Singapore, Tokyo, Bangkok. In the ballroom of the Marriott Hotel in Singapore, the babble of voices falls silent when Friedrich Merz enters the room. This Tuesday, the Federal Chancellor will give the 49th Singapore Lecture in the financial metropolis, a keynote speech that is intended to set the programmatic framework for his big trip to Asia.
“We are on the threshold of a new geopolitical era,” begins Merz. “This era will be characterized by new dynamics between the great powers: by breathtaking technological revolutions that extend far beyond artificial intelligence.” And, Merz continues, “the erosion of an international order.”
These dynamics pose challenges not only to Germany and Europe, says the Chancellor, but also to all “middle powers”, including in Asia. “Our freedom, our sovereignty, our security and our prosperity are at stake.”
Russia, which sent shockwaves not only to Europe but to the Indo-Pacific with the attack on Ukraine, is also not leaving Merz out. “Imperialist revisionism doesn’t pay,” that must be the message, emphasizes the Chancellor. He calls on China not to escalate the situation around Taiwan and in the South China Sea.
Almost 30 managers accompany Merz
With this, Merz sets the tone for the coming days. On Monday, the Chancellor left for Singapore, the central economic hub of Southeast Asia and the Indo-Pacific. On Wednesday we continue to Japan, Germany's second most important trading partner in Asia after China, then to South Korea, the third most important. Merz takes five days to visit the three states, his longest foreign trip to date as Chancellor.
Nowhere are the profound geopolitical and technological changes as visible as here, he says. They want to expand strategic partnerships and cooperate more closely on security and defense issues. Agreements with governments and companies are planned in all three countries. Almost 30 managers accompany Merz, including the heads of Airbus, Siemens, DHL, Lufthansa and Deutsche Bank.
Merz sees the three states as his fellow fates. Like Germany, they are challenged: by US President Donald Trump's attack on free world trade, the consequences of his Iran war, China's claim to power and the threat to the international order posed by Russia's war of aggression. And they combine the same principles to which Germany still feels committed: rules and multilateral institutions should continue to order the world, and trade should be as free as possible to stimulate the economy.
The Chancellor is following in the footsteps of Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who spoke in Davos at the beginning of the year of a “rupture” in the world order. Carney's core message at the time: The old order is not returning, the central powers must act together. “If we are not sitting at the table, we are on the menu,” said the Prime Minister in Davos.
In Singapore, the Chancellor now sounds like this: “We will be better able to build balanced relations with China if we ourselves are united, strong, resilient, innovative and competitive,” explains Merz.
Show your own strength without breaking with the USA or China
Since then, it's not just the tone that has gotten worse. Together with French President Emmanuel Macron, Merz pushed for stronger EU instruments against economic blackmail and cheap imports, which some in Berlin viewed as a second turning point.
For a long time, German China policy was aimed at opening up the Chinese market for German exporters. This resulted in close economic ties, from which political advantages were also expected. “Change through rapprochement” was the underlying doctrine.
From the Federal Government's perspective, this approach must now be corrected. Because China has not democratized as hoped, it has become more authoritarian - and is challenging German industry with its state capitalist model.
It is interesting that Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who has long been one of the leading representatives of Germany's policy of integration towards Beijing, is traveling through Asia parallel to the Chancellor. But Steinmeier has also adapted his political convictions to changing realities, at least that's what we see in the Chancellery.
According to those close to Merz, there was close coordination and the new “nuances” of China policy served as a basis: Berlin and its partners want to reduce their dependencies and show their own strength without breaking with Washington or Beijing.
“We have to become more resilient. We continue to seek dialogue,” explains Merz. "Seclusion would be a mistake. It would make us neither safer nor wealthier," he warns.
The Southeast Asian Asean states, which include Singapore, also do not want to take sides in the power struggle between the USA and China and are calling for a rules-based international order. Singapore's Prime Minister Lawrence Wong warned of a "leadership vacuum" in the world order in which breaking the rules would have hardly any consequences: "All of this makes the world more dangerous," he said.
Smaller countries like Singapore are more exposed to pressure from major powers, warned Wong. A deeper exchange with Europe is therefore in the interest of both sides. Merz and Wong will also discuss this at a bilateral meeting on Tuesday.
“Together, Europe and the countries of the Indo-Pacific have considerable influence in security policy, in economic strength and in shaping standards,” said the Chancellor on stage. “Together we represent a third of world trade.”
Merz wants EU trade agreements with the entire Asean bloc
A lot has happened in the region since then. An EU free trade agreement with Singapore has been in force since 2019, and one with Vietnam since 2020. Last year, the EU agreed on a trade agreement with Indonesia that could come into force in 2027.
There was a political agreement on a free trade deal with the Philippines in September. According to the participants, negotiations with Thailand and Malaysia are nearing completion.
The Chancellor now wants to take the “next step in trade policy” and is in favor of an EU trade agreement with the entire Asean bloc. The previous agreements should be coordinated with one another.
“This is a conscious counterpoint to what we are currently seeing in terms of restrictions on global trade,” says Merz, also with a view to the USA. If Europe, the Asean countries as well as Japan and South Korea joined forces, they could catch up with the USA and China in AI, emphasizes Merz.
Japan is planning a multilateral trade and security system
On Wednesday, the Chancellor will fly to the largest counterweight to China in the region, with which the EU has had a free trade agreement since 2019: Japan, Germany's second largest trading partner in Asia. In 2025, the bilateral trade volume was over 43.1 billion euros.
The trip is flanked by the major military exercise “Keen Sword”, in which the Bundeswehr is taking part with 100 soldiers. While Merz arrives in Japan, Japan's armed forces and their allies practice defending the southern Japanese island chain against possible attacks from China with around 50,000 soldiers.
This gives a taste of the big talking points with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. Japan, a member of the G7 and a close ally of the USA, is heavily arming itself. In Asia, it is building a counterweight to China with its military and economic and political networks.
Japan has also significantly reduced its dependence on supplies from China, for example rare earths for the production of high-tech products. The impetus was a real stress test. In 2010, China stopped deliveries of rare earths to Japan for two months, and Tokyo was forced to develop alternatives.
Under the slogan of a free and open Indo-Pacific (FOIP), Japan wants to establish a multilateral trade and security system that contains China's expansionist aspirations. Tokyo wants to gain independence as a middle power without giving up its ally in Washington.
At the end of the week, the Chancellor will open the 19th Asia-Pacific Conference of German Business in Seoul. South Korea has been a free trade partner of the EU since 2011. On June 1, both sides signed a digital trade agreement. The openness towards guests from Germany is correspondingly great.
