five groups of voters.
The Democrats have won seven additional states in the Senate and could thus gain the majority.
After the votes have been counted, the Democrats are clearly ahead of the Republicans in the House of Representatives.
The Democrats were particularly able to make gains among women, younger voters, Latinos, Asians and lower income groups.
Donald Trump fears personal consequences if the Republicans lose power in the chambers.
Berlin. A “blue wave” will overwhelm the USA in the so-called midterms and sweep the Democrats to power. At least numerous survey results for the upcoming midterm elections had recently indicated such a development. On election night it was confirmed that many US citizens actually preferred the Democrats.
If you want to get to the heart of the mood among many voters, you can probably summarize it very briefly in the following words: Life is too expensive. The Iran war is too long. US President Donald Trump is too unpopular. In the future, Trump is likely to have to deal with a significantly stronger opposition.
Although not all votes have been counted yet, the Handelsblatt post-election analysis already reveals which groups ensured that the Democrats were able to gain a significant amount of votes. It's clear where support for Republicans has really collapsed.
In the midterm elections in the USA, voters redesignated a new House of Representatives and around a third of the Senate. The two chambers form the Congress, the US Parliament.
For US President Trump, it was about nothing less than maintaining the Republican majority in both chambers. The Senate in particular is currently hotly contested because the Republicans still have a realistic chance of holding the majority.
Two senators per state make up 100 seats in the chamber. In order to take over the majority in the Senate, the Democrats need 51 seats - four more than they previously held. The Republicans, on the other hand, only need 50 votes for a majority, since in the event of a stalemate, Vice President J. D. Vance's vote will have the deciding factor.
Senate – Democrats capture seven additional states
In many regions of the United States, the political orientation of the electorate is so clear that the outcome is virtually certain in advance. However, in seven states, often called battleground states, the race was considered open. Whether the Democrats can actually take power in the chamber will be decided here.
As things stand, CNN reports, the Democrats have been able to take over the majority in the Senate. In addition to Texas, Iowa, Ohio, Maine and Kansas, the Democrats also won North and South Carolina.
This is what it currently looks like in the most hotly contested US states:
The Battleground States
Alaska: no result yet.
Texas: The Democrats were able to win the “Lone Star State” for the first time in a long time.
Kansas: The Midwestern state goes to the Democrats.
Iowa: Democrats can take Iowa from Republicans.
Michigan: no result yet.
Ohio: The state goes to the Democrats.
Maine: The state in the eastern USA also goes to the Democrats.
North Carolina: The Democrats win with a clear majority.
South Carolina: Surprisingly goes to the Democrats.
House of Representatives – Democrats are unassailably ahead
In the House of Representatives election, most observers expected the Democrats to take power in the run-up to the election. The aim was to capture five additional seats out of the 435 seats. That changes the majority situation.
As the US channels CNN and NBC News reported, the Democrats have achieved the majority in the House of Representatives.
The main reason for the significant gain in votes was probably the issue of “affordability”. According to a survey by the consulting firm Gallup, voters are particularly concerned about the economic situation and the sharp rise in health care costs and gas prices. Added to this is the Iran war that Trump started in April.
The topic of “income and inequality” was also an unusually strong focus. In the previous midterm elections, only around 30 percent of voters agreed that this was “extremely important” to them.
Which groups of voters decided against the Republicans?
The post-election survey now shows which groups are particularly responsible for the Democrats' gains, which made gains among both men and women. But female voters in particular chose the Democrats at 58 percent. Two years earlier, their support was five percentage points lower.
The same applies to younger voters: the Democrats made gains in all age groups compared to the previous election. However, it is particularly strong among voters who are 24 years old or younger. The Democrats are far ahead of the Republicans among young voters at 76 percent. Two years earlier, their share was significantly lower at 54 percent.
It also shows that only voters over 65 years of age voted similarly Republican this time as they did two years before.
However, the Republicans lost a lot of votes among Latinos and Asians. While both groups were unusually supportive of Trump in the 2024 presidential election, things turned into the opposite. The Republicans lost more than ten percentage points in both groups.
It can be assumed that the harsh migration policy is primarily responsible for this change in opinion.
The lower income classes in the USA also voted significantly more democratically than before. While only 47 percent of people with incomes under $100,000 voted blue in the last election in 2024, the Democrats are now well above that at 54 percent. Poor voters with annual incomes of less than $30,000 in particular voted for the opposition.
All data so far is preliminary. Counting is currently ongoing in various states. Nevertheless, the expectations of election experts who had predicted a change in political majorities were confirmed.
Election researchers doubted their own forecasts
The leading poll analyst in the USA, Nate Silver, had predicted in the run-up to the election: There was an 82 percent chance for the Democrats of a majority in the Senate and a 96 percent chance of a majority in the House of Representatives.
On Sunday, the New York Times and Siena University also published their latest forecasts and gave the Democrats good chances of success in the seven contested battleground states.
Nevertheless, the pollsters themselves had doubts as to whether their predictions would come true - the numbers pointed too positively towards the Democrats, especially since the number of votes for Trump and the Republicans had been repeatedly underestimated in the forecasts for previous elections. In 2016 and 2020 in particular, the forecasts were significantly below the actual results.
However, as things currently stand, the Republicans' structural underestimation is not confirmed this time. The polls in Texas, Kansas, Maine and Iowa were still below the previous results for the Democrats.
However, the results may still change as the counting continues.
Trump: “They will remove me from office”
Although senators, congressmen and parties were on the ballot in the election and not the US President, US President Trump had repeatedly tried in recent weeks to make the election a vote about himself. “You have to go to the polls and act like I’m on the ballot,” he told voters in Dalton, Georgia, in October. Nevertheless, his approval ratings had recently fallen significantly.
In addition to the threatened loss of power in the two chambers of the legislature, the US President, who has been criticized by the Democrats for rampant corruption, also fears personal consequences: "If we don't win the midterm elections, they will find a reason to remove me from office," Trump told Republican parliamentarians in Washington at the beginning of the year.
