◎ Lin Ruoyun
The ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP) was adopted by ASEAN in 2019, with Indonesia as the leading country. Former President Joko Widodo has promoted its mainstreaming since 2022 and held the AOIP forum in 2023 when Indonesia holds the ASEAN chair. However, the results so far have not met expectations.
The core position of AOIP is to adhere to "ASEAN Centrality" and adopt a balanced diplomacy that does not take sides.
The ASEAN Indo-Pacific Outlook was adopted by ASEAN in 2019, with Indonesia as the main implementing country. The picture shows the red and white flag of Indonesia. (AP file photo) The original purpose was to maintain the "central status of ASEAN" amid the rivalry between the United States and China and the major powers' respective "Indo-Pacific strategies", to prevent ASEAN from being forced to choose sides, and to transform geopolitical confrontation into an inclusive dialogue platform. However, in the more than four years since its implementation, there have been polarizing reviews in the international community, with "low-level political and economic and trade cooperation progressing smoothly, but core strategic and security effectiveness being limited", and its implementation results have not met expectations.
AOIP is not like the Indo-Pacific strategy proposed by former US President Biden in 2022, which clearly points out that China is a threat; or like former Canadian Foreign Minister Michelle Chao, who pointed out that China is an increasingly disruptive global power on the world stage. The main positive results of AOIP: multilateral dialogue and cooperation in low-sensitive areas, emphasizing inclusiveness and cooperation rather than confrontation. The following specific promotion results have been achieved in the four priority areas (maritime cooperation, infrastructure connectivity, sustainable development goals, and economic cooperation):
Strategic alignment and recognition of a major country: Major dialogue partners (Dialogue Partners) such as the United States, Japan, India, and the European Union have successively issued joint statements in support of AOIP. For example, Japan's "Free and Open Indo-Pacific" (FOIP) and AOIP's action plans have been aligned with more than 81% of their action plans; India and the United States have also aligned with ASEAN through various funds and aid programs. Last year, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi participated in the ASEAN Summit and issued a new statement with ASEAN on promoting FOIP. It also clearly linked FOIP with the "ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific" (AOIP) to strengthen cooperation with Southeast Asian countries.
1. Focus on low-sensitivity economy and people's livelihood: Driven by Indonesia's chairmanship (2023) and subsequent countries, the specific results of AOIP are mostly concentrated on "low-hanging fruits" (low-politically sensitive projects), such as green infrastructure, digital development (such as promoting the "ASEAN Digital Economy Framework Agreement" DEFA), cross-border payments, sustainable tourism and plastic reduction and other marine environmental protection projects.
1. Maintain the convening power of the dialogue platform: ASEAN has successfully used existing mechanisms such as the East Asia Summit (EAS) and the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) to hold the "AOIP Forum" and shape the AOIP into an inclusive cooperation structure that is "non-exclusive and not targeted at specific countries."
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi (middle) attended the ASEAN Summit held in Malaysia last year and issued a new statement on promoting the "Free and Open Indo-Pacific" (FOIP), clearly linking FOIP with the "ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific" (AOIP). (Reuters file photo) The ASEAN Indo-Pacific Outlook (AOIP) was vigorously promoted by Indonesia in 2022. It has been more than four years since then. During this period, due to the return of US President Trump to the White House in January 2025, the world has undergone great changes. There have been many changes in tariffs, foreign relations, AI... ASEAN countries cannot bear the drastic changes. Although there has been progress in the integration of diplomacy and economics, most international think tanks and scholars believe that AOIP still faces substantial bottlenecks.
The main challenge and limitation is that AOIP lacks strategic binding force. Key points of the limitations of the analysis are as follows:
1. Slow progress in the field of defense and security: The ASEAN Defense Ministers’ Meeting-Plus (ADMM-Plus) only adopted the implementation concept document in the defense field four years after the publication of the AOIP (2023). It is also limited by consensus and can only approve one informal, one-time event every year, which shows that countries lack enthusiasm and consensus on sensitive security and defense cooperation.
1. Lack of substantive binding force and funds: The AOIP document itself is of a "vision/prospect" nature rather than a binding treaty. It lacks independent operating funds and a clear enforcement timetable, and is often just a formal declaration.
A "minilateralism" that is difficult to compete with major powers: As the confrontation between the United States and China intensifies, the United States and its allies have accelerated the establishment of AUKUS (Trilateral Security Partnership between the United States, Britain, and Australia), Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue), and the exclusive IPEF (Indo-Pacific Economic Framework). These "minilateral" mechanisms are essentially diluting and weakening ASEAN's central leadership ability in the Indo-Pacific regional mechanism.
ASEAN's internal cohesion is facing a test: member states have different attitudes toward the United States and China (for example, Cambodia and Laos are more pro-China; the Philippines, Singapore, Vietnam and other countries seek cooperation with the United States and Japan to varying degrees). In core geopolitical crises such as the South China Sea dispute and civil strife in Myanmar, it is difficult for ASEAN to demonstrate consistent and strong strategic countermeasures through AOIP.
Former Indonesian President Joko Widodo was the main instigator and executor of the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP). (European News Agency file photo) Moreover, from Indonesia’s former President Joko Widodo to current President Prabowo Subianto, Indonesia’s attitude towards promoting AOIP has changed significantly. An in-depth look at the overall situation shows that this transition is from the "institutional creation and comprehensive mainstreaming" of the Jokowi period to the "pragmatic diplomacy and multilateral decentralization" of the Prabowo period. A comparison of the promotion attitudes and core thinking of the two Indonesian governments is as follows: 1. The Jokowi government: the birther and "institutionalization" promoter of AOIP (2014-2024); 2. Prabowo's current government: pragmatism and multilateral diplomacy "beyond ASEAN" (2024 to the present); 3. Prabowo's adoption of economic and national finance supremacy (pragmatism); 4. Prabowo's "decentralization" of ASEAN's diplomatic field.
After the current President Prabowo took office, he actively led Indonesia to join the "BRICS" (BRICS) in 2024 and frequently visited the Middle East and global southern countries. Although he will follow diplomatic practice and reiterate his official position of "supporting ASEAN as the center and supporting AOIP" when attending the ASEAN summit and meeting with Indo-Pacific partners (such as the Prime Minister of Australia and Japan), this is more like a "diplomatic line of defense to maintain regional harmony" rather than a strategic axis for Indonesia to take the initiative.
In a word, the "ASEAN Indo-Pacific Outlook" AOIP promoted by former Indonesian President Joko Widodo is a very successful practice in establishing international dialogue consensus and promoting regional green and digital transformation. However, in terms of resolving geopolitical conflicts, preventing geo-economic fragmentation, and substantively maintaining ASEAN's core dominance in the Indo-Pacific strategy, it is still stuck in the ideal vision stage, and it can be said that the actual effect is relatively limited.
Indonesian President Prabowo has changed his attitude towards promoting AOIP, emphasizing "pragmatic diplomacy and multilateral decentralization." (AFP file photo)
