APEC summit meeting with Trump and Putin "New York Times": Xi Jinping may be a little embarrassed

The heads of state of the United States, China and Russia may meet during the APEC Summit in Shenzhen. The New York Times analysis pointed out that China’s negative perception of the Yalta secret treaty and that the talks may involve the Ukrainian war and nuclear weapons issues have put Chinese President Xi Jinping in an embarrassing situation.

China confirmed on the 4th that it is negotiating with Russia and the United States on a meeting between the leaders of the three countries. The meeting may take place during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Economic Leaders' Meeting to be held in Shenzhen, China from the 18th to the 19th.

Analysts pointed out that the summit may enhance Xi Jinping's status. But negotiations over Ukraine's future and nuclear weapons limits are a tricky choice for China. Another difficulty is China's negative perception of the Yalta Treaty.

In early 1945, the leaders of the United States, the Soviet Union, and the United Kingdom met in Yalta and reached a secret agreement, promising to give Moscow special rights in China in exchange for the Soviet Union's participation in the war against Japan. But China did not participate in the negotiations. "This is a historical lesson in great power politics that China will never forget," said Xin Qiang, an expert on Sino-US issues at Fudan University in Shanghai.

Analysts pointed out that this meeting may consolidate China's ambition to become an indispensable global power on an equal footing with the United States, but it may also repeat the historical mistakes of Beijing's claim to oppose great power game. Russia's idea of ​​holding the meeting has sparked concerns in Ukraine.

China is unwilling to provide a platform for Russia and the United States to reach an agreement on the Ukrainian issue. Doing so would contradict Beijing's position that peace talks require the participation of Ukraine and Europe.

German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who previously visited Beijing, told German media that when he met with Xi Jinping, Xi Jinping made it clear that the United States, Russia and China would not discuss the fate of Ukraine in Shenzhen.

"You could see the irritation on his face. He even asked where these rumors came from," Steinmeier said. "He made it clear that this was a European conflict and Europeans had to be involved in the negotiations."

It is pointed out that Beijing is also unwilling to discuss the issue of nuclear weapons. The last nuclear arms control treaty between the United States and Russia expired in February this year. But for Beijing, the issue is simply off the table. Under Xi Jinping, China has abandoned its decades-long strategy of maintaining a "minimum deterrent" nuclear arsenal. China is amassing a nuclear arsenal that rivals Washington and Moscow and has refused to limit its development.

Last month, when asked whether China agreed to discuss denuclearization with the United States and Russia in Shenzhen, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Mao Ning said the primary responsibility for disarmament lies with Washington and that requiring China to participate in nuclear disarmament negotiations is "unfair, unreasonable, and unrealistic."

However, Zhao Long, a security expert at the Shanghai Institute of International Studies, said China may be willing to negotiate to reduce the risk of nuclear conflict. This could include improving communication channels during crises and ensuring that countries maintain human control over nuclear decision-making even in the age of artificial intelligence (AI).

In the eyes of many Western officials, China plays a key role in influencing Moscow because Russia is highly dependent on Beijing both diplomatically and economically. But for Beijing, China has little to do with a conflict it neither started nor provided military support for.

Some Chinese analysts believe the best Beijing can do is cooperate with the talks while trying to avoid giving the impression that it can pressure the Kremlin.