Berlin. There is great fear of artificial intelligence (AI) as a job killer, and the forecasts are sometimes very bleak. The Munich Ifo Institute has therefore developed a new indicator to evaluate the influence of AI specifically for 140 professions - at the same time separated by age groups.
According to this, the increasing use of AI in companies has so far primarily affected young job seekers: their opportunities are decreasing in professions that are heavily exposed to AI. "So far we have not seen any widespread job cuts due to AI. But those who start their careers are the first to feel the change," says Ifo President Clemens Fuest.
The indicator compares employment and attitudes by age in the 140 occupations. He relates it to how big the role of AI already is in these professions today. This shows that in the occupations least exposed to AI, employment has fallen by 6.4 percent since the third quarter of 2022. In contrast, employment in the occupations most affected by AI actually grew: by a total of 1.8 percent.
However, full-time employment among 20 to 24-year-olds in the most exposed occupations fell by 14 percent, from around 279,000 to 239,000 cases. "Starting a career is the labor market's early warning system. Here we should observe the consequences of AI long before they become visible in productivity growth," says Oliver Falck, head of the Ifo Center for Innovation Economics and Digital Transformation.
According to the findings of the Ifo experts, what is crucial is how AI is used. "Whether AI complements or automates tasks makes the difference for career starters. In areas such as supporting office work or IT support, which previously offered good entry-level opportunities, AI can already take on many tasks," says Ifo economist Yuchen Guo.
The indicator also provides information for the European Union: where AI primarily automates, young employees are hired less often than older ones. However, the authors emphasize that the indicator describes a development. However, it cannot be deduced from this that the increased use of AI alone is responsible for this development.
At the same time, it must also be examined what influences demographic change, longer training periods or more difficult training have due to the widespread home office. It is therefore necessary to continue to monitor attitudes differentiated by age and professional groups - and to also take the latest AI technologies into account.
The CEO of the Federal Employment Agency, Andrea Nahles, assumes the following scenario: “In the next 15 years, around 800,000 jobs will be lost in Germany due to AI - but a similar number will also be created,” she told the Handelsblatt, referring to analyzes by the Institute for Labor Market and Occupational Research (IAB). Even if employment in some sectors is hit harder. “I would still like to see more investment in AI in Germany – but only if it brings productivity, not because it’s chic.”
Young academics now need “longer to start their careers and may not get their dream job – but they still have far better chances than everyone else,” said Nahles. In addition to AI, the weak economy is also responsible for this.
On the other hand, professions have proven to be robust, especially in the craft sector, because there cannot be done without human work. “Even semi-skilled and unskilled people still have opportunities because it is sometimes not worth replacing them with AI.” According to IAB data, one in four companies will be using AI by 2025.
The new Federal Labor Minister Alexander Schweitzer (SPD) has just announced free AI courses for everyone from 2027. “We have to ensure that everyone benefits from progress through AI and other technologies – including materially,” he said at the digital summit in Berlin at the beginning of November.
“Productivity gains through AI are not automatic,” he added. Therefore, the change through AI must be designed in such a way that “human work becomes more productive and better and new jobs are created”. The aim is for AI to ensure more productivity and benefit employees instead of replacing them.
AI courses are planned for various target groups - from a quick overview to in-depth learning. They are intended to convey basic knowledge to understand AI, question it critically and use it yourself. The basis is the internationally known course “Elements of Artificial Intelligence”, which was developed by the Finnish education provider Minna Learn and the University of Helsinki.
