ARD interview on AfD success in Saxony-Anhalt and political consequences

ARD capital studio: For the first time, the AfD could be the prime minister in a federal state - why in Saxony-Anhalt of all places?

Petra Dobner: I believe that the AfD operates with few facts and a lot of emotions. And Saxony-Anhalt is a state with a high level of volatility among voters and obviously also with a great willingness to undertake this experiment now. We will see what comes of it in the next few weeks, months and years. If it even takes years.

People always say it's the economic situation, and of course there are many problems. But the fact that there are many problems is no reason to believe right-wing extremists who promise to do everything differently straight away. And I think that has to do with a lot of frustration, not just about the economy. Almost half are willing to believe something that will not come true.

East German interests were served by the AfD

ARD Capital Studio: In recent weeks there has been discussion about the special role that East Germany plays. Is this also about feeling misunderstood by West Germans?

Dobner: Well, at least the East German interests have been served and managed pretty well by the AfD - or what has been called East German interests. Whether it's the Simson that you drive through the country with, or Chrupalla, who just accused Merz on television of still not understanding the East Germans. Apparently it pulled.

ARD-Hauptstadtstudio: But do you see a real background to this?

Dobner: In my opinion, exactly this discrepancy existed throughout the entire pre-reunification period, i.e. in the years from the Second World War until reunification. The differences between East and West not only on the part of the states, but also on the part of the international community: as an iron curtain, as a bloc. There were also different realities of life: some could travel and others couldn't, and so on. There was a superiority and a subordination in the political and also in the social discourse.

I think it was a mistake to assume that this would simply disappear in 1990 and would be a thing of the past on the day of reunification. This led to the formation of mentalities that, in my opinion, were gaining strength in the East, especially among young people - a new East German feeling, so to speak. As far as observation goes, I don't think it makes sense. Because this is reviving traditions that no longer have anything to do with the realities in many places.

BSW breaks away from the federal party

ARD Capital Studio: Another interesting result was achieved by a second party, the BSW - although the party fell apart on Friday in Thuringia when the state parliamentary group resigned almost entirely because they no longer wanted to work with Sahra Wagenknecht. Given this background, are you surprised by the BSW result?

Dobner: Not really. The BSW is very heterogeneous. You mentioned Thuringia, and you're obviously setting yourself apart from the federal party there. And the federal party also fluctuates in its positions, but of course also serves certain interests, i.e. the search for peace, the hope for gas from Putin or whoever. This also falls on fertile ground here.

The election result initially applies to Saxony-Anhalt

ARD capital studio: You are in Saxony-Anhalt. Was this an election for Saxony-Anhalt by the voters in Saxony-Anhalt? Six out of ten voters told Infratest dimap that it was also a reminder for Berlin.

Dobner: That's often the case in state elections that you not only vote for the federal state, but at the same time you also think you have to give something to the federal government. That will not change the fact that this election result now counts for Saxony-Anhalt and then has to be dealt with in Saxony-Anhalt. With whatever consequences.

The voters may have meant it that way, and the AfD acted in many places as if it could now change something in federal policy. If you look at the election manifesto, there are numerous places where the claimed competences go far beyond the country. First of all, it is a result for Saxony-Anhalt.

“There will be a lot of pressure”

ARD-Hauptstadtstudio: Would you label this election as historical?

Dobner: Yes, historically I would say it is a dramatic historical moment. A federal state, with almost half of its voters, was able to imagine a firmly right-wing extremist party as the governing party.

It remains to be seen to what extent the AfD will succeed in changing the country. On a symbolic level - and this is how the 100-day program reads - we will certainly see a lot in the next few weeks and months. There will be a lot of pressure on schools, on culture and so on. But promises have also been made about which one could say: If you can do that, then that would be good. So when it comes to improving the infrastructure or something similar. There just isn't enough money for that.

Federal parties should not follow the AfD course

ARD Capital Studio: Another very brief look at federal politics. The AfD is now leading in nationwide surveys ahead of the CDU when it comes to the Sunday question - what should happen now at the federal level?

Dobner: The federal parties will now have to think about that. We'll see in the next few days and weeks, and whether heads will actually roll, as has already been demanded. I think the really big problem is that we really are living in a lot of crises. And those who promise to get us out of these crises quickly and at no cost are simply ignoring the fact that it is very complex. And I believe that the federal parties would be well advised not to follow this course and not make these promises.

We can't just end the war in Ukraine, we can't just get gas, we can't do all of these things and we can't just stop climate change, and that's why I think my basic advice is: keep a cool head!

ARD Capital Studio: Heads roll, you took aim at Chancellor Merz. Do you expect him to have to resign?

Dobner: That will perhaps also depend on how the next elections turn out. So maybe he can survive Saxony-Anhalt, but if Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin show similar results, then I really see black for Merz.